Goodbye IHB

[quote author="momopi" date=1239003201]Did anyone read this?



<a href="http://findmylandmark.com/Irvine-market-analysis-2000-2800-square-feet-1990-or-newer-n26645.html">http://findmylandmark.com/Irvine-market-analysis-2000-2800-square-feet-1990-or-newer-n26645.html</a></blockquote>


I thought Irvine Renter didn't like Realtors who made typos and spelling mistakes.



<blockquote>If you say <span style="color: red;">byer's</span> market, you are not alone, however, currently you are wrong. Moreover, until you have tried to buy a home in Irvine you will not understand how much of a seller's market it truly is! Don't take my word for it, the numbers speak for themselves. Let's take detached homes in Irvine between 2000 and 2800 square feet, with at least 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, built since 1990, and <span style="color: red;">lsted</span> since June 1, 2008. Contact Us



* he average home in this range sold for $802,979

* The average sales price was $344/square foot

* The average home sold for 96.83% of original asking price

* The average home sold fr 98.43% of list price (price the property was listed price at the time the deal was reached)

* The average home sold in only 34 days, this includes any short sale istings that were listed since June 1st and closed escrow on or before February 22, 2009<span style="color: red;">.Cotact</span> Us



Search the MLS for free



*a buyers market occurs when there is 6 months worth of inventory. Current inventory is <span style="color: red;">mis-leading</span> because there are a number of short sales on the market listed as active that have multiple offers but are waiting for bank or investor responses.

* The average home that was listed and sold in this time frame was on the market for only 34 days. Contact Us



Search the MLS for free



If those stats were not telling enough;



* 16 <span style="color: red;">ot</span> of the 52 home, nearly 31% sold for at or above asking price.

* for exactly 100%

* 7 for 100.01%-103.9%

* 5 for 104%-109%

* The highest sold for 110% above original asking, in 12 days, at $408/square foot Contact Us



Search the MLS for free

</blockquote>
 
[quote author="CK" date=1239007113][quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1238992733]...well my only advice is don't judge until you have a reason to judge. </blockquote>


Best comment I've seen on this. I'm in this camp as well. </blockquote>


I agree with you...However, IR has judged and has picked up a side... and can't make himself more clear: you are a knife catcher if you buy above rental parity.
 
[quote author="irvine123" date=1239008938][quote author="CK" date=1239007113][quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1238992733]...well my only advice is don't judge until you have a reason to judge. </blockquote>


Best comment I've seen on this. I'm in this camp as well. </blockquote>


I agree with you...However, IR has judged and has picked up a side... and can't make himself more clear: you are a knife catcher if you buy above rental parity.</blockquote>
I have no problem with IR and Z doing what they are doing, the issue I have is with who they are teaming up. I personally think that their venture would have been that much more successful with the inclusion of IR2. That being said, I do wish them the best of luck on their business venture.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1239009807][quote author="irvine123" date=1239008938][quote author="CK" date=1239007113][quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1238992733]...well my only advice is don't judge until you have a reason to judge. </blockquote>


Best comment I've seen on this. I'm in this camp as well. </blockquote>


I agree with you...However, IR has judged and has picked up a side... and can't make himself more clear: you are a knife catcher if you buy above rental parity.</blockquote>
I have no problem with IR and Z doing what they are doing, the issue I have is with who they are teaming up. I personally think that their venture would have been that much more successful with the inclusion of IR2. That being said, I do wish them the best of luck on their business venture.</blockquote>


just to be clear, I have zero issue with what they are doing, not that they need any of our approvals. (they don't owe us an approval, BTW). Me too wish them best of luck. Whoever IR chooses to team with is even more an irrelevance issue with us bloggers.



