Future of real estate in irvine

Homer_Simpson said:
Just go into westminster,garden grove, anaheim.  There will be like 5 families living under one roof with high end cars parked outside.  Can't imagine 12 people and a 3bd/2.5 bath home lol...
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One of the downsides of having a really nice home is that you never want to leave. The upsides of having that situation is that you want to spend all of your time out of the house.
 
thatOSguy said:
paperboyNC said:
Homer_Simpson said:
Just go into westminster,garden grove, anaheim.  There will be like 5 families living under one roof with high end cars parked outside.  Can't imagine 12 people and a 3bd/2.5 bath home lol...
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One of the downsides of having a really nice home is that you never want to leave. The upsides of having that situation is that you want to spend all of your time out of the house.
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This. Happiness for us is not directly proportional to the size/scale of our home. Tried that and eventually pined for being outside experiencing the world around me.
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Agreed...but there is something to be said about having stability.  If I was single or without a child, I probably would not buy a house.  But everything changes when you have children.
 
Did I hear gaming the system or enjoying Irvine at others expense?

irvinehomeowner said:
thatOSguy said:
irvinehomeowner said:
I guess we are over ratio'd.

But that's okay, we can always HARP/TARP/SQUAT (not the IHS squat) if we can't make payments down the road.
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Damn 99%er getting all the breaks!
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Had we known how easy it would be to game the system, we wouldn't have sold our previous 3CWG.

We could have cashed out on 2 homes during this latest run up of Irvine prices.
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jbot747 said:
People need to wake up, this is the height of the second bubble. It really has nowhere to go but down again. The median incomes in Irvine while high, are nowhere near inline with real estate prices. Why do you think they are building so many apartment complexes. You have so many houses being listed with pricing history like this-

Date          Event                  Price$/sqft
06/05/14  Price change      $535,000-1.8%$509
05/02/14  Listed for sale    $545,000$519
06/02/12  Listing removed  $2,150/mo
05/17/12  Listed for rent    $2,150/mo
08/06/04  Sold                  $530,000$504
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/66-Alevera-St-Irvine-CA-92618/59730824_zpid/

So this person bought a decade ago, far from the exact height, and still can't sell it for a profit. Keep in mind that a best case scenario 30yr mortgage with the way interest is front loaded, and they probably only paid off about $100k on their mortgage. Renting something for $2K, and putting $1K month away in something that could earn 5% a year would have probably made them more money, and been a lot less stressful.
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I have access to Foreclosure Radar and I've been seeing the number of NODs and Trustee sales dry up due to the increase in prices.  The foreclosure wave is not coming and never did.  Irvine is the gold standard in OC and will always trade at a premium to most all other cities in Orange County.  It declined less in the downturn and increased in prices more than other surrounding cities.  Think of Irvine as the downtown of Orange County.
 
thatOSguy said:
The California Court Company said:
With a house paid off you can work a $15 per hour job ... and still live comfortably in Irvine.
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Not if you're paying $650 a month in MR and HOAs plus regular property tax. That's your whole check.

But assuming you bought low, have no MR, no HOAs, no kids, no spouse, paid off car and no student debt, maybe.

Alas, there are only few USCTrojanCPA's in Irvine, who incidentally (but not coincidentally), enjoys low Mello roos and no HOAs in West Irvine.
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Yes, I do enjoy paying no HOA and Mello Roos of about $1,000/yr.  On an after-tax basis, my cost to own is equal to what I'd have to pay for a 1-bedroom IAC apartment. 
 
You guys can run all the analysis that you want and use all the fundamental arguments out there, but Irvine is a very unique city.  About 40% of all home sales are all cash and then I'd guestimate that another 40% of sales are done with high downpayments (40-80% down) from my personal observation.  Most people on here fall into the remaining 20% pool and think that Irvine prices are out of wack when it comes to  fundamentals.  Irvine is the job hub for Orange County, has one of the best schools in CA, very safe, has a recognizable brand name, and is very appealing for a lot of buyers.  It is the gold standard, like it or not.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
You guys can run all the analysis that you want and use all the fundamental arguments out there, but Irvine is a very unique city.  About 40% of all home sales are all cash and then I'd guestimate that another 40% of sales are done with high downpayments (40-80% down) from my personal observation.  Most people on here fall into the remaining 20% pool and think that Irvine prices are out of wack when it comes to  fundamentals.  Irvine is the job hub for Orange County, has one of the best schools in CA, very safe, has a recognizable brand name, and is very appealing for a lot of buyers.  It is the gold standard, like it or not.
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well put.
every major high-cost metro has a couple hoods/cities that are even pricier and seem to defy logic. don't go down much and go up a lot in good mkts. but imo it's because those hoods have a slightly better overall package of amenities/features that the nearby substitutes can't match. And then there are always peeps who are willing to pay a large premium to have the gold standard even if logic would say nearby alternatives are better values.

as others said, this is an asset oriented market (i.e., peeps buying with assets vs. income), so i wonder what will happen in 1-2 yrs after this period of supply/price digestion if the economy gets better.  and in ~10 yrs, when there won't be much new supply at all
 
Y, i would agree not to expect a lot of appreciation with all the new building. But I still feel impact of the new supply is a little overstated.

