"4 weeks and then all hell breaks loose"

[irvine_home_owner_IHB]

 

[awgee_IHB]

It takes awhile for banks to foreclose on a property and relist it back on the market, yes. But, it doesn't mean that there is a conspiracy to withhold properties from being listed on the market. How long have those properties been sitting vacant and not on the market? Less than 3 months after the bank took it back or more than 3 months? Have you checked to see if possibly investors purchased the property without having to be listed?

The most recent REO on my walk (the one that is listed for sale) was taken to auction in June, and on the market by mid July. I used to work in special assets, they can turn them around a lot quicker than you think. They just aren't. 9 months+ on most of them. Yes, I have the capacity to do a title search, no they haven't sold to investors.

BTW, the listed home is still out there 40+ days because it is listed $100-120K too high IMO. The other eight are in way worse condition and had an average of $650K out on them. The market (a price where they will move) is now about $250K-300K IMO.

I only know what I know, but I know the neighborhood I'm renting in very well.

I believe you. I was mainly talking about Riverside County (i.e. Lake Elsinore). Anytime I've spoken with the foreclosure departments at the banks, they say it takes 3-6 weeks just to have the property put into the database, where it is then assigned to an agent (and I'm sure that takes longer as well).

If you give me a particular zip code in Riverside County to use as an example, I can better answer your question as to when I think I would give up on the idea of there being a shadow inventory.

92532 and Aliso Viejo for Orange County

Foreclosure Radar shows 124 REOs for zip code 92532 and Redfin show 14 of those 124 as being currently listed. It never occured to me that some of the REOs not listed may be in escrow, but the reason it never occurred to me is that I watch the REOs and listings in a particular neighborhood like a hawk and there are very few REOs in escrow in the neighborhood that I watch and there are none which are currently showing on Foreclosure Radar which are not showing on Redfin and are currently in escrow. My guess is that the idea that many of the REOs showing on FR are in escrow is a fallacy. Robert, I do not have access to the listings in escrow in zip 92532, but if you would like to cross check the REO properties in 92532, I will email you the list from FR, and you can see for yourself and tell us how many REOs show up in FR that are in escrow and not on Redfin. Whaddya think? Just PM me your email address. Let's get to the bottom of this.

 

[awgee_IHB]

Robert - I will do Aliso Viejo later.

 

[IrvineRenter_IHB]

Same thing goes for that list by Graphrix. Where are the homes on the market or in process? You only tracked completed sales. I thought you were the braintrust, the way you are idolized here!

Your technique for making new friends needs a bit of refinement....

 

[no_vaseline_IHB]

I've been watching this pissing match for a few weeks now, and I gotta say it's stupid. REOs go into contract in days, you would never expect to see them in Redfin or other websites like theirs. There's thousands of these things in escrow.

So, my neighborhood is special or are you calling me a liar?

 

[awgee_IHB]

Same thing goes for that list by Graphrix. Where are the homes on the market or in process? You only tracked completed sales. I thought you were the braintrust, the way you are idolized here!

Your technique for making new friends needs a bit of refinement....

Funny, I thought he was a troll at first, because his statements are so outrageous and contrary to common sense. But, Graph seems to recognize him, and common sense is often wrong sense. It will be interesting to see how many REOs are in escrow, (that is the same as NewportSkipper's "in contract"?), and whether he is correct or just another sleazebag realtor trying to make commisions no matter what the consequences for his clients.

And Robert, please give me a zip code in Aliso Viejo. Foreclosure Radar is more complete with zip codes.

 

[graphrix_IHB]

AV = 92656

 

[awgee_IHB]

According to Foreclosure Radar, there are 73 bank owned properties, REOs, in the 92656 zip code. Of that 72 REOs, 3 are listed on Redfin.

USCTrojanMan - If you have any interest in knowing how much of the 69 is "shadow inventory", please pm me your email address and I will email you the FR REO list. You could cross check it with the "in contract" inventory and see how much of the 69 is "shadow inventory" if there is any, or how many went into contract within two days of becoming bank owned as NewportSkipper contends.

