"4 weeks and then all hell breaks loose"

[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252394147][quote author="bltserv" date=1252379045][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252377029][quote author="bltserv" date=1252375111]People tend to really want to believe in the industry they have chosen as a profession. They become passionate in their belief system

that a positive attitude about market conditions is necessary. Sadly the Real Estate and Mortgage Business in Orange County is going through

a once in a hundred year market cycle. Its difficult to sell a product that will be worth less in a few months and may not appreciate for

many years to come. (Kind of like selling electronics. Price is always falling).



The trick is to unhook your emotion in the transaction/sales process. We got a couple emotional guys here in Skippy and Robert.

Come on over to the "Dark Side". The force of this board is not with you when you blow smoke that "all is well and getting better" in this current market cycle.</blockquote>


Sorry, but that's just a cop-out to completely disregard our posts. There is plenty of supporting data, which we continue to post.



When it comes down to, only time will tell. The next 6 months will definitely tell if we hit the bottom or are a long ways away.</blockquote>


I had this same discussion with my Real Estate Agent about 6 months ago. She spent an hour showing me her selected data that supported her

opinions. Since then she has had 3 Arizona properties go to foreclosure that were part of her investment portfolio. We still keep in touch.

These days she is doing modifications. But still has her eye open for the property I will eventually purchase when my judgement

tells me we really have reached some type of bottom to these falling prices.



I am not disregarding the "cherry picked" data points you present. I am telling you to go do the "Cheerleader" act to somebody that will buy the BS.

IMO. The Theatre is on fire and you want to sell more tickets. I say NO THANKS. I will watch it burn from the outside safely.

Your opinion is tainted because you want/need a commission check. If your really good you can sell with out the "Cheerleader Act" bytheway.



A real sales guy can sell ice to eskimo`s.</blockquote>


Yes.. our data points are "cherry picked," but yours are undeniable, rock solid facts?



You my friend are ignorant, and that's not name calling because your statements are clearly showing that you have no time for another opinion that does not coincide with your own. So go ahead and ignorantly label facts as "cheerleading." I'll continue to support my opinion with facts and you can continue covering your ears and yelling blah blah blah, to anything that you don't agree with. Believe it or not, you might not know everything.</blockquote>


With more years in professional sales than you have been on this earth. I think my judgement and wisdom exceed yours Robert.

"Anecdotal Evidence" shows the desperate shape of this market. Your soothsaying will accomplish nothing for your customers or your ability to earn commisions.

You remind me of those high pressure timeshare guys. Just as you walk away they start insulting you because they cant close the sale.

You may be better off flipping burgers my friend. And you have how many closed Real Estate sales again ?
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1252406480][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252394147][quote author="bltserv" date=1252379045][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252377029][quote author="bltserv" date=1252375111]People tend to really want to believe in the industry they have chosen as a profession. They become passionate in their belief system

that a positive attitude about market conditions is necessary. Sadly the Real Estate and Mortgage Business in Orange County is going through

a once in a hundred year market cycle. Its difficult to sell a product that will be worth less in a few months and may not appreciate for

many years to come. (Kind of like selling electronics. Price is always falling).



The trick is to unhook your emotion in the transaction/sales process. We got a couple emotional guys here in Skippy and Robert.

Come on over to the "Dark Side". The force of this board is not with you when you blow smoke that "all is well and getting better" in this current market cycle.</blockquote>


Sorry, but that's just a cop-out to completely disregard our posts. There is plenty of supporting data, which we continue to post.



When it comes down to, only time will tell. The next 6 months will definitely tell if we hit the bottom or are a long ways away.</blockquote>


I had this same discussion with my Real Estate Agent about 6 months ago. She spent an hour showing me her selected data that supported her

opinions. Since then she has had 3 Arizona properties go to foreclosure that were part of her investment portfolio. We still keep in touch.

These days she is doing modifications. But still has her eye open for the property I will eventually purchase when my judgement

tells me we really have reached some type of bottom to these falling prices.



I am not disregarding the "cherry picked" data points you present. I am telling you to go do the "Cheerleader" act to somebody that will buy the BS.

