Gold

[quote author="PANDA" date=1258770755][quote author="BondTrader" date=1258606278][quote author="graphrix" date=1258605331]I just placed a big bet in the Panda challenge that GLD will be down before Dec. 19th. We will see how that pays off.</blockquote>


Count me in, Dec GLD 105 put and UUP for a TRADE.



Oil took about 8 yrs to finally reach a peak. It's roughly the same for Gold ($255 around beginning of 2001). We remember all too well how oil had its runup before it crushes, not to mention the angle of ascent for oil is a lot steeper. With that said, I don't expect a 20-30% correction on Gold in the near term, a pull back of 5-10% is very likely, then it certainly can edge higher. The inverse head and shoulder pattern formed since the beginning of 08 (broken out to the upside recently) suggested a potential top arond $1250.

</blockquote>




Awgee, you are talking about very near term for minor support and floor right? because i see a 20% correction happening on gold prices.</blockquote>






Seriously? You honestly think the dollar is never going to recover?
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1258780561][quote author="PANDA" date=1258770755][quote author="BondTrader" date=1258606278][quote author="graphrix" date=1258605331]I just placed a big bet in the Panda challenge that GLD will be down before Dec. 19th. We will see how that pays off.</blockquote>


Count me in, Dec GLD 105 put and UUP for a TRADE.



Oil took about 8 yrs to finally reach a peak. It's roughly the same for Gold ($255 around beginning of 2001). We remember all too well how oil had its runup before it crushes, not to mention the angle of ascent for oil is a lot steeper. With that said, I don't expect a 20-30% correction on Gold in the near term, a pull back of 5-10% is very likely, then it certainly can edge higher. The inverse head and shoulder pattern formed since the beginning of 08 (broken out to the upside recently) suggested a potential top arond $1250.

</blockquote>




Awgee, you are talking about very near term for minor support and floor right? because i see a 20% correction happening on gold prices.</blockquote>




Seriously? You honestly think the dollar is never going to recover?</blockquote>


Awgee, what happens when the dollar does a full reversal up to 85 from 75? I agree with you on the floor of $1000, but it go can lower, but not much lower. Marc Faber is in agreement with you that Gold will never breach under $1000 again, but I've also seen him wrong on some of his calls. Personally, I see a major correction coming (somewhere between 19 - 25%.) When there is too much publicity on Gold (when you start seeing GLD guys on CNBC) and when everyone starts hating the dollar is when i get cautious. Both Marc Faber and Peter Schiff are tainted in my eyes. The Gold trade is too crowded right now.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258780921]

Awgee, what happens when the dollar does a full reversal up to 85 from 75? I agree with you on the floor of $1000, but it go can lower, but not much lower. Marc Faber is in agreement with you that Gold will never breach under $1000 again, but I've also seen him wrong on some of his calls. Personally, I see a major correction coming (somewhere between 19 - 25%.) When there is too much publicity on Gold (when you start seeing GLD guys on CNBC) and when everyone starts hating the dollar is when i get cautious. Both Marc Faber and Peter Schiff are tainted in my eyes. The Gold trade is too crowded right now.</blockquote>


Panda, I PM'ed this to you back in August





[quote author="Panda" date=]

Ukyo,



It appears that inflation is starting to kick in this year. The dollar has weakened and foreign currencies have strengthen. Do you think the Gold will test $880 - $900 again before hitting $1000 and above?

</blockquote>


[quote author="ukyo116" date=]

It could, and if it does, I think you have only a few hours to catch that bottom because I know a lot of people will be buying if it ever touches that point.



I do think the chances are very low however. All these comments from PIMCO and buffett are probably shifting perceptions on the dollar and gold. I also know the russians have been buying, and now the chinese are starting public campaigns to purchase silver.



...



If it hits $900, I will buy more because the price should already be past $1000 given all these bank failures, budget shortfalls, China, calls for end to the dollar, etc, etc etc. I watch the $GOLD chart almost everyday and it is absolutely unreliable. I think ebay presents a better picture of the price of gold. So, I am trying to find a better gauge of the real gold price, because its obviously not the comex price.

</blockquote>


I would have to respectfully disagree about the gold trade being crowded. I think the overall community was more bullish at $700-$800 than at present levels. It's still relatively pessimistic for Gold.
 
Crowded for the traders. Interestingly, I watched a documentary that did a short segment on the gold pit. And one of the traders was saying "Gold is the canary in the coal mine on the mismangement of the US dollar". And this was 2007,2008? I will have to check.



Not crowded at all in terms of general public. I should have been more specific. Apologies.



I wonder if that whole Swiss stair thing is true. I guess we will find out.
 
