Dow?

Ok, so here are the considerations from past few days of news:

1. CARES act payments to citizens are running out by end of July and the new stimulus is not considering mailing checks out to citizens.
2. 30% of mortgage/rent payments this month are late, partially paid, or not paid at all.
3. Wells Fargo requires $1M deposit before they give loan to new customers.
4. US bank lowered max LTV to 60% on refi and increasing costs/pricing to slowdown the flood of apps (not confirmed)
5. Most lenders deal with only PR, confirming loans. They do not want to touch Jumbo or investment property loans.
6. Chase put aside $1B to cover for the losses they foresee on the loans.
7. Other banks have taken similar measures and put aside Billion$.
8. YTD the stock market is up and S&P 500 PE is all time high.

The wide open disconnect between 1-7 and 8 above has to come to correction at some point. And all doomsayers (Ray Dalio, Richard Wolfe, Some top shelf analyst research, etc.)  I have listened to of late are saying 31st July is the inflection point.

What does fellow TIers think?
A. Fold
B. Check
C. All in
 
Tesla stock is being pumped like a dot com bubble.  I sold it at $1900 and got out.

The stock may rise well above $2,000/s until split date.  But I've grown wary of it and will only buy back after a significant drop.
 
momopi said:
Tesla stock is being pumped like a dot com bubble.  I sold it at $1900 and got out.

The stock may rise well above $2,000/s until split date.  But I've grown wary of it and will only buy back after a significant drop.
Click to expand...

This whole market is a bubble...it is being propped up by Robin Hood/amateur traders and people using the stock market to offset their loss of income/job.  It's going to blow up and blow up badly.
 
momopi said:
Tesla stock is being pumped like a dot com bubble.  I sold it at $1900 and got out.

The stock may rise well above $2,000/s until split date.  But I've grown wary of it and will only buy back after a significant drop.
Click to expand...

Whaattt, it?s only going to double from here. :)
 
So yeah... back to pre-Covid numbers and all time highs?

Strange with all these unemployment numbers, businesses closing, businesses not open, etc... I know Trump wants to take credit for it too. :)
 
Market on a tear again, hope you're all invested in QQQ.  The wealthy will become much wealthier on the other side of this pandemic.  I guess I'll just continue to ride the wave.
 
aquabliss said:
Market on a tear again, hope you're all invested in QQQ.  The wealthy will become much wealthier on the other side of this pandemic.  I guess I'll just continue to ride the wave.
Click to expand...

QQQ? SSO my friend.
 
aquabliss said:
Market on a tear again, hope you're all invested in QQQ.  The wealthy will become much wealthier on the other side of this pandemic.  I guess I'll just continue to ride the wave.
Click to expand...
Nasdaq at all time high....hoping there atleast pullback to enter, but it seems to be going up each day.  Some experts say there is possibility of pullback in Sept. Have to see.
 
qwerty said:
aquabliss said:
Market on a tear again, hope you're all invested in QQQ.  The wealthy will become much wealthier on the other side of this pandemic.  I guess I'll just continue to ride the wave.
Click to expand...

QQQ? SSO my friend.
Click to expand...

Why stop at SSO?  Might as well take it to TQQQ.
 
Spigot on full blast.

The Federal Reserve announced a major policy shift Thursday, saying that it is willing to allow inflation to run hotter than normal in order to support the labor market and broader economy.

In a move that Chairman Jerome Powell called a ?robust updating? of Fed policy, the central bank formally agreed to a policy of ?average inflation targeting.? That means it will allow inflation to run ?moderately? above the Fed?s 2% goal ?for some time? following periods when it has run below that objective.
Click to expand...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/27/pow...n-that-could-keep-rates-lower-for-longer.html
 
Wait, wait....let me get this straight....They're implying that what they've been doing thus far has been following a path of *limiting* inflation growth???  Boy, I've been misreading them for over a decade!
 
Powell's speech, in plain English: 

"There is too much debt in the US & globally.  It's hurting growth.  This can be resolved 1 of 2 ways:

1) Widespread defaults (including on sovereign debt)
2) Inflate it away

Today we are accelerating Option #2." 
 
Compressed-Village said:
Powell's speech, in plain English: 

"There is too much debt in the US & globally.  It's hurting growth.  This can be resolved 1 of 2 ways:

1) Widespread defaults (including on sovereign debt)
2) Inflate it away

Today we are accelerating Option #2." 
Click to expand...