IMO. The Theatre is on fire and you want to sell more tickets. I say NO THANKS. I will watch it burn from the outside safely.

Your opinion is tainted because you want/need a commission check. If your really good you can sell with out the "Cheerleader Act" bytheway.



A real sales guy can sell ice to eskimo`s.</blockquote>


Yes.. our data points are "cherry picked," but yours are undeniable, rock solid facts?



You my friend are ignorant, and that's not name calling because your statements are clearly showing that you have no time for another opinion that does not coincide with your own. So go ahead and ignorantly label facts as "cheerleading." I'll continue to support my opinion with facts and you can continue covering your ears and yelling blah blah blah, to anything that you don't agree with. Believe it or not, you might not know everything.</blockquote>


With more years in professional sales than you have been on this earth. I think my judgement and wisdom exceed yours Robert.

"Anecdotal Evidence" shows the desperate shape of this market. Your soothsaying will accomplish nothing for your customers or your ability to earn commisions.

You remind me of those high pressure timeshare guys. Just as you walk away they start insulting you because they cant close the sale.

You may be better off flipping burgers my friend. And you have how many closed Real Estate sales again ?</blockquote>


Yeeeesss... and I'M the one that starts insulting... classy my friend, real classy.



Just more blind and ignorant statements. Obvious your many many years have taught you nothing... You can be 100 years old, but your inability to even acknowledge facts from opposing viewpoints shows how much you truly lack in judgement and wisdom.



I won't get into what you remind me of, but it's just sad to see a man of your age act the way that you do.



What kind of professional sales?
 
Attempting to speak as the voice of reason (because, again, I have worked Special Assets and no one else here has). Sooner or later, they will come up with a streamlined program on how they move properties through to the foreclosure process. This will likely be after a big bank finally cracks and they decide they need to handle the phantom inventory, which begets another wave of phantom inventory as the next leg down wastes a bunch of folks.



Because of political pressure, they will likely have to figure out how to ?make sure? the homeowner isn?t being abused (remember, ?extend and pretend? will eventually end). This process will look something like this:



1. How much equity is in the property? If it?s negative, can the borrower make it positive?

2. Can the borrower re-qualify on actual income?



If the answer to both questions isn?t ?yes? and ?yes? then they are going to go straight to foreclosure. And in 90 days, not 18 months or two years or whatever.



The problem with ?extend and pretend? if the borrower has equity is the bank opens themselves up to liability for sucking the equity out of the borrower. I realize that they did that when they didn?t bother to do step #2 in the first place, but that was then and this is now.
 
[quote author="Stuff It" date=1252412060]yawn....

(felt that I had to add something to this debate after drinking a bottle of wine)</blockquote>


Cheers to that! Even tho I know I'm 50% of why this has become boring... I have a glass of wine in hand right now
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252393504][quote author="graphrix" date=1252391577][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252383046]"All that says is you have to scrub the data carefully..."



It was your data that needed scrubbing and it was up to you to do it. That's not Robert being lazy.</blockquote>


Wrong! It was up to Robert to go through my data of 188 properties, or go through the data of 70 some properties that awgee gave him. He took the easy route, and he didn't want to scrub the data, therefore he is lazy. If Robert or you would like for me to scrub the data for you, I would be happy to do that. Just let me know where to send the bill, er... for people in the RE industry I only take credit cards now, and there will be an up front retainer fee of 50% of the estimated hourly rate. Let me know if you are interested in my services... until then, Robert can scrub the data himself when he asks for it.</blockquote>




WRONG!



Awgee was the original person I was talking to about getting the list, so I used his list. I looked at your list and it was clearly a bad list, with more than 50% of the properties inaccurately listed as REOs. Talk about lazy, your list was half-assed. You might as well have just sent me a list of every address in 92656...



NewportSkipper and I clearly showed that there are far less REOs unlisted than what was being stated.</blockquote>


1. You asked me for the list first, but you deleted it before I responded. Keep up the lies Robert, and I will call you on it every time.



