"4 weeks and then all hell breaks loose"

[Geotpf_IHB]

Well, it's been about four weeks since I've posted this thread, and I see no flood of properties in my area-quite the contrary, in fact-supply is microscopic. Oh well.

 

[no_vaseline_IHB]

We needn't guess about your neighborhood either. Street names will do.

Sure. Post your home address first.

 

[RobertLarsen_IHB]

It takes awhile for banks to foreclose on a property and relist it back on the market, yes. But, it doesn't mean that there is a conspiracy to withhold properties from being listed on the market. How long have those properties been sitting vacant and not on the market? Less than 3 months after the bank took it back or more than 3 months? Have you checked to see if possibly investors purchased the property without having to be listed?

The most recent REO on my walk (the one that is listed for sale) was taken to auction in June, and on the market by mid July. I used to work in special assets, they can turn them around a lot quicker than you think. They just aren't. 9 months+ on most of them. Yes, I have the capacity to do a title search, no they haven't sold to investors.

BTW, the listed home is still out there 40+ days because it is listed $100-120K too high IMO. The other eight are in way worse condition and had an average of $650K out on them. The market (a price where they will move) is now about $250K-300K IMO.

I only know what I know, but I know the neighborhood I'm renting in very well.

I believe you. I was mainly talking about Riverside County (i.e. Lake Elsinore). Anytime I've spoken with the foreclosure departments at the banks, they say it takes 3-6 weeks just to have the property put into the database, where it is then assigned to an agent (and I'm sure that takes longer as well).

If you give me a particular zip code in Riverside County to use as an example, I can better answer your question as to when I think I would give up on the idea of there being a shadow inventory.

92532 and Aliso Viejo for Orange County

Foreclosure Radar shows 124 REOs for zip code 92532 and Redfin show 14 of those 124 as being currently listed. It never occured to me that some of the REOs not listed may be in escrow, but the reason it never occurred to me is that I watch the REOs and listings in a particular neighborhood like a hawk and there are very few REOs in escrow in the neighborhood that I watch and there are none which are currently showing on Foreclosure Radar which are not showing on Redfin and are currently in escrow. My guess is that the idea that many of the REOs showing on FR are in escrow is a fallacy. Robert, I do not have access to the listings in escrow in zip 92532, but if you would like to cross check the REO properties in 92532, I will email you the list from FR, and you can see for yourself and tell us how many REOs show up in FR that are in escrow and not on Redfin. Whaddya think? Just PM me your email address. Let's get to the bottom of this.

Just a quick search, I came up with 65 REOs either active or in escrow in 92532. I've been really busy so I can't dig much deeper, but sunday I think I will take you up on your offer.

 

[RobertLarsen_IHB]

I've been watching how you treat people (like Robert), so I was expecting that nothing reply of yours. Your "analysis" was a little short on the "ysis". Stop berating people who know as much or more than you do. Why don't you impress us all with your credentials like you were asked to do? No identifying info, just experience and credentials?

You post the numbers I am asking for, and then I will teach you how to use the search function to find my credentials, that you would easily find if you weren't so lazy (ironically just as lazy as Robert is) to not use the search function.

Leave me out of this graphy. I've searched, and all I've found is regurgitated googled information.

 

[No_Such_Reality_IHB]

Lake Elsinore? The place that became a smoking ruin 18 months ago?

Let me look, pulling up my agent's tool. I see (most recent updates first):

15329 Oak Tree Drive #100, Lake El, marked Pending accepting backup offers. Listed March for $50,000, updated on 8/6 to $91,000, a last updated 8/21, accepting backup offers. Showing Foreclosed 8/25... A doubtful listing and doubtful pending. Not bad looking, basically a brand new 2/2 with garage condo for $74/sf.

15663 Vista Way #110 (Not a foreclosure) but Pending. Vista is a popular REO development. I see the following foreclosures:

15632 VISTA WAY 102

15632 VISTA WAY 106

15635 VISTA WAY 108

15636 VISTA WAY 100

15639 VISTA WAY 100

15640 VISTA WAY 100

15640 VISTA WAY 102

15640 VISTA WAY 108

15647 VISTA WAY 110

15651 VISTA WAY 110

15655 VISTA WAY 108

15659 VISTA WAY 100

Rescaning listings by street name I see:

15632 Vista Way #106 Active - foreclosure - listed 8/12 - Foreclosed 6/11 (that's a 60 day lag...)

15635 Vista Way #102 Active - not a foreclosure

15635 Vista Way #108 Active - foreclosure - listed 1/22/09, last update 8/7/09. Foreclosed 7/27/09... (doubtful listing)

15636 Vista Way #100 Pending - foreclosure - listed 8/25. Foreclosed 8/12.

15636 Vista Way #100 (listed twice and pending both) listed 6/22, price change 7/21, last update 8/28. ( I wonder what's valid and what's game.)