The way to reduce debt is to increase borrowing costs.  This is focused on the cost of debt, not debt itself.  As far as "major policy shift", this is anything but and is, in fact, more of the same.  I agree with IC.  Spigot full blast.  We are going to party until we puke, and the hangover will be quite a doozy.  But fortunately most of won't have jobs we'll need to get up early for.
 
daedalus said:
Compressed-Village said:
Powell's speech, in plain English: 

"There is too much debt in the US & globally.  It's hurting growth.  This can be resolved 1 of 2 ways:

1) Widespread defaults (including on sovereign debt)
2) Inflate it away

Today we are accelerating Option #2." 
Click to expand...

The way to reduce debt is to increase borrowing costs.  This is focused on the cost of debt, not debt itself.  As far as "major policy shift", this is anything but and is, in fact, more of the same.  I agree with IC.  Spigot full blast.  We are going to party until we puke, and the hangover will be quite a doozy.  But fortunately most of won't have jobs we'll need to get up early for.
Click to expand...

Three major problems:

1)  The Dow/Investor expects this now.  Fed basically blow off both of its mandates (managing unemployment and inflation) and the Dow was like meh (flat for most of the session and +250 at the end).  This is junkie/addict behavior

2)  Many amateurs have started entering the market to supplement their income (cuz they have reduced hours or no jobs).  Looking like dot.com bubble again.

3)  We did all this tap turning for no tangible result...no infrastructure, no infusion of capital to working/middle class, no national healthcare, no longterm investment of any kind...it's just basically pumping money into the market. 

This will turn out badly in a few years...real bad and people will misinterpret the causes again.  The rich knows and are getting out the game.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/ultra-wealthy-club-stockpiles-cash-as-u-s-economy-fears-grow

Oh by the way...don't look at the dollar. 
 
Irvinecommuter said:
daedalus said:
Compressed-Village said:
Powell's speech, in plain English: 

"There is too much debt in the US & globally.  It's hurting growth.  This can be resolved 1 of 2 ways:

1) Widespread defaults (including on sovereign debt)
2) Inflate it away

Today we are accelerating Option #2." 
Click to expand...

The way to reduce debt is to increase borrowing costs.  This is focused on the cost of debt, not debt itself.  As far as "major policy shift", this is anything but and is, in fact, more of the same.  I agree with IC.  Spigot full blast.  We are going to party until we puke, and the hangover will be quite a doozy.  But fortunately most of won't have jobs we'll need to get up early for.
Click to expand...

Three major problems:

1)  The Dow/Investor expects this now.  Fed basically blow off both of its mandates (managing unemployment and inflation) and the Dow was like meh (flat for most of the session and +250 at the end).  This is junkie/addict behavior

2)  Many amateurs have started entering the market to supplement their income (cuz they have reduced hours or no jobs).  Looking like dot.com bubble again.

3)  We did all this tap turning for no tangible result...no infrastructure, no infusion of capital to working/middle class, no national healthcare, no longterm investment of any kind...it's just basically pumping money into the market. 

This will turn out badly in a few years...real bad and people will misinterpret the causes again.  The rich knows and are getting out the game.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/ultra-wealthy-club-stockpiles-cash-as-u-s-economy-fears-grow

Oh by the way...don't look at the dollar.
Click to expand...

When was the last time we hear about balancing the budget?

How do we keep government in check? Government spending is now 60% of US GDP. Now all sides wadding this magic wand of rescue bills in trillions to win votes.

Central Bank and central planning flunked for the everyday Americans. But don?t look, investment banks made out like a bandit. The only real plan they have is to siphons and leave everyone with the bills. And inflations is stealth theft of the people to pay for deficits. That?s is the real central plan grand schemes.
 
Compressed-Village said:
When was the last time we hear about balancing the budget?

How do we keep government in check? Government spending is now 60% of US GDP. Now all sides wadding this magic wand of rescue bills in trillions to win votes.

Central Bank and central planning flunked for the everyday Americans. But don?t look, investment banks made out like a bandit. The only real plan they have is to siphons and leave everyone with the bills. And inflations is stealth theft of the people to pay for deficits. That?s is the real central plan grand schemes.
Click to expand...

I don't actually think government spending is bad per se...it is just being spent on the wrong things.  Just like the Trump tax cut went to the top 1% while hurting the middle class with the capping of SALT and elimination of deductions like home office (who couldn't use that now?). 

If the money was being spent as direct infusion to the middle/lower class, it will be spent and recirculated to pump up the economy.  Instead, we still have this trickle-down mindset where only the rich and the corporations can be trusted with money. 
 
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