Gold

[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1253056251][quote author="ukyo116" date=1253054514]Is that silver I see in backwardation?</blockquote>


I was going to make the same obervation.</blockquote>


Seems to have happened again? Sort of..



Oct 2009 17.255 n/a n/a 17.370 16.990 17.273s -0.018

Nov 2009 17.200 n/a 16.680 17.405 16.680 17.284s -0.084

Dec 2009 17.220 n/a 16.670 17.440 16.625 17.295s -0.075

Jan 2010 17.305 n/a 16.645 17.350 16.645 17.305s 0.000

Mar 2010 17.250 n/a 16.975 17.450 16.890 17.326s -0.076

May 2010 17.330 n/a 16.705 17.330 16.705 17.343s -0.013
 
More reason to be short. $1041.40



<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/06/pf/gold_investing_bubble.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009100612">Beware the gold bubble</a>
 
<a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/files/2009/10/einhorn-vic-2009-speech.pdf">Einhorn:</a>

<blockquote>However, the recent crisis has changed my view. The question can be flipped: how does one know what the dollar is worth given that dollars can be created out of thin air or dropped from helicopters? Just because something hasn?t happened, doesn?t mean it won?t. Yes, we should continue to buy stocks in great companies, but there is room for Grandpa Ben?s view as well.



I have seen many people debate whether gold is a bet on inflation or deflation. As I see it, it is neither. Gold does well when monetary and fiscal policies are poor and does poorly when they appear sensible. Gold did very well during the Great Depression when FDR debased the currency. It did well again in the money printing 1970s, but collapsed in response to Paul Volcker?s austerity. It ultimately made a bottom around 2001 when the excitement about our future budget surpluses peaked.



Prospectively, gold should do fine unless our leaders implement much greater fiscal and monetary restraint than appears likely. Of course, gold should do very well if there is a sovereign debt default or currency crisis.</blockquote>


I'm going to agree here. Gold as an investment only makes sense when the currency and markets are being manipulated by the government. I think it's been hovering in a range because no one really understands what the hell our government is up to.
 
Bubble bubble toil and trouble...it must be close to haloween.



<a href="http://www.moneynews.com/streettalk/gold_price_bubble/2009/10/20/274308.html?s=al&promo_code=8D6F-1">Some Begin to See a Gold Bubble</a>
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1252552790]Don't get too used to this guys. I am thinking very seriously of puttin on the shorts again.</blockquote>


morekaos - I went back and tried to find the most recent post where you said you were short gold, but I could not find it.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1256093241][quote author="morekaos" date=1252552790]Don't get too used to this guys. I am thinking very seriously of puttin on the shorts again.</blockquote>


morekaos - I went back and tried to find the most recent post where you said you were short gold, but I could not find it.</blockquote>


First posted on the "I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED" thread



Posted: 18 September 2009 08:12 AM [ # 365 ]



I will state it here. I am officailly long the dollar and shorting gold.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1256093551][quote author="awgee" date=1256093241][quote author="morekaos" date=1252552790]Don't get too used to this guys. I am thinking very seriously of puttin on the shorts again.</blockquote>


morekaos - I went back and tried to find the most recent post where you said you were short gold, but I could not find it.</blockquote>


First posted on the "I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED" thread



Posted: 18 September 2009 08:12 AM [ # 365 ]



I will state it here. I am officailly long the dollar and shorting gold.</blockquote>


I'll back up the dollar short too. And give me odds on all the hardways.



<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Should-You-Bet-against-the-ms-2599456250.html?x=0">Should You Bet against the Dollar?</a>
 
<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anNG9T__.c_M">Paul Tudor Jones Says Now Is Time, Place for Gold as an Asset</a>



<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/170167-paul-tudor-jones-gold-s-undervalued-and-bonds-are-a-curve-flattener-play">Seekingalpha article and Q3 letter to investors</a>
 
<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOfwpkHV2clM&pos=5">Roubini Says Rogers's Forecast for $2,000-an-Ounce Gold `Utter Nonsense' </a>
 
[quote author="ukyo116" date=1257379895]<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOfwpkHV2clM&pos=5">Roubini Says Rogers's Forecast for $2,000-an-Ounce Gold `Utter Nonsense' </a></blockquote>


Does roubini realize filling holes in bank balance sheets is nonsense and has consequences?
 