Months from now, when the price is $150-$200 higher, these comments will seem just as silly as the "OMG what do you think will happen if the price goes from $800 to $850? The gold bubble will surely burst at 900." The back and forth is futile. In 2004, cries of real estate fundamentals fell on deaf ears. the fundamentals don't mean shit when anybody can get a loan. Understand it and profit from it. The gold situation is somewhat similar. cry about the fundamentals all you want, but gold is going up because money is being debased like loans were being handed out in '04. It will leave the numbers guys walking in circles sputtering to themselves in disbelief.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258802950]Awgee and Ukyo116,



Both of you guys don't see any chance of a very near term dollar rally?</blockquote>


If the Fed decides to be cute and try another Lehmann, yes we could see a massive rally in the US dollar. And then confidence will be decimated.
 
[quote author="ukyo116" date=1258804405][quote author="PANDA" date=1258802950]Awgee and Ukyo116,



Both of you guys don't see any chance of a very near term dollar rally?</blockquote>


If the Fed decides to be cute and try another Lehmann, yes we could see a massive rally in the US dollar. And then confidence will be decimated.</blockquote>


Suppose another Lehmann occurs in Jan 2010 which crushes the DOW to 6000 and we have a massive rally in the US Dollar. What will happen to Gold prices then? Will it go fall or rally even higher than the dollar?

What do you think ukyo116?
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258805320][quote author="ukyo116" date=1258804405][quote author="PANDA" date=1258802950]Awgee and Ukyo116,



Both of you guys don't see any chance of a very near term dollar rally?</blockquote>


If the Fed decides to be cute and try another Lehmann, yes we could see a massive rally in the US dollar. And then confidence will be decimated.</blockquote>


Suppose another Lehmann occurs in Jan 2010 which crushes the DOW to 6000 and we have a massive rally in the US Dollar. What will happen to Gold prices then? Will it go fall or rally even higher than the dollar?

What do you think ukyo116?</blockquote>


I wish I knew the answer to this, but I do not know the chain of derivatives that would fail in such an event.



Sorry.







I just came back from the SF Hard Assets show, and the crowd there were mainly retirees and a handful of investment professionals. The only time the conference room was crowded was to hear James Dines speak. The rest of the time, when the companys were giving presentations there weren't more than 50 ppl in the room.
 
Man. Someone needs to go out there and cut the FED's nuts out. These clowns are artificially inflating the stock market and destroying our currency. The dollar has been slapped around enough and we need to see the market fall and see a rebound in the dollar. Near-term, I think Gold is over bought. MoreKaos, I hope you are still hanging in there with your Gold shorts. Stay strong!
 
I swear, it's as if awgee is writing for Marketwatch...



<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-gold-bugs-taking-gold-mainstream-2009-11-23">New gold bugs making gold investments mainstream</a>



<em>Tudor, Paulson, Greenlight, Hayman bring precious metal in from the fringe



SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold has long been favored by a fringe of the investment world, but this year some of the world's leading hedge-fund managers have loaded up on the precious metal amid concern government efforts to avoid another Great Depression that could undermine major currencies and fuel rampant inflation.



"I have never been a gold bug," Paul Tudor Jones, chairman of hedge-fund giant Tudor Investment Corp., wrote in an Oct. 15 letter to investors. "It is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place. And now is that time."



Tudor has been building positions in gold and other precious metals in recent months and they now represent the firm's largest commodities exposure, he noted.



John Paulson's Paulson & Co., one of the world's largest hedge fund firms that made billions betting against subprime mortgages, is launching a new gold fund Jan. 1 and became the largest holder of the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund this year.



Greenlight Capital, run by David Einhorn, reversed a long-time aversion to gold, while Kyle Bass's Hayman Advisors LP held more than 15% of its portfolio in gold and other precious metals earlier this year. Eton Park Capital, headed by former Goldman Sachs trader Eric Mindich, has also got in on the act. </em>
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1259033030]Man. Someone needs to go out there and cut the FED's nuts out. These clowns are artificially inflating the stock market and destroying our currency. The dollar has been slapped around enough and we need to see the market fall and see a rebound in the dollar. Near-term, I think Gold is over bought. MoreKaos, I hope you are still hanging in there with your Gold shorts. Stay strong!</blockquote>


Speak for yourself. Not everybody is pissed they are destroying the currency.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1259033030]Man. Someone needs to go out there and cut the FED's nuts out. These clowns are artificially inflating the stock market and destroying our currency. The dollar has been slapped around enough and we need to see the market fall and see a rebound in the dollar. Near-term, I think Gold is over bought. MoreKaos, I hope you are still hanging in there with your Gold shorts. Stay strong!</blockquote>




Panda, a couple quick thoughts on your recent behavior



1. You really need to calm down and stop paying attention to daily volatility of gold future prices. Turn your screen off for 6months and come back to see where gold is at by then. You are a long term INVESTOR, so behave like one and stick with what you believe in the long run that Gold will outperform any other asset class in the next 2-3yrs or longer.