15639 Vista Way #100 Active - listed foreclosure - Foreclosed 7/1/09. Listed 7/30/09. Last update 8/21.

15640 Vista Way #108 Active - listed foreclosure - Foreclosed 6/23/09. Listed 7/23/09. Last update 7/21.

15647 Vista Way #108 Active - not a foreclosure

15655 Vista Way #102 Pending - not a foreclosure

15663 Vista Way #110 Pending - not a foreclosure

Hopefully Vista Way isn't representative. I see 12 REOs, only 5 are listed. And I suspect only 3 are real REO listings and not a fishing realtor. The three likely listings are 30, 30 and 60 day lags on listing and still active.

Going back to my original list, the next REO that matches up is 29106 Allan Street, Lake El. Marked Pending! Accepting backup offers. Listed 7/27. Price change from $138,900 to $144,900 on 8/26. Bank foreclosed 7/16.

Next up is 31683 Canyon Estates Drive, Lake EL. Marked hold (which means nothing). Listed 8/17. Updated (to hold) 8/27. Sold to the bank back on 7/2/09...

Next home on the regular list is 33529 Cedar Creek Lane. It's not a foreclosure. But on hold. Interestingly, I see a bunch of foreclosed REOs on Cedar Creek. So I'll rescan. The agent list shows 7 homes on Cedar Creek listed. I see 5 Cedar Creek homes that are bank REO foreclosures. None of the bank REOs are listed...

I've got a pretty low hit rate. Show me your 65.

 

[RobertLarsen_IHB]

Lake Elsinore? The place that became a smoking ruin 18 months ago?

Let me look, pulling up my agent's tool. I see (most recent updates first):

15329 Oak Tree Drive #100, Lake El, marked Pending accepting backup offers. Listed March for $50,000, updated on 8/6 to $91,000, a last updated 8/21, accepting backup offers. Showing Foreclosed 8/25... A doubtful listing and doubtful pending. Not bad looking, basically a brand new 2/2 with garage condo for $74/sf.

15663 Vista Way #110 (Not a foreclosure) but Pending. Vista is a popular REO development. I see the following foreclosures:

15632 VISTA WAY 102

15632 VISTA WAY 106

15635 VISTA WAY 108

15636 VISTA WAY 100

15639 VISTA WAY 100

15640 VISTA WAY 100

15640 VISTA WAY 102

15640 VISTA WAY 108

15647 VISTA WAY 110

15651 VISTA WAY 110

15655 VISTA WAY 108

15659 VISTA WAY 100

Rescaning listings by street name I see:

15632 Vista Way #106 Active - foreclosure - listed 8/12 - Foreclosed 6/11 (that's a 60 day lag...)

15635 Vista Way #102 Active - not a foreclosure

15635 Vista Way #108 Active - foreclosure - listed 1/22/09, last update 8/7/09. Foreclosed 7/27/09... (doubtful listing)

15636 Vista Way #100 Pending - foreclosure - listed 8/25. Foreclosed 8/12.

15636 Vista Way #100 (listed twice and pending both) listed 6/22, price change 7/21, last update 8/28. ( I wonder what's valid and what's game.)

15639 Vista Way #100 Active - listed foreclosure - Foreclosed 7/1/09. Listed 7/30/09. Last update 8/21.

15640 Vista Way #108 Active - listed foreclosure - Foreclosed 6/23/09. Listed 7/23/09. Last update 7/21.

15647 Vista Way #108 Active - not a foreclosure

15655 Vista Way #102 Pending - not a foreclosure

15663 Vista Way #110 Pending - not a foreclosure

Hopefully Vista Way isn't representative. I see 12 REOs, only 5 are listed. And I suspect only 3 are real REO listings and not a fishing realtor. The three likely listings are 30, 30 and 60 day lags on listing and still active.