 

[caycifish_IHB]

I had this thread in mind when I just told Graph that he's like a flame-thrower, where Awgee is more like a samuri sword. One is all over the place and doesn't focus its damage, while the other will cut you quickly and exactly where intended.

 

[NewportSkipper_IHB]

Where to begin?

Graphrix, your chart shows 674 REOs sold in July. An average escrow would fall somewhere between 1-4 months. Lets call it 2.5 months. Would it not be reasonable to assume that there are 2.5 x 674 REOs somewhere with deals in the works, or do you think they appear out of thin air and go straight to closing?

Awgee, Aliso Viejo had 15 REOs sold in July. Would it not be reasonable to assume 2.5 x 15, or 37 REO homes are in escrow as well?

No-Vaseline, I wouldn't say you were a liar, but I would say you are confused. If you believe Graphrix, there are 8,000 REO unaccounted for. How many streets are there in Orange County? Your tale of over 1 per street would seem to be a stretch. If you had said they had NODs or NTSs, I might go along with it, but foreclosed but not listed isn't cutting it for me. I also think you're confused about the value of the home in question. Two hundred fifty thousand will barely get you 1,200 in Anaheim or Santa Ana, so unless that's where you're talking about, I'd say you are exagerrating.

Irvinerenter, based upon seeing the rude treatment doled out to Geotpf and Robert, making friends was the last thing on my mind. My friends don't require that I conform to their thinking or risk swords and flamethrowers. I'm not big on groupthink.

And lastly, the search feature here is worthless. Getting back dozens of threads with dozens of pages each is not what I would call useful. Perhaps it can be refined.

Helmet on.

 

[awgee_IHB]

Awgee, Aliso Viejo had 15 REOs sold in July. Would it not be reasonable to assume 2.5 x 15, or 37 REO homes are in escrow as well?

Reasonable? Assume? Why, when we can access the actual facts. IrvineRealtor has been kind enough to email me with the homes in escrow including the REOs in escrow and when I have the time to figure out what I am looking at, we will have the facts and will not have to assume anything.

According to you, "REOs go into contract in days, you would never expect to see them in Redfin or other websites like theirs. There’s thousands of these things in escrow."

We shall see.

 

[no_vaseline_IHB]

No-Vaseline, I wouldn't say you were a liar, but I would say you are confused.

About what am I confused?

The fact there are 9 REO's on my walk, and exactly one is for sale? Or the fact I hurt my foot and can't do my excersise program right now?

Stop trolling.

 

[awgee_IHB]

.

 

[NewportSkipper_IHB]

We needn't guess about your neighborhood either. Street names will do.

 

[NewportSkipper_IHB]

I, for one, can't wait to see what you get, Awgee. Hopefully it will have all the stages covered and not just pending.

 

[NewportSkipper_IHB]

And one final thing: you say there are 73 in Aliso Viejo and I showed that 15 sold in July. That would indicate a 4-5 month supply without finding any in the sales pipeline. If half are found, then you would be missing a 2 month supply.

 

[awgee_IHB]

I, for one, can't wait to see what you get, Awgee. Hopefully it will have all the stages covered and not just pending.

I am not so familiar with the lingo. What are the stages? What should be covered?

 

[NewportSkipper_IHB]

Active, backup offers accepted, hold, pending sale and closed in August.

 

[awgee_IHB]

Active, backup offers accepted, hold, pending sale and closed in August.

No promises, but I think I can show accurately if REOs are going to contract quickly or if there is indeed many REOs neither in contract or listed and just being held by the bank for whatever reason.

 

[NewportSkipper_IHB]

Even if you found none under contract, you would still have a 4-5 month supply. Is that many? Is that more than it's been in the past couple of years? Are they going to hit the street in the same week? Could the market absorb more than 15 a month? Will that necessarily change pricing? Maybe I'm alone on this, but I don't see 70 something units over a few month span as any different than what we have now.