Coronavirus Recession

aquabliss said:
Kenkoko said:

Noooooo, so sad.  Foothill Ranch Souplantation was my favorite.  Always clean and well stocked.  Only solstice I have is that I ate there the day before they shut down, place was empty and I enjoyed the Tuna Taragon, Joan?s Broccoli Madness, Chicken Noodle, Cream of Mushroon Soup, Blueberry Muffins, Cornbread, sourdough, focaccia, soft serve.

I will miss you my friend, may you Rest In Peace.
I'm a big Soupy fan. My hope is that we see the Company brought back to life in 2, 3 or even 5 years.  I figure it will take a few years of the virus to be gone before we start to see some new views of things that just couldn't run during however long this Virus lasts for.  My presumption is places like Boomers, Dave & Busters, will also be gone. 
 
qwerty said:
irvinehomeowner said:
I think someone already mentioned this but for all you anti-lockdown proponents, what do you think what have happened if we didn?t shelter in and Covid spread more widely?

I?ll say it again, if you are going  to die from contracting the virus you are going to to die when you get it, it?s just a matter of whether it?s today, tomorrow, next week or next month. Unless there is a treatment or vaccine you may as well stay home until then. The virus isn?t going away.

So what are you stay at home people suggesting? Do you want limited openings? No openings? You are welcome to stay home or go out to whatever place based on your risk tolerance? Not sure what the opposition to fully opening is.
The hard part is you look at somewhere like Germany and they just were more swift & better at their response and they might have nipped this thing in the butt.  Than again, they might not have.  If there is no stopping it...than it is just a matter of doing enough to ensure you buy time for hospitals to maintain capacity and beds to treat people (and to your point...anything else is just delaying the inevitable).  I hope that isn't the case but who knows. 
 
The other element the qwerty protocol is overlooking is how infections/sick workers will affect the economy/supply chain under this free-for-all environment.

Right now, meat processing is an essential business so there were no lockdowns for them... yet, they are not open because Covid spread throughout their workforce and they had to close.

That will have a cascading effect... just like it is now with grocery stores limiting meat purchases... but would have happened sooner than later.

Additionally, other sectors had to shut down regardless (like airlines) so that would also hamper business. Everything is so interconnected that just people getting sick and voluntary lockdowns would have a similar effect on our econonomy as our current protocols, except we would have more people sick/dead and our healthcare system would be taxed beyond capacity.

To be clear, I totally support reopening what can be opened as long as safety is adhered to and enforced. But we can't have that "I don't need to wear a mask" attitude because that's one of the easiest ways to help prevent spread. What is the big issue about wearing a mask anyways? Is that so painful? You have to wear shoes and shirts in most establishments and I don't see anyone crying about their constitutional rights for that.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
The other element the qwerty protocol is overlooking is how infections/sick workers will affect the economy/supply chain under this free-for-all environment.

Right now, meat processing is an essential business so there were no lockdowns for them... yet, they are not open because Covid spread throughout their workforce and they had to close.

That will have a cascading effect... just like it is now with grocery stores limiting meat purchases... but would have happened sooner than later.

Additionally, other sectors had to shut down regardless (like airlines) so that would also hamper business. Everything is so interconnected that just people getting sick and voluntary lockdowns would have a similar effect on our econonomy as our current protocols, except we would have more people sick/dead and our healthcare system would be taxed beyond capacity.

To be clear, I totally support reopening what can be opened as long as safety is adhered to and enforced. But we can't have that "I don't need to wear a mask" attitude because that's one of the easiest ways to help prevent spread. What is the big issue about wearing a mask anyways? Is that so painful? You have to wear shoes and shirts in most establishments and I don't see anyone crying about their constitutional rights for that.

ABC News Article:
Officials in San Bernardino and Riverside counties announced Friday that face coverings are no longer required, but still strongly recommended.

According to a news release from San Bernardino County officials, although no longer regulated by a county health order, gatherings and short-term rentals are still prohibited and physical distancing at essential businesses are still required under the state's "stay-at-home" order.

On Friday night, the Riverside County Board of Supervisors approved a motion to rescind county health orders, lifting the requirement for residents to wear masks in the county.

In San Bernardino County, they'll soon be offering $2,500 cash to businesses who want to become "Covid-compliant" with things like hand sanitizer, transparent barricades and personal protective equipment.
https://abc7.com/san-bernardino-county-masks-riverside-face-shields-inland-empire/6164877/

If masks are not for you consider going/shopping in the inland empire.
It is kind of a mixed message. No mask okay, but if your business is covid compliant you can possibly qualify for $2.5k from San Bernardino.
 
Bullsback said:
aquabliss said:
Kenkoko said:

Noooooo, so sad.  Foothill Ranch Souplantation was my favorite.  Always clean and well stocked.  Only solstice I have is that I ate there the day before they shut down, place was empty and I enjoyed the Tuna Taragon, Joan?s Broccoli Madness, Chicken Noodle, Cream of Mushroon Soup, Blueberry Muffins, Cornbread, sourdough, focaccia, soft serve.

I will miss you my friend, may you Rest In Peace.
I'm a big Soupy fan. My hope is that we see the Company brought back to life in 2, 3 or even 5 years.  I figure it will take a few years of the virus to be gone before we start to see some new views of things that just couldn't run during however long this Virus lasts for.  My presumption is places like Boomers, Dave & Busters, will also be gone.

I wonder if Chuck E. Cheese makes it through.  Somehow that awful place has survived for decades but it's nicknamed "Chuck E. Sneeze" for a reason.  I am sure parents of preschoolers won't shed a tear if it doesn't. 
 