Going back to my original list, the next REO that matches up is 29106 Allan Street, Lake El. Marked Pending! Accepting backup offers. Listed 7/27. Price change from $138,900 to $144,900 on 8/26. Bank foreclosed 7/16.

Next up is 31683 Canyon Estates Drive, Lake EL. Marked hold (which means nothing). Listed 8/17. Updated (to hold) 8/27. Sold to the bank back on 7/2/09...

Next home on the regular list is 33529 Cedar Creek Lane. It's not a foreclosure. But on hold. Interestingly, I see a bunch of foreclosed REOs on Cedar Creek. So I'll rescan. The agent list shows 7 homes on Cedar Creek listed. I see 5 Cedar Creek homes that are bank REO foreclosures. None of the bank REOs are listed...

I've got a pretty low hit rate. Show me your 65.

I'm not sure if I understood some of your points, but here is my list.

 

[RobertLarsen_IHB]

When you're looking at the history of the bank owned properties it will not be unusual to see that the property was listed much lower than it was once it was taken over by the bank. That's just what shortsale real estate agents do. They list it on the market far below the market value, or assumed market value, just to draw in offers. The average sold price on short sales in lake elsinore is 102.15%. I'm not sure what system you are searching through but pending means not accepting back up offers. Back-up offers is another status meaning in escrow but prior to removing contingencies so still accepting secondary offers. It could just be different lingo in different systems.

 

[No_Such_Reality_IHB]

Of the 125 Foreclosure listed in ForeclosureRadar, only 37 on your list appear.

The following 28 on your list are not part of the FR list.

31674 Chaparral Way

53220 Ambridge St

9 Del Fiore

16 Via Palmieki

16 VIA PALMIEKI

15626 Vista Way 100

45027 Altissimo Way

45016 Carla

53207 Ambridge St

41038 Burnet ST

18100 Honey Ln

15635 Vista Way 100

32062 Meadow Wood Ln

34017 Winterberry

45024 Bronze Star

31776 Indian Spring Rd

45015 Altissimo Way

31757 Canyon Estates Dr

45015 Promise Rd

31637 Saddle Ridge Dr

45002 Carla Ct

45019 Altissimo Way

33547 Cedar Creek Ln

34238 Aurora Ct

45022 Sonia Dr

53195 Sunsprite St

26 Del Santello

37 Plaza Avila

For the 22 business days ending Sep 30, there are 226 Auctions currently scheduled...

 

[RobertLarsen_IHB]

Of the 125 Foreclosure listed in ForeclosureRadar, only 37 on your list appear.

The following 28 on your list are not part of the FR list.

31674 Chaparral Way

53220 Ambridge St

9 Del Fiore

16 Via Palmieki

16 VIA PALMIEKI

15626 Vista Way 100

45027 Altissimo Way

45016 Carla

53207 Ambridge St

41038 Burnet ST

18100 Honey Ln

15635 Vista Way 100

32062 Meadow Wood Ln

34017 Winterberry

45024 Bronze Star

31776 Indian Spring Rd

45015 Altissimo Way

31757 Canyon Estates Dr

45015 Promise Rd

31637 Saddle Ridge Dr

45002 Carla Ct

45019 Altissimo Way

33547 Cedar Creek Ln

34238 Aurora Ct

45022 Sonia Dr

53195 Sunsprite St

26 Del Santello

37 Plaza Avila

For the 22 business days ending Sep 30, there are 226 Auctions currently scheduled...

So that just shows FR is delayed. They even say so in their FAQ.

 

[graphrix_IHB]

So that just shows FR is delayed. They even say so in their FAQ.

They are delayed by a couple of hours, not days. Sometimes they have the status updated before the trustee publishing company has updated their system for the day. Plus, FR misses a few foreclosures here and there, so it is likely some have been foreclosed on but for whatever reason they were never in the FR system.

I'm telling you, you can learn a lot from us only "credible on the intarwebs" armchair economists. That is what IR2 has done, and look at how well respected his ugly purple eating mug is.

 

[RobertLarsen_IHB]

So that just shows FR is delayed. They even say so in their FAQ.

They are delayed by a couple of hours, not days. Sometimes they have the status updated before the trustee publishing company has updated their system for the day. Plus, FR misses a few foreclosures here and there, so it is likely some have been foreclosed on but for whatever reason they were never in the FR system.