In case I didn't do a good job of explaining, my biggest concerns is that to do what he is doing, and be great at it requires him to change the way he approaches the market, and require him to change the tone he approaches things. It is very easy to be a hypocrite ( I am not accusing anyone of being one yet, but I hope you all get what I am trying to say). For example: calling out a MLS listing for their WTF price, while you have one listed under your own agency; calling a buyer knife catcher, while just completed a transaction with your own client at a similar price. Maybe I am not just smart enough, I don't know how one can reconcile this issue while still being a good agent while continue to provide unbiased analysis. This is the fourth time I try to ask this question, but no one seems to be willing to respond. why this is important? straight goes to ones credibility for what has said, and what about to be said. I will rest on this subject, as I think I am repeating myself.
 
I wish them both good luck on their adventure. IR doesn't make this site, I am sure he did originally but he rarely adds anything to the forums anymore. It is the people which joined and participate in the forums which make this site for me. The people like bkshpr/graphrix/IR2/IPO/cayce/awgee/Ten/Momopi/So cal/(even panda)/etc. who make this site interesting. If IR causes these people to stop submitting to the forum because they believe he has sold out or he censors the info then I will stop reading the forums since there will no longer be anything worth reading. But until that happens I wish him all the best.
 
I wish them both the very best..



IR, Z and others have put a lot of hard work into IHB, it's a great resource and I'm sure it will continue to be...



Good luck Guys!!
 
I think the IHB forums will survive, there's just too much good stuff and good people here. Good luck to IR in his endeavors.
 
[quote author="irvine123" date=1239011258][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1239009807][quote author="irvine123" date=1239008938][quote author="CK" date=1239007113][quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1238992733]...well my only advice is don't judge until you have a reason to judge. </blockquote>


Best comment I've seen on this. I'm in this camp as well. </blockquote>


I agree with you...However, IR has judged and has picked up a side... and can't make himself more clear: you are a knife catcher if you buy above rental parity.</blockquote>
I have no problem with IR and Z doing what they are doing, the issue I have is with who they are teaming up. I personally think that their venture would have been that much more successful with the inclusion of IR2. That being said, I do wish them the best of luck on their business venture.</blockquote>


just to be clear, I have zero issue with what they are doing, not that they need any of our approvals. (they don't owe us an approval, BTW). Me too wish them best of luck. Whoever IR chooses to team with is even more an irrelevance issue with us bloggers.



In case I didn't do a good job of explaining, my biggest concerns is that to do what he is doing, and be great at it requires him to change the way he approaches the market, and require him to change the tone he approaches things. It is very easy to be a hypocrite ( I am not accusing anyone of being one yet, but I hope you all get what I am trying to say). For example: calling out a MLS listing for their WTF price, while you have one listed under your own agency; calling a buyer knife catcher, while just completed a transaction with your own client at a similar price. Maybe I am not just smart enough, I don't know how one can reconcile this issue while still being a good agent while continue to provide unbiased analysis. This is the fourth time I try to ask this question, but no one seems to be willing to respond. why this is important? straight goes to ones credibility for what has said, and what about to be said. I will rest on this subject, as I think I am repeating myself.</blockquote>


A knife catcher is not defined by rental parity. A knife catcher is one who tries unsuccessfully to buy an asset at the bottom of that asset's high/low cycle. Specifically to the IHB, a knife catcher is someone who buys a home during the downtrending market and justifies their decision to themselves or others by saying that they know the market will not decrease by more than another 5% or 10% and they do not mind losing that much in equity. Mostly they have few or no fact based reasons why the market will not decrease by more than 5% or 10%.







Let us pretend I am a realtor. Prospective buyer tells me they want to buy and where they want to live, how much they have to spend and borrow, etc. They ask me a bunch of questions about homes and the area and then they ask if I think home prices in my area will continue to fall. If I am a salesman, I will say whatever it takes to make the sale and commission. If I am a professional I will tell the truth and give my opinion based on evidence and expertise and integrity.





If a prospective home buyer buys with the idea that they are buying at close to the bottom of the market, and they have scant evidence to back up that opinion, they are a knife catcher. If a prospective home buyer buys knowing full well that the evidence asserts that home prices will continue to decline precipitously and they want to buy anyways because it makes sense for them, they are not a knife catcher. They are a home buyer. Do you see the difference?