I'm certain he does. It's his contention the rise in gold is the carry trade on steroids and nothing more.



Anyone see the YOY chart for copper? Yowza. Enough to break a goldbugs heart.
 
[quote author="matt138" date=1257386077][quote author="ukyo116" date=1257379895]<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOfwpkHV2clM&pos=5">Roubini Says Rogers's Forecast for $2,000-an-Ounce Gold `Utter Nonsense' </a></blockquote>


Does roubini realize filling holes in bank balance sheets is nonsense and has consequences?</blockquote>


I think its an interesting debate from two people who come from very different backgrounds. One is in the private sector while the other is an academic.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1257387347]I'm certain he does. It's his contention the rise in gold is the carry trade on steroids and nothing more.



Anyone see the YOY chart for copper? Yowza. Enough to break a goldbugs heart.</blockquote>


Copper is an industrial commodity, not a store of value. Production of anything electrical or used in moving electricity is down, so copper is down to match the lowered demand. Gold, while it has some uses in production, is up because people expect inflation to spike in reaction to the dollar's ubiquitous disemination. It's not that gold bugs are wrong, they just aren't right... yet. If inflation (or the fear of inflation) gets high enough, anyone who buys it today will look brilliant, as long as they sell before everyone rushes for the door.
 
[quote author="MojoJD" date=1257408364]I'm just wondering when our proficiency with materials manipulations will reach a level where gold can be synthesized for less than market prices. There are already a few methods involving particle accelerators and nuclear reactors, which have been shown to work. Some clever and entrepreneurial physicist is going to get the jump on this one day and THEN we'll see about gold prices.



I would imagine that even news of such a venture would send prices tumbling.</blockquote>


When these hit the shelves, gold will be worthless... but our need to work will be removed so it balances out...



<img src="http://blog.lib.umn.edu/ande8399/architecture/replicator.jpg" alt="" />
 
There are billions of tons of gold in sea water. I don't know how much it cost to get it out, but it certainly is a limiting parameter to the price of gold. It is cheaper than the particle accelerator method for sure. We just need some bright chemists to work on this, but I am sure it is a Top Secret project, and on the day the research is done, all of them will accidentally poisoned by some chemical they used in their lab.
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1257397071][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1257387347]I'm certain he does. It's his contention the rise in gold is the carry trade on steroids and nothing more.



Anyone see the YOY chart for copper? Yowza. Enough to break a goldbugs heart.</blockquote>


Copper is an industrial commodity, not a store of value.</blockquote>


You can't store copper? Does it not have value? After all, gold is <em>just a metal.</em> If you're going to speculate in a metal, why be predjuiced?



<blockquote>Production of anything electrical or used in moving electricity is down, so copper is down to match the lowered demand.</blockquote>


You obv. didn't look at the chart.



<img src="http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-copper-1y-Large.gif" alt="" />



<blockquote>Gold, while it has some uses in production, is up because people expect inflation to spike in reaction to the dollar's ubiquitous disemination. It's not that gold bugs are wrong, they just aren't right... yet. If inflation (or the fear of inflation) gets high enough, anyone who buys it today will look brilliant, as long as they sell before everyone rushes for the door.</blockquote>


Gold bugs should be kicking themselves for getting into the wrong "store of value".
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1257409549][quote author="MojoJD" date=1257408364]I'm just wondering when our proficiency with materials manipulations will reach a level where gold can be synthesized for less than market prices. There are already a few methods involving particle accelerators and nuclear reactors, which have been shown to work. Some clever and entrepreneurial physicist is going to get the jump on this one day and THEN we'll see about gold prices.



I would imagine that even news of such a venture would send prices tumbling.</blockquote>


When these hit the shelves, gold will be worthless... but our need to work will be removed so it balances out...



<img src="http://blog.lib.umn.edu/ande8399/architecture/replicator.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>


Artificial Diamonds Trigger a Furious Counter-Offensive

<A href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2008/11/artificial-di-1.html">http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2008/11/artificial-di-1.html</A>
 
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