2. That is the way that the list comes from Foreclosure Radar, if I could edit it to fit your needs I would. You are just too lazy to scrub the data yourself. Just because they didn't teach you how to copy and paste at USC, doesn't mean that you get a free pass, it just means you are lazy and will use inferior data. You want me to do it? Fine, it will take two-three hours at $250 a hour. I accept credit cards only from people in the RE industry. Or a cashiers check.



3. You and Skippy didn't show us squat. All you showed us was how many excuses you can use to exclude data to make a point fit your Kool-Aid filled agenda.



I was starting to like you Robert, but after this last post... well... you just proved you are 25 year old punk ass brat from USC, who doesn't know squat about RE or how to source proper data. You still have never done a single RE transaction ever... team... you mean bitch ass, paper shuffling, gopher boy for an agent who actually does business... yeah, that doesn't count.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1252414248][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252393504][quote author="graphrix" date=1252391577][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252383046]"All that says is you have to scrub the data carefully..."



It was your data that needed scrubbing and it was up to you to do it. That's not Robert being lazy.</blockquote>


Wrong! It was up to Robert to go through my data of 188 properties, or go through the data of 70 some properties that awgee gave him. He took the easy route, and he didn't want to scrub the data, therefore he is lazy. If Robert or you would like for me to scrub the data for you, I would be happy to do that. Just let me know where to send the bill, er... for people in the RE industry I only take credit cards now, and there will be an up front retainer fee of 50% of the estimated hourly rate. Let me know if you are interested in my services... until then, Robert can scrub the data himself when he asks for it.</blockquote>




WRONG!



Awgee was the original person I was talking to about getting the list, so I used his list. I looked at your list and it was clearly a bad list, with more than 50% of the properties inaccurately listed as REOs. Talk about lazy, your list was half-assed. You might as well have just sent me a list of every address in 92656...



NewportSkipper and I clearly showed that there are far less REOs unlisted than what was being stated.</blockquote>


1. You asked me for the list first, but you deleted it before I responded. Keep up the lies Robert, and I will call you on it every time.



2. That is the way that the list comes from Foreclosure Radar, if I could edit it to fit your needs I would. You are just too lazy to scrub the data yourself. Just because they didn't teach you how to copy and paste at USC, doesn't mean that you get a free pass, it just means you are lazy and will use inferior data. You want me to do it? Fine, it will take two-three hours at $250 a hour. I accept credit cards only from people in the RE industry. Or a cashiers check.



3. You and Skippy didn't show us squat. All you showed us was how many excuses you can use to exclude data to make a point fit your Kool-Aid filled agenda.



I was starting to like you Robert, but after this last post... well... you just proved you are 25 year old punk ass brat from USC, who doesn't know squat about RE or how to source proper data. You still have never done a single RE transaction ever... team... you mean bitch ass, paper shuffling, gopher boy for an agent who actually does business... yeah, that doesn't count.</blockquote>


Haha... pssyyyyyycho
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252414370]Haha... pssyyyyyycho</blockquote>


Um... you're the one who has keep going and deleting and editing posts to not look like he is nuts. I'm not the first one to call you out on this. That is your only response because you know it is true.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1251440583][quote author="RobertLarsen" date=1251436879][quote author="awgee" date=1251433221][quote author="RobertLarsen" date=1251417501][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1251416970][quote author="RobertLarsen" date=1251416617]



It takes awhile for banks to foreclose on a property and relist it back on the market, yes. But, it doesn't mean that there is a conspiracy to withhold properties from being listed on the market. How long have those properties been sitting vacant and not on the market? Less than 3 months after the bank took it back or more than 3 months? Have you checked to see if possibly investors purchased the property without having to be listed? </blockquote>


The most recent REO on my walk (the one that is listed for sale) was taken to auction in June, and on the market by mid July. I used to work in special assets, they can turn them around a lot quicker than you think. They just aren't. 9 months+ on most of them. Yes, I have the capacity to do a title search, no they haven't sold to investors.



BTW, the listed home is still out there 40+ days because it is listed $100-120K too high IMO. The other eight are in way worse condition and had an average of $650K out on them. The market (a price where they will move) is now about $250K-300K IMO.