I'm telling you, you can learn a lot from us only "credible on the intarwebs" armchair economists. That is what IR2 has done, and look at how well respected his ugly purple eating mug is.

I am completely respecting everyone's opinion here. Even if I don't agree with someone I still like to hear their opinion and how they came to their conclusions. It's easier to debate that way. But, I'm just saying 28 out of 65 listings on the MLS don't show up on FR, that's not a small perrcentage. I'm surprised they don't use the MLS as one of their sources.

 

[RobertLarsen_IHB]

.

 

[graphrix_IHB]

I am completely respecting everyone's opinion here. Even if I don't agree with someone I still like to hear their opinion and how they came to their conclusions. It's easier to debate that way. But, I'm just saying 28 out of 65 listings on the MLS don't show up on FR, that's not a small perrcentage. I'm surprised they don't use the MLS as one of their sources.

They don't use the MLS because that data is a closely guarded secret by CAR/NAR, and no one is allowed to have it unless they are members of the MLS. Plus, it would hold them more accountable for their BS. I can't tell you how many listings I see that are still on the MLS, months after the bank has taken them back. Check out 33 Ridgeview 92603, or maybe it was 25, but pretty sure it was 33. Taken back by the bank in January, but it was on the MLS until about a month ago.

 

[usctrojanman29_IHB]

I am completely respecting everyone's opinion here. Even if I don't agree with someone I still like to hear their opinion and how they came to their conclusions. It's easier to debate that way. But, I'm just saying 28 out of 65 listings on the MLS don't show up on FR, that's not a small perrcentage. I'm surprised they don't use the MLS as one of their sources.

They don't use the MLS because that data is a closely guarded secret by CAR/NAR, and no one is allowed to have it unless they are members of the MLS. Plus, it would hold them more accountable for their BS. I can't tell you how many listings I see that are still on the MLS, months after the bank has taken them back. Check out 33 Ridgeview 92603, or maybe it was 25, but pretty sure it was 33. Taken back by the bank in January, but it was on the MLS until about a month ago.

Listing agents can be the laziest bastards out there. I had to e-mail one of the listing agents on a property one of my buyers bought asking him to update MLS with the SOLD status because my broker wants a copy of it for the file before he'll cut me the check for the commission.

 

[RobertLarsen_IHB]

I am completely respecting everyone's opinion here. Even if I don't agree with someone I still like to hear their opinion and how they came to their conclusions. It's easier to debate that way. But, I'm just saying 28 out of 65 listings on the MLS don't show up on FR, that's not a small perrcentage. I'm surprised they don't use the MLS as one of their sources.

They don't use the MLS because that data is a closely guarded secret by CAR/NAR, and no one is allowed to have it unless they are members of the MLS. Plus, it would hold them more accountable for their BS. I can't tell you how many listings I see that are still on the MLS, months after the bank has taken them back. Check out 33 Ridgeview 92603, or maybe it was 25, but pretty sure it was 33. Taken back by the bank in January, but it was on the MLS until about a month ago.

So bank took it back on 1/21/2009, took awhile, but listed it on 7/21/2009, opened escrow on 8/4/2009 and closed escrow on 8/26/2009. So you're saying the original listing agent kept it listed after the bank took it back? Yah, it was a lazy agent that didn't want to take it off the MLS manually, probably to keep getting calls on it, so he let it sit until it expired automatically on 3/12/2009.

 

[graphrix_IHB]

.

What's up with that? Do you want the data or not? If you're bored, I just saved you a cleaned up spreadsheet of all 468 REOs in 92656, including the historical records for you. I was hoping to welcome you to my world, and the data combing I deal with on a daily basis, but if you don't want it...

I'm going to hop in the shower (don't get excited pretty boy), and if you change your mind and still want it, I will pm you the info.

 

[RobertLarsen_IHB]

.

What's up with that? Do you want the data or not? If you're bored, I just saved you a cleaned up spreadsheet of all 468 REOs in 92656, including the historical records for you. I was hoping to welcome you to my world, and the data combing I deal with on a daily basis, but if you don't want it...

I'm going to hop in the shower (don't get excited pretty boy), and if you change your mind and still want it, I will pm you the info.

Whenever you want to send it over

P.S. I'm already living with the rents. Your 4900+ posts have nothing on me...

