[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1249296504][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1249294264]Far Far Away from the pristine feifdom of Irvine, all hell is breaking loose. Well, its not that far but Fresno/Tulare county might as well be on the darkside of the Moon if you catch my drift.
<a href="http://fresnobeehive.com/news/2009/07/tsunami_coming.html">http://fresnobeehive.com/news/2009/07/tsunami_coming.html</a>
<blockquote>Tsunami coming?
When real estate broker Terance Frazier is asked about the projected next wave of foreclosures, he points to a chart compiled by his intern, Trent Souza.
Souza matched up scheduled auction dates at the Fresno County courthouse with government-imposed moratoriums and found, not surprisingly, that banks didn't repossess as many homes during those periods.
Then, he tallied up the number of new default notices and discovered that, barring more government intervention, the number of foreclosures could more than double between September, when the last moratorium expires, and year's end.
Frazier, who buys and resells foreclosures, said bank-owned properties have been piling up as lenders, adhering to moratoriums, postponed the auctions. Those could start hitting the marketplace in early 2010, increasing supply and possibly keeping prices down.
Frazier says the moratoriums delayed the recovery of the housing market and also fuzzy predictions. "We don't know what the government will do," he said. "Until that inventory hits the market, we won't recover."
It remains to be seen if real estate agents will be able to sell the foreclosures as quickly as they are now. Lower-priced foreclosures get multiple offers and many realty agents want more to sell.
But, experts predict more moderate and higher-end families to lose their houses during this recession, which is the worst in decades. <strong>At least 1 of every 10 home loans in Fresno County was at least 90 days delinquent in June, according to market tracker First American CoreLogic.</strong>
Banks say they are modifying more loans and doing more short sales, where they negotiate negotiate a sale with the owner before it goes to foreclosure.
But Frazier thinks lenders should reappraise properties, issue a new loan at a reduced interest rate for the true value and then either issue a no-interest mortgage for the remainder of the old loan, or arrange to be paid a cut of any profit from the sale of the house.
That would cut payments enough to keep the homeowner from defaulting and put money into their pockets - money that could be used to buy cars, appliances, eat in restaurants and otherwise stimulate the economy.
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Two full years into the correction, and 1 -10 are 90 days +. Lookout below!</blockquote>
I'm thinking that Orange County and Irvine prices have most held up fairly well is because the unemployment rate is significantly lower than that of other parts of California, such as the IE, Fresneck and Stockton. If the OC and Irvine reach the "official" mid-teen unemployment rate that those areas are experiencing they will begin to experience further price declines....at this point it is all about employment.</blockquote>
It's also possible that Irvine and other "prime" areas will fall less than, say, the IE, simply because there's a flight to quality. In today's blog post, there was talk about Florida, where house have fallen a lot-but low end condos are on the way to being nearly worthless. Same type of thing. I think that will apply everywhere as well-condos will (and have) fall further than houses, dollar for dollar, since houses are the superior product. So you might get a situation where a small condo was half the price of a larger house in particular area at the peak, but after the fall, the house will be three times to price. We are seeing similar differences in prices between houses in Irvine vs. the IE-the IE has fallen further faster.
