Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa

the realtor neighbor on the corner with the big monstrosity house said his agency handled the short sale on Cove. He told me that the guy who had it somehow had bought a property over in Mesa Verde and walked on this one.
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1227082730]How do you know what the CS was at the time of the last sale?</blockquote>


just look it up on the spreadsheet!



(can be downloaded from s&p, or pm me and i can email it)
 
what is up with that? I keep seeing stuff lower and lower every month consecutively, yet this shows that things haven't changed all that much... is just the lower end getting lower and everthing else not, so it looks like it's not moving down much?
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1229433832]Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa

SFR <$900k, a few nice condos



Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date

JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004

April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004

May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004

June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004

July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004

Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004

Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004

Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004

<strong>Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004</strong>





Sales volume dropped a bit and prices dropped nominally in November. I added the mean and se for the selling price to the stats this month. This is of course biased by the houses that I personally track (excluding lower end condos and higher end SFRs), but it does track every sale of SFRs below $900k in the market. (I do actually track some above $900k for kicks and giggles, but none of them have sold in the past year, maybe not surprisingly)



Most of these sales went into escrow October And as the month progressed, the CS values dropped, but not the big drops with the tightening credit that we were looking for.



We?ll see what December brings?</blockquote>


Good stuff freedom. So CM has rolled back a bit deeper than Irvine but has been essentially flat all year as well. I thought when I opened up to lower end properties that I'd start to see them drag down the CS index but it hasn't happened yet. I do see the signs of stress on the Irvine low end but the volumes have been low enough that people paying 2005 prices on higher-end homes has countered those deeper cuts.



I have noticed closings picking up quite a bit of late. Seems like no one was closing anything in early December but now, they have started popping through with regularity again.
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1229434872]what is up with that? I keep seeing stuff lower and lower every month consecutively, yet this shows that things haven't changed all that much... is just the lower end getting lower and everthing else not, so it looks like it's not moving down much?</blockquote>




Its hard to know, really. I was looking at the data last night and couldn't figure it out.



One thing is that there were several sales of nicely renovated mesa verde properties, and a few on the east and west sides, that drove the values up (CS=247, 222,222, 216). One was the CM Flip-that-house. These sales counterbalanced the few that sold for 2001 prices on the west-side and south coast areas.(CS=119,122,125)



Of course, with only 29 sales last month, it is too small a sample to be able to break it out by neighborhood in any reliable way, just annectodately.
 
price is mean, median is down more (sorry, spreadsheet not currently available), as there were a couple of high priced sales.



but remember, CS is same-sale comparisons historically, not so much about absolute price points.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1234971623]There have been some good foreclosures on the East side the last couple of weeks, including a couple of multi-unit properties.



And those blue dots are so pretty...



http://i41.tinypic.com/ru1vm0.jpg</blockquote>


Do you have the auction info for the 3 A's that are West of Placentia and South of Victoria?
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1225595717]If I were more dedicated, I could create a nice website like Ipo, but...instead I'll post summaries here.</blockquote>


Thanks for this service, freedomCM! I rented for years in Costa Mesa (currently in Irvine), and have my eye on the city as a possible place to buy when the prices are right.







[quote author="freedomCM" date=1225681943]CS does not adjust for inflation, though you could predict that the value would rise due to it.



Of course, then we get back to the question of for housing, what measure of inflation should we be using? CPI? some measure of CPI less energy? wage inflation?</blockquote>


Ah, I hadn't realized MalibuRenter was calculating the inflation-adjusted versions himself. I believe he uses the CPI minus the Shelter category:



<img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3469/3402181650_eae92dfb4b.jpg" alt="" />







[quote author="freedomCM" date=1226374231](I invited Christine Donovan, above, to join in on the discussion. She is a real estate salesperson/broker in CM. I hope that she can add a bit of perspective here)



She has a website which I visit: http://activerain.com/blogs/cldonovan</blockquote>


Cool, thanks for that link.







[quote author="stepping_up" date=1227075793]The place on Arnold is a real dump. The garage is poorly converted. Nice sized lot, but it backs up to the alley there, which is highly undesirable in this part of town.</blockquote>


Why is that, out of curiosity? Is there more property crime perpetrated against houses backing up alleys around there or something?







[quote author="graphrix" date=1235026462]Figure at least 60% of those green and blue dots will turn into red dots in the next six months.</blockquote>


What do the different dots mean? I'm not familiar with this graph.
 
I don't have any confirmation that lots that back up to alleys in mixed neighborhoods are less desirable, only that they are to me. We looked at a place last year that backed up to the Norm's parking lot. The back door had one of those heavy duty security screens, but you could see that someone had taken a crow bar to it. That was enough for me to say that I wouldn't be 100% comfortable in a home where the bad guys can easily jump your fence.



BK had posted something earier this year that homes with easy freeway access have higher rates of burglaries because the thieves can get away more easily. I think that alleys have some similarity there.
 
I personally would love to back to an alley, with a large detached garage, or rental unit, off the alley.



But because they are 'less public', they can attract crime in some neighborhoods.





And I'm glad that someone finds my obsession with Costa Mesa house pricing useful.



March update (with a big surprise) coming soon!
 
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