US population is projected to grow by only 1 million/yr for the next 20 years. If you assume 2.4 people per household that's only
420,000 new households per year. Currently, there are about
1.7 million homes under construction and the long term average is about 1 million per year.
At this rate, there is not going to be a supply shortage for very long -- maybe a few more years -- but eventually there will be overcapacity in the building industry, and not enough buyers/renters for all the new units being built.
Calculated Risk: New Census Long-Term Population Projections Are MASSIVELY Lower Than Previous Projections
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The huge differences in the latest population projections from those in 2017 reflect (1) much lower projections for births; (2) higher projections for deaths; and (3) significantly lower projections for net international migration.
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Last Friday Census released new long-term projections of the US resident population, this time going out to 2100. The last time Census released long-term population projections was in 2017 (going out to 2060), and the 2023 projections for the “middle” scenario...
calculatedrisk.substack.com