Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa

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I don't think the subprime is over here on the West side. There is a house on Surf that was foreclosed last July and the people still live there. Across the street from them is the sex house, which was scheduled to go to auction. Over on Beach there is the short sale that disappeared, which I think means it's being foreclosed. You have another short sale attempt on Beach and then another long time listing on Arnold that again has disappeared, which I suspect means it's foreclosed. A few houses down you have a large Hispanic family who bought in Nov '07 for $500K and have quite paying their mortgage and I hear the house next door, which is on the corner of Meyer and Seal has joined them.

Then of course you've have those short sale attempts on W Bay and Knowlwood. If you add all these up, that will be far more than were on the market in '08 and this is just a several block radius. I think '09 will have even more foreclosures than '08 over here. Over in this little enclave I tallied it up and approximately 1 out of 7 homes have gone or will go to foreclosure.

This next little wave that I've mentioned should be the end over here as almost everyone else is an equity owner. Interestingly, most of the REO's over here have become owner occupied by what seem to be nice neighbors. While all the foreclosures over here were owner occupied, they were almost all people who could not afford the home and made the payments by packing in way too many people and still didn't have anything left over at the end of the month to properly maintain the property.
 
so you think that there will be another wave hitting the market in the late summer/fall? the current inventory of sub $400k houses has shrunk to almost nothing.

just looking at sales, the west-side went from almost half of the market to 10% in the past six months.
 
With 11% unemployment and a pending Federal bailot or lack thereof... I think the direction is self evident.

The west side is more interesting though. Sub-400 homes are problematic. If interest rates stay low, PITI is below $2400... not including any income tax savings. Literally, one of the homes that sold has a PITI of $1600.
 
Even for the $250k houses (and there are starting to be a few, so far dogs, but soon decent), you still have to have jobs.

If nominal UE is "only" 11%, you know that U-6 is 20% or more. And for the undocumented community, I would bet that 'underemployment' is even higher. Fewer hours per week of landscaping, construction, fast food, janitorial, etc

$8/hr x 20h/wk x 4 workers = $2500/month gross. Not enough to buy, or even rent those $250k houses.

I only see downward pressure for several years for the west-side, along with SA, Anaheim, GG, El Modena, parts of Orange, HB, Tustin...all the way down to SJC
 
freedomCM said:
so you think that there will be another wave hitting the market in the late summer/fall? the current inventory of sub $400k houses has shrunk to almost nothing.

just looking at sales, the west-side went from almost half of the market to 10% in the past six months.
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I'm not sure when they will hit the market, but I do know that they are out there. I have no idea what the deal with 640 Surf is, but the $566K sale in July of '08 had to be the bank taking it back, yet it's never come on the market. Redfin is now showing 1952 Arnold as sold May 4th for $325K. I suspect that was the bank taking it back. The two on Beach are no longer showing as active, nor as sold. One more on Surf that will be REO soon and one more on Ross. In the last 13 months there were 6 sales, all of which were distressed here in this little enclave. There should be at least 7 in the next 6 months if the banks put them on the market.

The following properties will likely be problematic based on their sales price. 1965 Arnold, 653 Ross (I think this one is already scheduled for Auction) and 648, 665 and 645 Beach (one of which is listed as a short sale) and 641 Seal. Everyone else should be an equity owner unless they did the HELOC thing. Assuming no more HELOC losers, that would make a total of around 20 distressed sales out of approximately 85 houses throughout the cycle and only 9 of them have flushed through so far.

652 Cove was delisted early last week and I supect that was because they had multiple offers, so I'm counting that as one of the 9 that have flushed. It was a mad house last weekend and it was one of the nicest REO's I've seen in the SW.

Lots of properties in the Canyon area are scheduled for auction, so if the banks take them back and sell them like they are supposed to, then there should a good amount of new inventory.
 
My neighbor told me that these guys had stopped paying their mortgage as well. The purchase price was $191K in '99, but the 2008 taxable value is $346K. It has been added on to, but the property tax is showing the land being assessed at $300K and the additions at $46K. I suppose they could have taken out a second, heloc or done a refi to pay for the addition and now can't pay?

1993 Meyer

I just took a stroll down Surf and see that 640 is still indeed occupied. It doesn't look like they have any intentions of moving as they have recently acquired some new outdoor furniture. 1952 Arnold looks like people are in there doing some work, so the $325K may have been the short sale going through. 664 Beach is now empty and by the looks of the lawn, it has been for 3-4 weeks, but Redfin doesn't show a sale yet. The fascia on part of the front has brand new bare wood on it, which makes me think termite work, so perhaps they achieved their short sale as well.
 
For the most part the CM market has been BORING. One of the few interesting things is the vast number of short sales that are closing escrow. I had expected many of these to go REO, but quite a few have closed. I still don't know where the inventory is over here in the SW, but quite a bit of the for sales here are short sale listings.

People seem to be buying in the nice parts, but I still want to know who these people are. My hubby and I earn over 2 x times, maybe 2 1/2 time the median income for CM and had we not bought the two houses we did buy, would have DP of approximately $120K, yet even with that there still hasn't been anything really nice that we could have afforded.

That being said, I'm not sure CM's median income really says all that much about the city. I went to Shirley's Bagel's on Sat for the first time in many years and was astounded at the crowd. I felt like I was back in CDM by all the over manicured/pampered moms and their kids and super hip young people that were in there. The patrons seemed way more monied than CM.
 
It appears that sometimes Redfin misses a sale, which helped explain the mystery of 640 Surf. I thought someone saw another sale after the July 2008 foreclosure. I never saw it on the MLS. Whoever bought it has put some money into it and just listed it today. It must have been rented when I would see people living there. Investor decided they didn't want to be a landlord? I haven't walked over there in a while. Ever since BK's post about the house on surf, the street creeps me out.

640 Surf

It's priced about 10% over what an REO would list for and I expect it will go contingent within a few days. Prett much anything under $400K sells fast here in the ghetto Freedom refers to as the "bad" part of CM.
 
yes, what I'm looking for is when the pace slows this fall. will the banks lower prices then to move the inventory, or will it just sit there? or will the cash buyers really step up?
 
xoneinax said:
stepping_up said:
640 Surf
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$400/SF on a 6650 SF lot in that part of CM ? Seems a bit high; lets see what the market says.
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most of the sales in that neighborhood over the past year have been in the mid 300s/sf.

I guess it will depend on how "lite and bite" and "turnkey" the thing is after the renovations.
 
Okay... I'm too lazy to search for a better Costa Mesa thread to post this in, but since I know you CM fans will see it here, and how I know you will find it interesting... Then you will forgive me. So... I'm scanning through the foreclosures at the Placentia auction, and I stopped to drool over the Newport home one block from the water on 35th got postponed to October... sigh. And then... I see a $20M+ property in CM, but there is no address, it just says northwest corner of Newport and 19th. Well here is the NW corner...

http://i31.tinypic.com/5yasue.jpg

Heh... notice the for lease sign on the bottom left... Who told me CRE was going to be fine back in 07 and even 08?
 
For a moment I though this was the back view of Triangle Square itself, which does have its own problems keeping tenants !

This is right across the street; I think the bottom floor is sometimes a club on Friday and Saturday nites.
 
"freedomCM said:
most of the sales in that neighborhood over the past year have been in the mid 300s/sf.
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I know you are correct, but somehow this looks more dumpy than those others. I mean how hard would it be to paint the concrete patio ? Cant something decent be found at $400/SF over in Santa Ana/Newport Heights ? I guess the 8k incentive will make people jump on this.
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