Future of real estate in irvine

paperboyNC said:
i1 said:
as others said, this is an asset oriented market (i.e., peeps buying with assets vs. income), so i wonder what will happen in 1-2 yrs after this period of supply/price digestion if the economy gets better.  and in ~10 yrs, when there won't be much new supply at all
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The economy is the key. If the unemployment rate in Orange County continues to go down more and more:

- White collar workers will be able to move jobs for big pay increases (Low unemployment creates bidding wars for top talent)
- You'll also have more people moving here to Orange County to take advantage of the great economy (relative to the rest of California and the Southwest US).
- Kids fresh out of college will be getting more signing bonuses and six figure jobs and be buying starter homes rather than pay the high apartment rents

Housing demand will increase housing rental demand which will keep investors from selling and convince more investors to buy.

One of my friends that lives in Aliso Viejo and just bought last year told me last week "We want to move to Irvine. Particularly Woodbury. We heard Woodbury has the best elementary school. The school where we live in Aliso is rated poorly."

I have a lot of neighbors in Portola Springs that have long commutes (Carlsbad, Long Beach, Fountain Valley, etc.) and live in Irvine for the schools.
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I hope you updated them on the news.  Stonegate is #1.  Would hate for their kids to end up going to UCI instead of.. UCI. 
 
jmoney74 said:
I hope you updated them on the news.  Stonegate is #1.  Would hate for their kids to end up going to UCI instead of.. UCI.
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I actually asked if she knew that Woodbury was going to be rezoned to the toxic land / across the street from jail HS. (Of course I'm going to be rezoned there too).
 
jmoney74 said:
Woodbury and Stonegate rezoned to HS5?
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Yes.  It's actually "good" for Woodbury as it was zoned into Irvine High.  Stonegate was zoned into Northwood.

Of course, it's likely that the assignment is temporary as Irvine is looking to build a sixth HS.
 
jmoney74 said:
Woodbury and Stonegate rezoned to HS5? 
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Latest HS boundary proposal:

Revised-high-school-boundary-proposal-from-May-27.png
 
thatOSguy said:
Then, this happened:
http://www.trulia.com/trends/2014/06/bubble-watch-q2-2014/

Top 10 Metros Where Home Prices Are Most Overvalued
# U.S. Metro Home prices relative to fundamentals, 2014 Q2 Home prices relative to fundamentals, 2006 Q1 Year-over-year change in asking prices, May 2014
1 Orange County, CA +17% +71% 9.6%
2 Honolulu, HI +15% +41% 5.3%
3 Los Angeles, CA +15% +79% 12.7%
4 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA +13% +92% 18.8%
5 Austin, TX +13% +8% 9.7%
6 San Jose, CA +11% +58% 10.4%
7 Oakland, CA +10% +72% 14.8%
8 Ventura County, CA +9% +73% 12.6%
9 San Diego, CA +7% +69% 11.2%
10 San Francisco, CA +6% +51% 11.6%
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That said...

These California markets are much less overvalued than they were at the height of the bubble. Orange County, today?s frothiest market, is just 17% overvalued now versus being 71% overvalued in 2006 Q1.
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So according to the number crunchers, we're 17% overvalued in OC. A $1M stucco box should be $830k. Sounds about right.
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I trust those kind of articles as far as I can throw the authors.  Yeah, let's dump a general 17% overvaluation for all of OC even though each city is very different.  Take Irvine and Newport Beach out and I bet we aren't as overvalued.  Conclusion.....FAIL!
 
If it's always overvalued.....then is it ever really overvalued?

I just consider it the price of weather/Disneyland/beach access. I mean, is the author suggesting we move to the most undervalued area, Detroit???

USCTrojanCPA said:
thatOSguy said:
Then, this happened:
http://www.trulia.com/trends/2014/06/bubble-watch-q2-2014/

Top 10 Metros Where Home Prices Are Most Overvalued
# U.S. Metro Home prices relative to fundamentals, 2014 Q2 Home prices relative to fundamentals, 2006 Q1 Year-over-year change in asking prices, May 2014
1 Orange County, CA +17% +71% 9.6%
2 Honolulu, HI +15% +41% 5.3%
3 Los Angeles, CA +15% +79% 12.7%
4 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA +13% +92% 18.8%
5 Austin, TX +13% +8% 9.7%
6 San Jose, CA +11% +58% 10.4%
7 Oakland, CA +10% +72% 14.8%
8 Ventura County, CA +9% +73% 12.6%
9 San Diego, CA +7% +69% 11.2%
10 San Francisco, CA +6% +51% 11.6%
Click to expand...

That said...

These California markets are much less overvalued than they were at the height of the bubble. Orange County, today?s frothiest market, is just 17% overvalued now versus being 71% overvalued in 2006 Q1.
Click to expand...

So according to the number crunchers, we're 17% overvalued in OC. A $1M stucco box should be $830k. Sounds about right.
Click to expand...
I trust those kind of articles as far as I can throw the authors.  Yeah, let's dump a general 17% overvaluation for all of OC even though each city is very different.  Take Irvine and Newport Beach out and I bet we aren't as overvalued.  Conclusion.....FAIL!
Click to expand...
 
ukuoy said:
Talking about HOA and MR, does anybody know the monthly HOA and MR of Cypress Village?
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These vary depending on the homes in cypress village, especially the HOA (can range from 150 to 300+ per month)
 
MsHouseHunter said:
ukuoy said:
Talking about HOA and MR, does anybody know the monthly HOA and MR of Cypress Village?
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These vary depending on the homes in cypress village, especially the HOA (can range from 150 to 300+ per month)
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Just $150 for the community if the home is detached SFR.  If the home is attached, than $150 for the community plus around $150 for the condominium.

The total MR is around $3750.
 
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