Why does anybody think that Larry will not give his true and full opinion on buying in this market? The last I checked, his opinion is public knowledge on this blog and in a book. IMO, the folks who are saying that Larry is selling out have not thought this through and are reacting to their personal experience with realtors instead of their experience with Larry and Zov.





I earn a chunk of my income representing taxpayers in audits, responding to IRS assessments, and preparing tax returns. If you asked me my opinion on income taxes and the IRS, I would say they both should be abolished immediately, (and I can tell you the reasons why), which would decrease my income. If I was a realtor, I would have no problem telling a client my opinion of the re market. And I would no problem telling a prospective buyer that they should not buy if they are counting on any appreciation within the next few years or are not considering the effect of a major decrease in equity. USCtroj, Deuce, and Larry do the same on this public blog. IMO, if you think that Larry is going to all of a sudden change his tune, I do not know what to tell you, other than to ask what you base that thought on. When I actually set the thought down and put it to words, I realize how preposterous it is.









And one more thing. The next time I start a business, I sure as heck ain't gonna care what bloggers think of my partner choices. (Boy, that oughta get someone pissed, eh?)
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1239019572][quote author="irvine123" date=1239011258][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1239009807][quote author="irvine123" date=1239008938][quote author="CK" date=1239007113][quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1238992733]...well my only advice is don't judge until you have a reason to judge. </blockquote>


Best comment I've seen on this. I'm in this camp as well. </blockquote>


I agree with you...However, IR has judged and has picked up a side... and can't make himself more clear: you are a knife catcher if you buy above rental parity.</blockquote>
I have no problem with IR and Z doing what they are doing, the issue I have is with who they are teaming up. I personally think that their venture would have been that much more successful with the inclusion of IR2. That being said, I do wish them the best of luck on their business venture.</blockquote>


just to be clear, I have zero issue with what they are doing, not that they need any of our approvals. (they don't owe us an approval, BTW). Me too wish them best of luck. Whoever IR chooses to team with is even more an irrelevance issue with us bloggers.



In case I didn't do a good job of explaining, my biggest concerns is that to do what he is doing, and be great at it requires him to change the way he approaches the market, and require him to change the tone he approaches things. It is very easy to be a hypocrite ( I am not accusing anyone of being one yet, but I hope you all get what I am trying to say). For example: calling out a MLS listing for their WTF price, while you have one listed under your own agency; calling a buyer knife catcher, while just completed a transaction with your own client at a similar price. Maybe I am not just smart enough, I don't know how one can reconcile this issue while still being a good agent while continue to provide unbiased analysis. This is the fourth time I try to ask this question, but no one seems to be willing to respond. why this is important? straight goes to ones credibility for what has said, and what about to be said. I will rest on this subject, as I think I am repeating myself.</blockquote>


A knife catcher is not defined by rental parity. A knife catcher is one who tries unsuccessfully to buy an asset at the bottom of that asset's high/low cycle. Specifically to the IHB, a knife catcher is someone who buys a home during the downtrending market and justifies their decision to themselves or others by saying that they know the market will not decrease by more than another 5% or 10% and they do not mind losing that much in equity. Mostly they have few or no fact based reasons why the market will not decrease by more than 5% or 10%.







Let us pretend I am a realtor. Prospective buyer tells me they want to buy and where they want to live, how much they have to spend and borrow, etc. They ask me a bunch of questions about homes and the area and then they ask if I think home prices in my area will continue to fall. If I am a salesman, I will say whatever it takes to make the sale and commission. If I am a professional I will tell the truth and give my opinion based on evidence and expertise and integrity.





If a prospective home buyer buys with the idea that they are buying at close to the bottom of the market, and they have scant evidence to back up that opinion, they are a knife catcher. If a prospective home buyer buys knowing full well that the evidence asserts that home prices will continue to decline precipitously and they want to buy anyways because it makes sense for them, they are not a knife catcher. They are a home buyer. Do you see the difference?