Gov. Newsom refuses to back down, or answer any questions, about his racist attack against nail salons. Newsom has zero qualms about throwing the Vietnamese community under the bus to make sure public panic is maintained:


https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Newsom-says-California-s-first-community-spread-15259507.php?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headlines&utm_campaign=sfc_politicalpunch
 
Happiness said:
Gov. Newsom refuses to back down, or answer any questions, about his racist attack against nail salons. Newsom has zero qualms about throwing the Vietnamese community under the bus to make sure public panic is maintained:


https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Newsom-says-California-s-first-community-spread-15259507.php?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headlines&utm_campaign=sfc_politicalpunch

1. But you do not acknowledge that there is zero covid cases in Vietnam.
2. Stating where he believes the covid outbreak started in California is not racist. Do you think he just made it up? (Like someone who recommended bleach to treat covid.)

 
As I predicted, many company will find that using remote employees works for them and they will reduce office space, like Twitter:
https://www.engadget.com/twitter-allows-working-from-home-indefinitely-182153248.html

Numerous tech giants are letting staff work from home for months while pandemic concerns persist, but Twitter is taking things one step further. The social network has confirmed to BuzzFeed News that it will let many staff work from home indefinitely, not just until COVID-19 is no longer a looming threat. Some people will have to come in for server maintenance and other in-person activities, but those who can justify working remotely might not have to set foot in the office again.

In a letter to employees announcing the policy, Twitter chief Jack Dorsey said it was unlikely the company would reopen offices or allow most business travel until September, with in-person events cancelled for 2020. He added that Twitter would boost its work from home supply allowance to $1,000.

Maybe this will cause remote workers to look for bigger homes so they can have a dedicated office space. :)
 
At the large tech companies, 50% of the job roles can be done remotely. Prior to covid, many were already working 2-3 days a week from home. This should be a good learning experience for all companies. I can see a lot of companies leaning more towards remote and WFH post covid.
 
Work from home will be one thing that will stick after every state re-opens. Why spend $1000 PSF in Newport or San Jose when you can pay far, far less in a work from home environment?

GP Office space REITs like BXP, SLG, and HPP are now something to avoid like the plague... er? can we still use that phrase?

My .02c
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
GP Office space REITs like BXP, SLG, and HPP are now something to avoid like the plague... er? can we still use that phrase?

no, that's virist.  now put your mask back on and don't leave the house for another 3 months.
 
Kings said:
Soylent Green Is People said:
GP Office space REITs like BXP, SLG, and HPP are now something to avoid like the plague... er? can we still use that phrase?

no, that's virist.  now put your mask back on and don't leave the house for another 3 months.

True, true, avoid it like a Trump Casino deal.  :)
 
The only REITs that I would even think about buying would be apartment and big box industrial/distribution warehouse REITs....office and retail REITs, not so much.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Here's the other sad part, the vast majority of the people that lost their jobs are low/lower paying no college degree folks and I'd venture to bet that many of those jobs aren't coming back. They mentioned on CNBC that the unemployment rate for college graduated folks is around 8% now while being well over 20% for non-college educated folks. This recession will further separate the haves and the have-nots.

The April jobs data sadly backs this up. This recession / depression will indeed exacerbate income inequality.

35% of the lowest-paid (bottom 20%) workers have lost their jobs
9% of the highest-paid (top 20%) workers have lost their jobs

The damage has been so imbalanced that the average U.S. wage has "grown" 8% just by removing so many low-wage workers from the pool.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/08/awful-reason-wages-appeared-soar-middle-pandemic/
 
Kenkoko said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Here's the other sad part, the vast majority of the people that lost their jobs are low/lower paying no college degree folks and I'd venture to bet that many of those jobs aren't coming back. They mentioned on CNBC that the unemployment rate for college graduated folks is around 8% now while being well over 20% for non-college educated folks. This recession will further separate the haves and the have-nots.

The April jobs data sadly backs this up. This recession / depression will indeed exacerbate income inequality.

35% of the lowest-paid (bottom 20%) workers have lost their jobs
9% of the highest-paid (top 20%) workers have lost their jobs

The damage has been so imbalanced that the average U.S. wage has "grown" 8% just by removing so many low-wage workers from the pool.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/08/awful-reason-wages-appeared-soar-middle-pandemic/

Once things are opened up (except things like events, sports etc) and people find out cities, counties and states are going to have massive spending cuts and projects that "were" approved with funding promised are suddenly no longer we'll see a whole lot of trickle down cuts. Lots of businesses are going to be in a heap of trouble and it's not going to be just the little guys paying. Unless the feds come in and print money and toss it out to states, etc, going to feel like the OC BK 26 years ago.
 
Ready2Downsize said:
Unless the feds come in and print money and toss it out to states, etc, going to feel like the OC BK 26 years ago.
They're going to have to, I think.  Low/zero interest loans.  Trillions more on the balance sheet.  The local weekly rag has published a few numbers on revenue drops.  My tiny berg is a microcosm of what must be happening in cities everywhere.  We're in deep shit.
 
daedalus said:
Ready2Downsize said:
Unless the feds come in and print money and toss it out to states, etc, going to feel like the OC BK 26 years ago.
They're going to have to, I think.  Low/zero interest loans.  Trillions more on the balance sheet.  The local weekly rag has published a few numbers on revenue drops.  My tiny berg is a microcosm of what must be happening in cities everywhere.  We're in deep shit.

But we flattened the curve!!
 
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