I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED!!!
- Thread starter morekaos_IHB
- Start date
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Well GM and Dodge/Chrystler are the ones that are hurting. Ford has said they have enough money to get thru 2010 to 2011.... It still won't be fun. I wonder what the hold up was?
-bix
Swing, swing, swing...I still think the 7450 will hold
I dunno, maybe the word "bubble" is being used appropriately here.
Treasury Bubble Talk Grows as U.S. Gets Free Money
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The rally in Treasuries that pushed yields on bills below zero percent this week is adding to concerns that the $5.3 trillion market for government debt is a bubble waiting to burst.
Not as bad as the futures predicted...No?
Depends when you open and closed your position, especially at the open they were right. But if you still had an open short position, then at the end of the day you would be mad at the futures. I usually don't think futures mean much at that early of an hour, it was before Europe even opened, but with all the other markets getting whacked I thought they might have some substance. Mind you, this isn't the first time I have posted what the futures were doing at that hour and then at the end of the day they have been totally wrong, it probably won't be the last time I post the futures and have them be wrong. But, that is part of the fun of it
Dow 8629,,,,so far Upper I am even
You're crazy.
I think shorting treasuries is a great thing and I hate Ultrashort ETFs or ETFs in general along with mutual funds etc.
When to short treasuries is the real question. If you can't answer that you shouldn't do it. Most looked at oil of $100 a barrel and said this is overpriced and shorted. Guess what...most of their investments vanished through margin calls or stop losses as oil shot to $140+. Very few shorted at $100 and lived to tell a great story. I knew this one guy who shorted yahoo when it was several hundred dollars a share. He was certain that the market will crash, and it did. But after spending over 70K on margin calls, he couldn't keep up anymore and had to fold as Yahoo kept shooting up. Not long after, Yahoo was trading at $50 bucks or so...today around $10. He would have been a millionare...easy. But his timing was off.
Then not sure how you short treasuries, so it could be a different investment vehicle with different capital requirements for shorting. Not my ball game, but it makes sense.
So just throwing caution to the wind. When shorting, timing has to be pretty perfect unless the percentage you are shorting is very small to your overall capital.
I would divide my total short position into four parts. I would short now ... wait ... see if the price goes up smore ... if it does, short smore ... repeat until position is on. If price goes down, be happy with whatever position entered, even if only the first entry, and have fun. Same with oil. Who needs to enter at the bottom? Who can?
We did not sell our home at the very top. And we will not wait until the absolute bottom before pulling the trig on a home. Who can know the bottom until it has passed?
Have to know when reasons for entering trade have changed in case you need to exit, and have to know reasons for entering trade so that if the price goes against you, you are not chased out just by price.
Trooper_IHB
New member
The auto bailout bill just died in Senate.....CNN reporting.
biscuitninja_IHB
New member
Trooper said:
Well GM and Dodge/Chrystler are the ones that are hurting. Ford has said they have enough money to get thru 2010 to 2011.... It still won't be fun. I wonder what the hold up was?
-bix
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
Unions, what else.biscuitninja said:
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
Wow, the 30-year bond is under 3% at 2.99% while the 10-year is under 2.50% at 2.49%. We really are heading to a 10-year bond yield below 2%.
morekaos_IHB
New member
blackvault_cm said:
Swing, swing, swing...I still think the 7450 will hold
toady9_IHB
New member
Do ya'll think the TARP will now go to the auto industry?
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/11/news/companies/whitehouse_warning/index.htm?postversion=2008121123
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/11/news/companies/whitehouse_warning/index.htm?postversion=2008121123
graphrix_IHB
New member
Ack... be prepared for brutal day. Asian markets got whacked, and US futures look brutal. Why? Because of news, the news that the auto bailout failed in the senate. Oh... and Harry "The Giant Douche" Reid said that he dreads... just dreads looking at what happens on Wall St. tomorrow. Gee... thanks for the positive outlook there Harry. Here... I have some razorblades for you. Oh, let me help you with that, not across the arm but up and down, let me show you. F'ing moron.
And for fun, here is the Clapper version of the guberment.
And for fun, here is the Clapper version of the guberment.
morekaos_IHB
New member
awgee said:
I dunno, maybe the word "bubble" is being used appropriately here.
Treasury Bubble Talk Grows as U.S. Gets Free Money
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The rally in Treasuries that pushed yields on bills below zero percent this week is adding to concerns that the $5.3 trillion market for government debt is a bubble waiting to burst.
no_vaseline_IHB
New member
morekaos_IHB
New member
graphrix said:
Not as bad as the futures predicted...No?
graphrix_IHB
New member
morekaos said:
Depends when you open and closed your position, especially at the open they were right. But if you still had an open short position, then at the end of the day you would be mad at the futures. I usually don't think futures mean much at that early of an hour, it was before Europe even opened, but with all the other markets getting whacked I thought they might have some substance. Mind you, this isn't the first time I have posted what the futures were doing at that hour and then at the end of the day they have been totally wrong, it probably won't be the last time I post the futures and have them be wrong. But, that is part of the fun of it
morekaos_IHB
New member
just funnin with ya
morekaos_IHB
New member
upperlowerclass said:
Dow 8629,,,,so far Upper I am even
morekaos_IHB
New member
Call me crazy but I am thinking of going short the gov bonds. PST and TBT.
jbenko_IHB
New member
morekaos said:
You're crazy.
jbenko_IHB
New member
awgee said:
I think shorting treasuries is a great thing and I hate Ultrashort ETFs or ETFs in general along with mutual funds etc.
When to short treasuries is the real question. If you can't answer that you shouldn't do it. Most looked at oil of $100 a barrel and said this is overpriced and shorted. Guess what...most of their investments vanished through margin calls or stop losses as oil shot to $140+. Very few shorted at $100 and lived to tell a great story. I knew this one guy who shorted yahoo when it was several hundred dollars a share. He was certain that the market will crash, and it did. But after spending over 70K on margin calls, he couldn't keep up anymore and had to fold as Yahoo kept shooting up. Not long after, Yahoo was trading at $50 bucks or so...today around $10. He would have been a millionare...easy. But his timing was off.
Then not sure how you short treasuries, so it could be a different investment vehicle with different capital requirements for shorting. Not my ball game, but it makes sense.
So just throwing caution to the wind. When shorting, timing has to be pretty perfect unless the percentage you are shorting is very small to your overall capital.
awgee_IHB
New member
blackvault_cm said:
I would divide my total short position into four parts. I would short now ... wait ... see if the price goes up smore ... if it does, short smore ... repeat until position is on. If price goes down, be happy with whatever position entered, even if only the first entry, and have fun. Same with oil. Who needs to enter at the bottom? Who can?
We did not sell our home at the very top. And we will not wait until the absolute bottom before pulling the trig on a home. Who can know the bottom until it has passed?
Have to know when reasons for entering trade have changed in case you need to exit, and have to know reasons for entering trade so that if the price goes against you, you are not chased out just by price.