Why does anybody think that Larry will not give his true and full opinion on buying in this market? The last I checked, his opinion is public knowledge on this blog and in a book. IMO, the folks who are saying that Larry is selling out have not thought this through and are reacting to their personal experience with realtors instead of their experience with Larry and Zov.





I earn a chunk of my income representing taxpayers in audits, responding to IRS assessments, and preparing tax returns. If you asked me my opinion on income taxes and the IRS, I would say they both should be abolished immediately, (and I can tell you the reasons why), which would decrease my income. If I was a realtor, I would have no problem telling a client my opinion of the re market. And I would no problem telling a prospective buyer that they should not buy if they are counting on any appreciation within the next few years or are not considering the effect of a major decrease in equity. USCtroj, Deuce, and Larry do the same on this public blog. IMO, if you think that Larry is going to all of a sudden change his tune, I do not know what to tell you, other than to ask what you base that thought on. When I actually set the thought down and put it to words, I realize how preposterous it is.









And one more thing. The next time I start a business, I sure as heck ain't gonna care what bloggers think of my partner choices. (Boy, that oughta get someone pissed, eh?)</blockquote>
Great definition of knife catcher! In my eyes, a realtor should be more of a consultant for buyers and sellers than a salesperson. As you said, they should present the data to their respective parties in an unbiased manner because we all know that data can be manipulated to come to an biased conclusion. If any of my buyers ask me for my opinion, I will give it to them and usually tell them..."let the market/prices come to you" because the market isn't going to run away from anyone for a long time. I don't care if I work with someone for months or even years because they buy the right home because it's the biggest investment most people will ever make. If I can help people be more patient and save thousands of dollars that's more good karma points for me. Sure it's always nice to make money, but not at the price of pushing people into something that shouldn't be buying. I can not take all of the credit for realizing the extent of the market downside in real estate prices and thus telling people to be patient, it was this forum and its members (IR, graph, awgee, no_vas, etc) that really opened my eyes.
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1239004065]Check out this Shevy Special.

<a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/15112-Carnation-St-Fontana-CA-92336/17315634_zpid/ ">15112-Carnation-St-Fontana-CA-92336 </a>



Now is the time to move to Fontucky. Its lost 33% of its value this year.

NO Way it could go any lower.



New ceramic tile floors, new wood flooring, new carpet, custom paint, make this home turn key! A great back yard and a terrific floor plan make this a home that you do not want to miss.



You cant be serious.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.postlets.com/res/1787666">This Shevy one is nice too...</a> The street name is incorrect. It's Blanco Shevy, not Blacno.



Those pics are fabulous. All four of them and blurry/low-res to boot. Quality stuff.



I'm a little sad for you IR but do wish you the best of luck in your venture... May you become rich off all those equity-burning buyers! For all the time and energy you've put into this, you deserve to make some real bucks from the effort. It's a tough economy and a tough world. Better to do right for your family's future. The kudos, respect, and appreciation from all of us that you "saved" sure doesn't pay the mortgage.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1239025740][quote author="bltserv" date=1239004065]Check out this Shevy Special.

<a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/15112-Carnation-St-Fontana-CA-92336/17315634_zpid/ ">15112-Carnation-St-Fontana-CA-92336 </a>



Now is the time to move to Fontucky. Its lost 33% of its value this year.

NO Way it could go any lower.



New ceramic tile floors, new wood flooring, new carpet, custom paint, make this home turn key! A great back yard and a terrific floor plan make this a home that you do not want to miss.



You cant be serious.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.postlets.com/res/1787666">This Shevy one is nice too...</a> The street name is incorrect. It's Blanco Shevy, not Blacno.



Those pics are fabulous. All four of them and blurry/low-res to boot. Quality stuff.



I'm a little sad for you IR but do wish you the best of luck in your venture... May you become rich off all those equity-burning buyers! For all the time and energy you've put into this, you deserve to make some real bucks from the effort. It's a tough economy and a tough world. Better to do right for your family's future. The kudos, respect, and appreciation from all of us that you "saved" sure doesn't pay the mortgage.</blockquote>
Looks like the seller will be chasing the market down on that listing even if it has a 4-car garage. haha $300+/sf in Foothill Ranch??? I think not!
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1239026910]



Looks like the seller will be chasing the market down on that listing even if it has a 4-car garage. haha $300+/sf in Foothill Ranch??? I think not!</blockquote>


Uh SC, you might want to remove those bear blinders for a sec and <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Foothill-Ranch/22-Sierra-Blanco-92610/home/4798668">take a look at this</a>...
 