2. I know it hurts you seeing gold go up everyday because you feel you left some money on the table, again, you did the right thing of getting out of some of your gold holdings a while back which is the most prudent thing to do when you are not certain which way the market will go. Assuming gold is at $600 today, would you be upset for not selling everything? It's not about timing, it's about sound risk control and discipline.



3. And as a gold bug like yourself, you'd hope nobody will stop the Fed from printing so Gold will hit $5000 sooner or later, so come on, don't talk like your really care about dollar falling. I don't, :)
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1259038055][quote author="PANDA" date=1259033030]Man. Someone needs to go out there and cut the FED's nuts out. These clowns are artificially inflating the stock market and destroying our currency. The dollar has been slapped around enough and we need to see the market fall and see a rebound in the dollar. Near-term, I think Gold is over bought. MoreKaos, I hope you are still hanging in there with your Gold shorts. Stay strong!</blockquote>


Speak for yourself. Not everybody is pissed they are destroying the currency.</blockquote>
Exactly....lower dollar = greater US exports
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1259033030]Man. Someone needs to go out there and cut the FED's nuts out. These clowns are artificially inflating the stock market and destroying our currency. The dollar has been slapped around enough and we need to see the market fall and see a rebound in the dollar. Near-term, I think Gold is over bought. MoreKaos, I hope you are still hanging in there with your Gold shorts. Stay strong!</blockquote>


I'm cool
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1259077868][quote author="PANDA" date=1259033030]Man. Someone needs to go out there and cut the FED's nuts out. These clowns are artificially inflating the stock market and destroying our currency. The dollar has been slapped around enough and we need to see the market fall and see a rebound in the dollar. Near-term, I think Gold is over bought. MoreKaos, I hope you are still hanging in there with your Gold shorts. Stay strong!</blockquote>




Panda, a couple quick thoughts on your recent behavior



1. You really need to calm down and stop paying attention to daily volatility of gold future prices. Turn your screen off for 6months and come back to see where gold is at by then. You are a long term INVESTOR, so behave like one and stick with what you believe in the long run that Gold will outperform any other asset class in the next 2-3yrs or longer.



2. I know it hurts you seeing gold go up everyday because you feel you left some money on the table, again, you did the right thing of getting out of some of your gold holdings a while back which is the most prudent thing to do when you are not certain which way the market will go. Assuming gold is at $600 today, would you be upset for not selling everything? It's not about timing, it's about sound risk control and discipline.



3. And as a gold bug like yourself, you'd hope nobody will stop the Fed from printing so Gold will hit $5000 sooner or later, so come on, don't talk like your really care about dollar falling. I don't, :)</blockquote>


LOL. Bondtrader, what are you my dad? haha. Yeah, I recently took some profits at $1150 and bought back the dollar at 75. I could be totally wrong with my decision, but at this point this market makes no sense to me. The bear market rally of the great depression lasted 6 months and we can currently 9 months into this rally. This market is rallying on thin air with low volume. This is unprecedented and not one economist i respect and follow predicted this bear market rally would last this long. To be real honest, I just don't have the skin and balls that Awgee has.



You are right though... i am totally NOT a trader and i need shut the screen off and focus on my work which provides me the best ROI.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1259146191][quote author="BondTrader" date=1259077868][quote author="PANDA" date=1259033030]Man. Someone needs to go out there and cut the FED's nuts out. These clowns are artificially inflating the stock market and destroying our currency. The dollar has been slapped around enough and we need to see the market fall and see a rebound in the dollar. Near-term, I think Gold is over bought. MoreKaos, I hope you are still hanging in there with your Gold shorts. Stay strong!</blockquote>




Panda, a couple quick thoughts on your recent behavior



1. You really need to calm down and stop paying attention to daily volatility of gold future prices. Turn your screen off for 6months and come back to see where gold is at by then. You are a long term INVESTOR, so behave like one and stick with what you believe in the long run that Gold will outperform any other asset class in the next 2-3yrs or longer.



2. I know it hurts you seeing gold go up everyday because you feel you left some money on the table, again, you did the right thing of getting out of some of your gold holdings a while back which is the most prudent thing to do when you are not certain which way the market will go. Assuming gold is at $600 today, would you be upset for not selling everything? It's not about timing, it's about sound risk control and discipline.



3. And as a gold bug like yourself, you'd hope nobody will stop the Fed from printing so Gold will hit $5000 sooner or later, so come on, don't talk like your really care about dollar falling. I don't, :)</blockquote>


LOL. Bondtrader, what are you my dad? haha. Yeah, I recently took some profits at $1150 and bought back the dollar at 75. I could be totally wrong with my decision, but at this point this market makes no sense to me. The bear market rally of the great depression lasted 6 months and we can currently 9 months into this rally. This market is rallying on thin air with low volume. This is unprecedented and not one economist i respect and follow predicted this bear market rally would last this long. To be real honest, I just don't have the skin and balls that Awgee has.



