coronavirus

qwerty said:
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/multiple-...e-officer-180400554--abc-news-topstories.html

16 unnecessary deaths today. Why dont we ban guns?

Cuomo - you don?t have the right to infect me

QWERTY - you don?t have the right to kill me
Click to expand...

You mentioned in an earlier post about vehicular manslaughter from drunk driving/reckless driving/speeding. But this is a case where the incentive structure works because potential offenders are deterred by possible jail time and license revocation.

People respond to incentives. When the incentive structure doesn't work, we should look for other solutions.

We should ban guns.

The incentive structure is broken here because these mass shooters are not being deterred by the would be punishments.

The incentive structure is also broken for COVID because there's no way in the US to discourage/punish people who don't adhere to best practices and willingly infect others.

Cuomo - you don?t have the right to infect me

QWERTY - you don?t have the right to kill me

Kenkoko - What doesn't kill you just needs a little more time.
 
qwerty said:
We don?t ban alcohol to prevent drunk driving, we don?t ban cars to prevent people dying in car accidents, we don?t ban guns to prevent mass shootings at schools, malls, work places. We don?t ban cell phones from cars, the list goes on and on.

But we are willing to financially ruin half the world for a flu-like virus. All situations can?t be derisked. Still not sure why this particular disease is being treated differently than every other risk. It?s the inconsistency I have an issue with.
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Because they model a 3% fatality rate.

If you had a 3% fatality rate driving to work, you'd quit driving to work really quickly.

Limited data means their projections are nasty high.  In NYC, their early pattern showed 15% going into the hospital and 5% going into ICU.

It's lower, everyone knows it's lower, no one has an data supported idea of how much lower. (sans the recent limited study)  Do you really want to run around business as usual, pretty much assured you will get it (70% transmission rate) and have a 1 in 6 chance of ending up in the hospital? In the hospital getting close to a 1 in 20 chance of dying?  A hospital like NYC hospitals where the staff is dropping under the strain or worse, getting infected themselves?


We need testing to figure out how much it has spread, how many have had it to figure out what the real hospitalization and mortality rates are.  Without them, it's just hopeful thinking.  It's lower, but at the moment, the data is it hospitalizes at 8X and kills at 20X and it will infect somewhere between 2 and 8X.

And yes, I realize the research I linked to would put the equivalent rates at flu level.  If correct, we f-d up, however it's not an f-up in we over-reacted, it's an f-up in we didn't do the testing starting in January, February and March, to figure it out.
 
Many of the protest organizations are Russian sponsored astroturfing.

just reported that most of their websites sponsored by the same Russian-funded org in FLA, all registered at the same time.

eyephone said:
qwerty said:
irvinehomeowner said:
It must be a beach thing.

San Clemente protesters today.

And defiant anti social distancing to boot.
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It?s a whit thing :)

White Americans have been raised their whole here and ingrained into their head that we have freedoms other countries don?t
Click to expand...

It just another conspiracy theory.
Click to expand...
 
freedomcm said:
Many of the protest organizations are Russian sponsored astroturfing.

just reported that most of their websites sponsored by the same Russian-funded org in FLA, all registered at the same time.

eyephone said:
qwerty said:
irvinehomeowner said:
It must be a beach thing.

San Clemente protesters today.

And defiant anti social distancing to boot.
Click to expand...

It?s a whit thing :)

White Americans have been raised their whole here and ingrained into their head that we have freedoms other countries don?t
Click to expand...

It just another conspiracy theory.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Imagine comes closer to elections this year, attempts will be heavy and broad.
 
@nsr - a different way to look at is would the government shut down driving/ban cars if there was a 3% fatality rate? Highly unlikely.

And if we all know the advertised death rate is lower, we should act on it vs waiting for hard numbers. We can?t let perfect be the enemy of good (am I using that right? :)

And i think it would be fair to say we F-up in both respects,  not testing to have better data and that we over-reacted. Ultimately everything is judged on outcome/results.

If the antibody testing shows we have had significantly more exposure in the population and use that data to relax measures, why not operate under the assumption and start letting business open? We have to open businesses anyway. My point has been you go all out and shut it down till a vaccine/treatment is available or you just leave everything open.
 
qwerty said:
@nsr - a different way to look at is would the government shut down driving/ban cars if there was a 3% fatality rate? Highly unlikely.

And if we all know the advertised death rate is lower, we should act on it vs waiting for hard numbers. We can?t let perfect be the enemy of good (am I using that right? :)

And i think it would be fair to say we F-up in both respects,  not testing to have better data and that we over-reacted. Ultimately everything is judged on outcome/results.

If the antibody testing shows we have had significantly more exposure in the population and use that data to relax measures, why not operate under the assumption and start letting business open? We have to open businesses anyway. My point has been you go all out and shut it down till a vaccine/treatment is available or you just leave everything open.
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Hard data versus assumptions.


We have data that shows us it is massively higher, and an assumption that it is lower.

Or the other way to look at it, how high is the hospitalization rate or fatality before you modify your behavior and don't go sit in a movie theater, don't congregate at Diamond Jamboree, don't go sit in a full restaurant?