I want everyone to know that I wish IR the best of luck in his endeavor. People for years have received his info for free, and he has every right to capitalize on his his experience and knowledge. If you read what he is really trying to achieve, cash flow positive investing, then why not. He isn't encouraging anyone to buy a home on Grape Arbor for $900k when three of the properties are in foreclosure.



As for Shevy, I don't know him, in fact I have never met him. I wish that I had, but that is another topic in itself. What I do know of him is what he has posted on the blog, forums, a few emails, and what can be found on the internet. Some good, some not so good. Hey, if you could google me, you might find some not so great things too. But, around here you have to earn respect. I had to earn it, I mean... I have had several people pat me on the back with my call on jobs when a year ago they thought I was nuts and look at commercial RE now. IR, awgee, Ipo, Deuce and several others have had to endure the skepticism of IHB. Go look at some of the really old posts of Ipo, he and I butted heads like no tomorrow, and we still do till this day. When Deuce first joined IHB, I sent him a four letter tirade in a PM warning him if he began spewing Kool-Aid induced propaganda that he better be prepared to be skewered like every other Realturds around here. But at the end of the day, I respect them all, even if I don't always agree with them. Why? Because they all have the balls to stand behind their opinions, admit when they are wrong, and consistently contribute to IHB. Just because IR has chosen Shevy as his partner, does not exclude him from the same process we have all been through. He needs to earn it, and he has a lot of work to do to get it. Personally, I hope he does prove himself, because not only will he be a great addition to IHB, but he will also prove, that once again, IR is correct.



As for picking on his head shot... well... welcome to IHB. I make fun of people. No one is immune. If I don't pick on you, then that means I don't like you. Wait... there are a few exceptions, but Shevy is not one of them yet. You join the IHB family... then you need to be wearing your big boy pants. If he played college ball, then my trash talking is freshman high school level. He is a big boy, he can take it.



Cash flow investing is a different animal than buying a home because you fear that you will be priced out forever or that prices will not fall much further. Cash flow investing doesn't depend on appreciation, and could care less about depreciation. If done properly, you will be making money regardless. A knife catcher gets hurt, with what Larry will do is defend the person from that pain. If they chose to not take the advice and buy a property that would make them a knife catcher, then they are a knife catcher. Who cares who makes money off of it, at least Larry tried to do everything he possibly could to prevent it, if they won't listen, then why shouldn't Larry make money from it? He tried, and that is more than I can say for most Realturds out there. He should get paid for his efforts, not the one who is telling the buyer what they want to hear. BTW, I personally know of people buying properties in cash in the 909 that are cash flow positive and have 20% graphcakes cap rates. Gawd bless them.



I do offer one criticism of Shevy, from the <a href="http://findmylandmark.com/Irvine-market-analysis-2000-2800-square-feet-1990-or-newer-n26645.html">link of long time and well respected poster momo</a>... <em>Where are the screaming deals that should be out there in this housing meltdown? Of course, homes that back to major roads, need copious amounts of work, and have strange floor plans will sit on the market longer and sell for lower rices. If 2009 is anything like the end of 2008, if you are looking for a smoking deal in Irvine you need to consider the following options.