 

[graphrix_IHB]

Whenever you want to send it over

P.S. I'm already living with the rents. Your 4900+ posts have nothing on me...

You have a PM with a spreadsheet of all the REOs in 92656 going back to 8/1/08. It is tedious to go through it, but I am sure they taught you right click to copy and paste at SC to save you some time. Yes, many have sold to another buyer, but there are plenty that are just sitting there. Keep in mind that is probably not all the REOs that have happened, and many never make it to the market for whatever reason because FR doesn't have all the data.

BTW, I feel weird posting all this crap on a Friday night, but at least I have an excuse... my girl is hanging out at a friend's house. What is yours? It's a Friday night, you're 26, live in OC, went to SC, are a hot up and coming RE agent at well known coastal office, and judging by your crappy photos you are not as ugly as trojanman... why are you not out getting laid, instead of wasting your time debating us old fuddy duddies about shadow inventory? Yeah... you will learn a lot here, but dude... go have some fun. Where is tenmagnet when you need him to really bag on someone from his alma mater?

 

[graphrix_IHB]

Here is a great article from the WSJ I read about the FDIC, and how it has details of the shadow inventory.

The FDIC data underscore how the pain continues to spread beyond real-estate loans. In the second quarter, defaults on commercial and industrial loans more than doubled from a year earlier.

Credit-card losses climbed to a record 9.95%. Banks are sitting on $332 billion of loans more than 90 days past due and therefore at high risk of default. That is up by $41 billion at the end of March, and the highest level since the FDIC started collecting data 26 years ago.

Banks are holding more than $34 billion in repossessed real estate, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of the FDIC data.

Even as banks modify billions of dollars of mortgages, their pools of foreclosed properties keep growing, up 12% from the prior three months and 72% from a year before. They now stand at the highest level since 1993.

With the U.S. jobless rate nearing 10%, even borrowers once deemed low-risk are falling behind on home payments, said Sanjiv Das, head of Citigroup Inc.'s mortgage business. While mortgage defaults had been concentrated largely among subprime borrowers, "now there's a second phenomenon, with prime rising," Mr. Das said.

He said the rise in mortgage delinquencies among these less-risky borrowers is infecting a "substantially larger" pool of loans and is likely to cause more foreclosures. Mr. Das said he worries that the trend could torpedo recent gains in housing prices.

For those who do not know who Sanjiv Das is... well... you obviously haven't been that involved in this debacle, because this is the dude that called it long ago. He is one smart dude, who understands quantitative finance more than I may ever know. But one thing we have in common... we have been right.

 

[graphrix_IHB]

Damn... and now look what Padilla is posting... more proof us nutters are right...

Record 8,000 mortgages face foreclosure

There were 8,346 outstanding foreclosure auction notices in Orange County at the end of July, up 12% from June and more than double the year ago total, reports ForeclosureRadar.com.

I previously blogged the July total (it has been revised slightly), but I now have a chart showing the rise in active notices of trustee’s sale (NTS) since the credit crunch got serious in September ‘06 (click on it twice for larger image.). An NTS is filed on a home loan after a notice of default and it announces a property will face a foreclosure auction to pay off debt owed.

http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/files/2009/08/auction-notices-big-chart.jpg



Sean O’Toole, president of ForeclosureRadar, said not all auction notices result in foreclosure, though most do.

However, the data is skewed because of the Obama administration’s mortgage modification plan, he said. An unknown portion of the active NTS are likely people in the trial modification period, he said.

And the political environment has changed. Where regulators once pushed banks to deal promptly with bad loans, now they are focused on helping people avoid foreclosure — at least according to their public statements — O’Toole said.

In such a climate loan servicers and banks can take their time dealing with bad loans.

O’Toole also speculated lenders that retained servicing rights to loans may fear being sued by investors. As servicers foreclose on more home loans losses will mount, and investors will notice.

He said investor litigation could rival the tobacco trials and Congressional hearings, with lenders swearing they never thought the loans would default. Interesting analogy.

In any case, the NTS total fits with my previous post on the rise in loans at least 90 days late.

Newport Debtor, er payment skipper... you're not disproving this brain-thrust (spelled correctly this time for you) are you now when more and more and more and more and more and more factual data comes out proving you are just full of... well... Kool-Aid filled air. ROFL! Dopes!