Because honestly, if cars killed 3%, they'd be banned or substantially modified really quickly.  Particularly if a large percentage of that kill rate wasn't the drivers.





Edit for scale comparison: vehicle accidents result in 38,000 deaths a year, about the same as the flu. They hospitalize 200,000 and create 2.5 million urgent care/ER visits. That's with nearly all adults driving or riding that's with 83% driving frequently (multiple times per week). 

That 83% is a good stand in for a high side estimate of infection spread.  The equivalent NYC rate numbers for cars at 83% would be 41 million hospitalizations and 8.2 million deaths.  Do you think Cars would get curtailed until that is addressed?



 
This is a plague and sorry comparing it to car accidents is not the same.
A person has a choice to get into a car. But a person does not have a choice to get corona. They just get it.

 
Majority of Public opinion across the United States says what I have been saying about the virus. See previous article regarding poll relating the handling of the virus.

Just like Measure B. I am always correct.
 
A rumor I heard is that Russia is paying for Facebook ads regarding anti social distancing. It does not surprise me if is true.
 
600 deaths divide by 221,000 infections = .27%
600 deaths divide by 442,000 infections = .135%

That is based on an extrapolation. About 850 people tested which they deemed a representative sample.

Per CDC site using the low end end of the range for flu infections and deaths, the death rate is .0626

So about 2-4 times deadlier than the flu.


 
Kenkoko said:
qwerty said:
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/multiple-...e-officer-180400554--abc-news-topstories.html

16 unnecessary deaths today. Why dont we ban guns?

Cuomo - you don?t have the right to infect me

QWERTY - you don?t have the right to kill me
Click to expand...

You mentioned in an earlier post about vehicular manslaughter from drunk driving/reckless driving/speeding. But this is a case where the incentive structure works because potential offenders are deterred by possible jail time and license revocation.

People respond to incentives. When the incentive structure doesn't work, we should look for other solutions.

We should ban guns.

The incentive structure is broken here because these mass shooters are not being deterred by the would be punishments.

The incentive structure is also broken for COVID because there's no way in the US to discourage/punish people who don't adhere to best practices and willingly infect others.

Cuomo - you don?t have the right to infect me

QWERTY - you don?t have the right to kill me

Kenkoko - What doesn't kill you just needs a little more time.
Click to expand...


The single most important lesson to be learned from COVID-19 incident is a stark reminder that when there is a famine, people will feed themselves before giving/selling any food to you.  When the hospitals of Lombardy were filling up with corpses and medical staff fainting from exhaustion, where was help from other Italian provinces and EU members?  Italy was in dire need of ventilators and what was the response from Germany and France?  They hoarded the equipment to save their own people.  When pressed, Germany agreed to airlift some patients from Italy to Germany, but you know what?s not being said is the purpose was to keep the vital medical equipment IN Germany.  So much for ?community?.

We were very fortunate that COVID-19 has low fatality rate and killed mostly seniors.  Thus, grocery deliveries and amazon delivery trucks kept coming to keep us well stocked, minus the toilet paper.  But imagine if the virus impact had killed far greater number of people across all age groups.  What happens when the trucks stop coming and your local grocery stores are emptied within days?  Who will maintain and repair utility infrastructure when it?s down?  What will you do when you call 911 and no police or ambulance is coming, because the police station and hospitals are down?  We?re not even there yet and we?re already emptying our jails and cops have stopped responding to minor crimes in many areas.

These are the kinds of ?SHTF? (Sh*t hits the fan) scenario that we prepare for our families.  It starts with storing necessities like food, water, and medicine because you cannot eat your firearms and ammunition when you?re hungry.  But the purpose of having a firearm is so that when people try to take your stuff, you have a force multiplier that goes bang.  Without means of defense, a group of desperate men arriving at your door to commit strong arm robbery may result ? optimistically, with you and your family on the sidewalk with only the cloths on your backs, as your children ask ?I?m hungry? you have no answer other than weeping and gnashing of teeth.  There are worse outcomes.  Hopefully you prepped buckets of supplies buried somewhere accessible.

If you expect the government to provide help, take a good look at how many millions of people live in LA/OC area.  FEMA does not have the capability to deliver enough food and water to feed even a fraction of the people here in timely fashion.  Do the math.  Despite the added risk and liability, I?d still prefer to be armed than neutered.  For those who are physically and mentally capable of handling a firearm, you might want to put that on the prep list AFTER food/water/medicine.  Unlike long-term storage food, simply storing a pile of firearms is not going to be effective.  Buy fewer firearms and learn to use what you bought well.  As they say fear the man who only owns one gun, because he knows how to use it.
 
Kings said:
aquabliss said:
Uhhhh so ya this is pretty big news:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/cor...p-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

Why don't they publish the new death rate instead of just say "its lower than we thought"?  I'm too lazy to do the math.
Click to expand...

.1% death rate just isn't sexy
Click to expand...