You are right though... i am totally NOT a trader and i need shut the screen off and focus on my work which provides me the best ROI.</blockquote>
Although there was some quantitative easing by Hoover during the Great Depression, the present amount of money printing by the Fed and the world's central banks is, well I don't know what it is, but that money has to go some place. And usually the first place that an increase in money supply shows is the equities markets.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1259146191][quote author="BondTrader" date=1259077868][quote author="PANDA" date=1259033030]Man. Someone needs to go out there and cut the FED's nuts out. These clowns are artificially inflating the stock market and destroying our currency. The dollar has been slapped around enough and we need to see the market fall and see a rebound in the dollar. Near-term, I think Gold is over bought. MoreKaos, I hope you are still hanging in there with your Gold shorts. Stay strong!</blockquote>




Panda, a couple quick thoughts on your recent behavior



1. You really need to calm down and stop paying attention to daily volatility of gold future prices. Turn your screen off for 6months and come back to see where gold is at by then. You are a long term INVESTOR, so behave like one and stick with what you believe in the long run that Gold will outperform any other asset class in the next 2-3yrs or longer.



2. I know it hurts you seeing gold go up everyday because you feel you left some money on the table, again, you did the right thing of getting out of some of your gold holdings a while back which is the most prudent thing to do when you are not certain which way the market will go. Assuming gold is at $600 today, would you be upset for not selling everything? It's not about timing, it's about sound risk control and discipline.



3. And as a gold bug like yourself, you'd hope nobody will stop the Fed from printing so Gold will hit $5000 sooner or later, so come on, don't talk like your really care about dollar falling. I don't, :)</blockquote>


LOL. Bondtrader, what are you my dad? haha. Yeah, I recently took some profits at $1150 and bought back the dollar at 75. I could be totally wrong with my decision, but at this point this market makes no sense to me. The bear market rally of the great depression lasted 6 months and we can currently 9 months into this rally. This market is rallying on thin air with low volume. This is unprecedented and not one economist i respect and follow predicted this bear market rally would last this long. To be real honest, I just don't have the skin and balls that Awgee has.



You are right though... i am totally NOT a trader and i need shut the screen off and focus on my work which provides me the best ROI.</blockquote>


LOL, I totally agree that this market doesn't make a lot sense fundamentally and I try not to use historical references to evaluate today's market. We are in a new world anyways, it's all about momentum and dollar.
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1259215843][quote author="PANDA" date=1259146191][quote author="BondTrader" date=1259077868][quote author="PANDA" date=1259033030]Man. Someone needs to go out there and cut the FED's nuts out. These clowns are artificially inflating the stock market and destroying our currency. The dollar has been slapped around enough and we need to see the market fall and see a rebound in the dollar. Near-term, I think Gold is over bought. MoreKaos, I hope you are still hanging in there with your Gold shorts. Stay strong!</blockquote>




Panda, a couple quick thoughts on your recent behavior



1. You really need to calm down and stop paying attention to daily volatility of gold future prices. Turn your screen off for 6months and come back to see where gold is at by then. You are a long term INVESTOR, so behave like one and stick with what you believe in the long run that Gold will outperform any other asset class in the next 2-3yrs or longer.



2. I know it hurts you seeing gold go up everyday because you feel you left some money on the table, again, you did the right thing of getting out of some of your gold holdings a while back which is the most prudent thing to do when you are not certain which way the market will go. Assuming gold is at $600 today, would you be upset for not selling everything? It's not about timing, it's about sound risk control and discipline.



3. And as a gold bug like yourself, you'd hope nobody will stop the Fed from printing so Gold will hit $5000 sooner or later, so come on, don't talk like your really care about dollar falling. I don't, :)</blockquote>


LOL. Bondtrader, what are you my dad? haha. Yeah, I recently took some profits at $1150 and bought back the dollar at 75. I could be totally wrong with my decision, but at this point this market makes no sense to me. The bear market rally of the great depression lasted 6 months and we can currently 9 months into this rally. This market is rallying on thin air with low volume. This is unprecedented and not one economist i respect and follow predicted this bear market rally would last this long. To be real honest, I just don't have the skin and balls that Awgee has.



You are right though... i am totally NOT a trader and i need shut the screen off and focus on my work which provides me the best ROI.</blockquote>


LOL, I totally agree that this market doesn't make a lot sense fundamentally and I try not to use historical references to evaluate today's market. We are in a new world anyways, it's all about momentum and dollar.</blockquote>


LOL, When Panda does not understand, Panda does not play! Enjoy your Thanksgiving Bondstrader.
 
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