All the stuff coming is only a concern if it all comes online too fast simultaneously. Too early to tell if that will happen. Peeps 1 yr ago were already very worried about supply and right now, there are multiple new choices for most buyers, but not a ton. You can always find a couple tracts doing poorly and a couple doing very well with the rest muddling along decently.

PP is pretty much done right now and looks like the next GP won't start selling for at least a year. So 5P seems rational. IP's history has been rational and seems they're staying that way with not much movement in 5b or the rest of PS. What matters isn't that there are XXXX more homes coming. That's always been true in irvine. It's how many years developers decide they want to take to build those XXXX new homes.

 
i1 said:
Y, i would agree not to expect a lot of appreciation with all the new building. But I still feel impact of the new supply is a little overstated.

All the stuff coming is only a concern if it all comes online too fast simultaneously. Too early to tell if that will happen. Peeps 1 yr ago were already very worried about supply and right now, there are multiple new choices for most buyers, but not a ton. You can always find a couple tracts doing poorly and a couple doing very well with the rest muddling along decently.

PP is pretty much done right now and looks like the next GP won't start selling for at least a year. So 5P seems rational. IP's history has been rational and seems they're staying that way with not much movement in 5b or the rest of PS. What matters isn't that there are XXXX more homes coming. That's always been true in irvine. It's how many years developers decide they want to take to build those XXXX new homes.
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Seems like TIC is really rushing to get things out.. they now have multiple neighborhoods building out at once.  I think buyers have more choices today.. with new home builds.  Heck, drove by Woodbury today and I don't know how many signs were up.  CHING CHONG CHANG.. THEY ALL WANNA SELL HOMES!
 
i1 said:
as others said, this is an asset oriented market (i.e., peeps buying with assets vs. income), so i wonder what will happen in 1-2 yrs after this period of supply/price digestion if the economy gets better.  and in ~10 yrs, when there won't be much new supply at all
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The economy is the key. If the unemployment rate in Orange County continues to go down more and more:

- White collar workers will be able to move jobs for big pay increases (Low unemployment creates bidding wars for top talent)
- You'll also have more people moving here to Orange County to take advantage of the great economy (relative to the rest of California and the Southwest US).
- Kids fresh out of college will be getting more signing bonuses and six figure jobs and be buying starter homes rather than pay the high apartment rents

Housing demand will increase housing rental demand which will keep investors from selling and convince more investors to buy.

One of my friends that lives in Aliso Viejo and just bought last year told me last week "We want to move to Irvine. Particularly Woodbury. We heard Woodbury has the best elementary school. The school where we live in Aliso is rated poorly."

I have a lot of neighbors in Portola Springs that have long commutes (Carlsbad, Long Beach, Fountain Valley, etc.) and live in Irvine for the schools.

 
jmoney74 said:
i1 said:
Y, i would agree not to expect a lot of appreciation with all the new building. But I still feel impact of the new supply is a little overstated.

All the stuff coming is only a concern if it all comes online too fast simultaneously. Too early to tell if that will happen. Peeps 1 yr ago were already very worried about supply and right now, there are multiple new choices for most buyers, but not a ton. You can always find a couple tracts doing poorly and a couple doing very well with the rest muddling along decently.

PP is pretty much done right now and looks like the next GP won't start selling for at least a year. So 5P seems rational. IP's history has been rational and seems they're staying that way with not much movement in 5b or the rest of PS. What matters isn't that there are XXXX more homes coming. That's always been true in irvine. It's how many years developers decide they want to take to build those XXXX new homes.
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Seems like TIC is really rushing to get things out.. they now have multiple neighborhoods building out at once.  I think buyers have more choices today.. with new home builds.  Heck, drove by Woodbury today and I don't know how many signs were up.  CHING CHONG CHANG.. THEY ALL WANNA SELL HOMES!
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I think resale is going to be tough until the new sales are wrapped up.  With the price range where they are, people are more likely to buy something new and be able to customize it. 

I am amazed at the number of RE agent signs in Woodbury area.
 
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