I have been reading similar headlines for the past couple days but something just isn't adding up.  We've seen how COVID-19 swept through nursing homes like wildfire, killing large #s in a short period of time.  The suggestion that  a LOT of people are already infected would suggest that it has either been around longer than we think, or that it is unimaginably infectious.  I'm not sure how either could be the case.  If this was reaching nursing homes before the word "Wuhan" ever made it to the nightly news, we would have known something was up at that point, wouldn't we.  Could scores of people in nursing homes have been dying in January without alerting someone high up that something big was afoot? 

If it IS true, then we are closer to herd immunity, and we may have indeed been crying wolf to some extent.
 
eyephone said:
I have the right to be shaken up if someone coughs in front of me. As you already know professional athletes had gotten it. (Most likely healthier than the average person)

There are side effects of the virus such as loss of sense of smell and taste, seizures, hallucinations.
Click to expand...

Daily Mail Article: Wuhan doctors who were critically ill with coronavirus wake up to find that their skin has turned dark after virus damaged their liver

Their abnormal skin colour is caused by hormonal imbalances after their livers were damaged by the virus, their doctor told Chinese state media.

Dr Li suspected that the two medics' skin turned dark due to a type of medicine they had received at the beginning of the treatment.

He added that one of the drug's side effects is the darkening of the skin colour. He did not name the drug.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...itically-ill-COVID-19-wake-darkened-skin.html
 
momopi said:
Kenkoko said:
qwerty said:
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/multiple-...e-officer-180400554--abc-news-topstories.html

16 unnecessary deaths today. Why dont we ban guns?

Cuomo - you don?t have the right to infect me

QWERTY - you don?t have the right to kill me
Click to expand...

You mentioned in an earlier post about vehicular manslaughter from drunk driving/reckless driving/speeding. But this is a case where the incentive structure works because potential offenders are deterred by possible jail time and license revocation.

People respond to incentives. When the incentive structure doesn't work, we should look for other solutions.

We should ban guns.

The incentive structure is broken here because these mass shooters are not being deterred by the would be punishments.

The incentive structure is also broken for COVID because there's no way in the US to discourage/punish people who don't adhere to best practices and willingly infect others.

Cuomo - you don?t have the right to infect me

QWERTY - you don?t have the right to kill me

Kenkoko - What doesn't kill you just needs a little more time.
Click to expand...


The single most important lesson to be learned from COVID-19 incident is a stark reminder that when there is a famine, people will feed themselves before giving/selling any food to you.  When the hospitals of Lombardy were filling up with corpses and medical staff fainting from exhaustion, where was help from other Italian provinces and EU members?  Italy was in dire need of ventilators and what was the response from Germany and France?  They hoarded the equipment to save their own people.  When pressed, Germany agreed to airlift some patients from Italy to Germany, but you know what?s not being said is the purpose was to keep the vital medical equipment IN Germany.  So much for ?community?.

We were very fortunate that COVID-19 has low fatality rate and killed mostly seniors.  Thus, grocery deliveries and amazon delivery trucks kept coming to keep us well stocked, minus the toilet paper.  But imagine if the virus impact had killed far greater number of people across all age groups.  What happens when the trucks stop coming and your local grocery stores are emptied within days?  Who will maintain and repair utility infrastructure when it?s down?  What will you do when you call 911 and no police or ambulance is coming, because the police station and hospitals are down?  We?re not even there yet and we?re already emptying our jails and cops have stopped responding to minor crimes in many areas.

These are the kinds of ?SHTF? (Sh*t hits the fan) scenario that we prepare for our families.  It starts with storing necessities like food, water, and medicine because you cannot eat your firearms and ammunition when you?re hungry.  But the purpose of having a firearm is so that when people try to take your stuff, you have a force multiplier that goes bang.  Without means of defense, a group of desperate men arriving at your door to commit strong arm robbery may result ? optimistically, with you and your family on the sidewalk with only the cloths on your backs, as your children ask ?I?m hungry? you have no answer other than weeping and gnashing of teeth.  There are worse outcomes.  Hopefully you prepped buckets of supplies buried somewhere accessible.

If you expect the government to provide help, take a good look at how many millions of people live in LA/OC area.  FEMA does not have the capability to deliver enough food and water to feed even a fraction of the people here in timely fashion.  Do the math.  Despite the added risk and liability, I?d still prefer to be armed than neutered.  For those who are physically and mentally capable of handling a firearm, you might want to put that on the prep list AFTER food/water/medicine.  Unlike long-term storage food, simply storing a pile of firearms is not going to be effective.  Buy fewer firearms and learn to use what you bought well.  As they say fear the man who only owns one gun, because he knows how to use it.
Click to expand...

This pandemic exposed us.

US may still be the best place to live during normal good times, but this is not the place to be in a pandemic. I have friends and family in east Asia and their lives are not disrupted like this. We are the richest and most advanced country in the world, but we don't have the ability to execute the best options because our system and healthcare are like byzantine labyrinths. And many of us refuse to be smart and sacrifice individual freedom for the greater good in a time of crisis. So we are constantly stuck with picking the less sh*tty option.

You're right about guns if we ever have another pandemic that's not low fatality rate and killed mostly seniors. It'd be safer for people to buy guns and ammos. We do have more than 300 million firearms in the country, enough to arm every man woman and child.

Hopefully after this is all over, people start asking themselves if this really makes them safer.

 
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