Cash on the court house steps, that is if Obama's housing plan is unable to prevent these foreclosures (<strong>Shevy Akason and Associates can assist you with this for a buyers premium</strong>)</em>



It should read: or you can PM graphrix at IHB, and he will show you how to do it for free. All he asks is that you read the forums and buy him lunch. Because you can do this on your own, and you shouldn't pay for it. Only ignorant people pay for this, especially since not all foreclosures happen on the "court house steps". Maybe I should charge Shevy for some of my knowledge? Anyone want to guess what I think is a fair rate? I can already tell, I could teach him a lot. [/ego]
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1239028014][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1239026910]



Looks like the seller will be chasing the market down on that listing even if it has a 4-car garage. haha $300+/sf in Foothill Ranch??? I think not!</blockquote>


Uh SC, you might want to remove those bear blinders for a sec and <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Foothill-Ranch/22-Sierra-Blanco-92610/home/4798668">take a look at this</a>...</blockquote>
Looks like the 92610 zip is averaging $250/sf to me from that pretty down sloping chart. If Irvine is gonna break $300/sf then Foothill Ranch will be below that due to its inferior location.
 
[quote author="irvine123" date=1238994352][quote author="awgee" date=1238972058]



I will disagree with you vehemently here. IHB was not started as a BEAR board, is not inhabited by real estate bears, and is willing to share all objective and subjective views. The majority of informed opinions are bearish because of the timing, but the folks expressing those bearish views are real estate fans for the most part. I am. If I was to sell RE, I would market on the most honest platform I could find, and the IHB fits that bill.



</blockquote>


In the most respective way, I would say it can't be any further from the truth that that IHB is not a bear dominated board. You might not have started the board with the intention to be dominated by the bears, it worked out to be that way regardless of your intention. I know most of your are "WILLING" to share views. However, non bearish views are met with strong and immediate reactions. There is no reason to argue about the exact words, but the dominating tone is bearish. The fact of the matter is, the bears are right on Prices. I don't understand why you want to dipute that now??



Unless IR, Graph, and etc, are ready to call the bottom or close to the bottom, most buyers IHB will represent are called KNIFE CATCHERs by IR, etc. I asked this questions before, and I would like to ask again, will IHB call or imply his buyers are knife catchers? If not, why are you using the term knife catchers for the past two years? What has changed?</blockquote>


Your right Awgee



Its not a Bear Board ? I cant stop laughing.



This little fellow we have been looking at for the last 2 years is a what again ?



<img src="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/irvine-renter.jpg" alt="" />
 
Wow, a lot of people look like they just discovered that there is no Santa Claus... If Shevy turned out to be the highest bidder for IR's popularity, good for IR! Experience of selling houses in the market that we've had until 2 years ago is of dubious value anyway.



I think IR could've captured more value by doing something more creative than that, eg selling value added analysis of properties on the market, or by creating "buyers' redfin" that lists buyers' criteria and the sellers can get into an "offering war" over a buyer, but heck, it's none of my business.



IR2 has a lot of own value to add to the process, so IR-IR2 partnership would've had too much overhead in terms of having 1 too many good (expensive) partners.



Let's see if Graph sells out next.
 
Well after a little research, I know this realtor will have to step up to the plate and work a little harder....



But i'm a forgiving person, I always hope for the best in people... but expect the normal.



Anyways good luck

-bix
 
[quote author="earthbm" date=1239059274]Wow, a lot of people look like they just discovered that there is no Santa Claus... If Shevy turned out to be the highest bidder for IR's popularity, good for IR! Experience of selling houses in the market that we've had until 2 years ago is of dubious value anyway.



I think IR could've captured more value by doing something more creative than that, eg selling value added analysis of properties on the market, or by creating "buyers' redfin" that lists buyers' criteria and the sellers can get into an "offering war" over a buyer, but heck, it's none of my business.



IR2 has a lot of own value to add to the process, so IR-IR2 partnership would've had too much overhead in terms of having 1 too many good (expensive) partners.



Let's see if Graph sells out next.</blockquote>
I just hope he doesn't go to work for a home builder like KB or worse yet the dark side...errrr, The Irvine Company. haha
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1239063002]

I just hope he doesn't go to work for a home builder like KB or worse yet the dark side...errrr, The Irvine Company. haha</blockquote>


When Crackercakes sells out, <a href="http://www.hearthside-homes.com/ourhomes/futurecommunities/brightwater/brightwater.aspx">he'll be working for these guys.</a>
 
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