I only know what I know, but I know the neighborhood I'm renting in very well.</blockquote>


I believe you. I was mainly talking about Riverside County (i.e. Lake Elsinore). Anytime I've spoken with the foreclosure departments at the banks, they say it takes 3-6 weeks just to have the property put into the database, where it is then assigned to an agent (and I'm sure that takes longer as well).</blockquote>


If you give me a particular zip code in Riverside County to use as an example, I can better answer your question as to when I think I would give up on the idea of there being a shadow inventory.</blockquote>


92532 and Aliso Viejo for Orange County</blockquote>


Foreclosure Radar shows 124 REOs for zip code 92532 and Redfin show 14 of those 124 as being currently listed. It never occured to me that some of the REOs not listed may be in escrow, but the reason it never occurred to me is that I watch the REOs and listings in a particular neighborhood like a hawk and there are very few REOs in escrow in the neighborhood that I watch and there are none which are currently showing on Foreclosure Radar which are not showing on Redfin and are currently in escrow. My guess is that the idea that many of the REOs showing on FR are in escrow is a fallacy. Robert, I do not have access to the listings in escrow in zip 92532, but if you would like to cross check the REO properties in 92532, I will email you the list from FR, and you can see for yourself and tell us how many REOs show up in FR that are in escrow and not on Redfin. Whaddya think? Just PM me your email address. Let's get to the bottom of this.</blockquote>


Once again graphy, you're wrong... I wasn't lazy, unlike you, and I went back and found the original topic starter...



And you continue to try to use credentials, right after you said I always do.. lol. Multiple personalities or what? Well will one of your personalities post something about your credentials, outside IHB.



Where did I not properly source my data?

Did newportskipper and I not manage to cross off over half your list of REOs? Is checking title not a good enough source for you? Please tell me more how I made up excuses.



Keep trying to get personal, it just further shows the weakness in your argument. Let me know when you're confident enough to answer my personal questions...
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1252414248]

You want me to do it? Fine, it will take two-three hours at $250 a hour. I accept credit cards only from people in the RE industry. Or a cashiers check.

</blockquote>


We heard your joke the first time...
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252415514][quote author="graphrix" date=1252414248]

You want me to do it? Fine, it will take two-three hours at $250 a hour. I accept credit cards only from people in the RE industry. Or a cashiers check.

</blockquote>


We heard your joke the first time...</blockquote>


It wasn't a joke.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1252414535]Am I the only who feels like RoLar and Skip know each other? Maybe he's Skip's son? Anyways... back to the flames.</blockquote>


You weren't the only one. Eerily similar. But according to their IP addresses, they are not logging in from the same location so that probably rules out a familial connection.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1252415584][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252415514][quote author="graphrix" date=1252414248]

You want me to do it? Fine, it will take two-three hours at $250 a hour. I accept credit cards only from people in the RE industry. Or a cashiers check.

</blockquote>


We heard your joke the first time...</blockquote>


It wasn't a joke.</blockquote>


That's it? You call me a liar and I prove you wrong again, properly quoted I might add, and you say nothing?
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1252415613][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1252414535]Am I the only who feels like RoLar and Skip know each other? Maybe he's Skip's son? Anyways... back to the flames.</blockquote>


You weren't the only one. Eerily similar. But according to their IP addresses, they are not logging in from the same location so that probably rules out a familial connection.</blockquote>


I assure you that we do not know eachother.



Two people on this entire forum that disagree with the consensus. Your first thought is that they are in on it together? How about the one-sided opinion that I keep talking about?
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252415882][quote author="Nude" date=1252415613][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1252414535]Am I the only who feels like RoLar and Skip know each other? Maybe he's Skip's son? Anyways... back to the flames.</blockquote>


You weren't the only one. Eerily similar. But according to their IP addresses, they are not logging in from the same location so that probably rules out a familial connection.</blockquote>


I assure you that we do not know eachother.



Two people on this entire forum that disagree with the consensus. Your first thought is that they are in on it together? How about the one-sided opinion that I keep talking about?</blockquote>


Actually it was the patterns of speech, the turn of a phrase, that caused me to wonder. But it's nice to know that you two have no connection whatsoever.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252415271]Once again graphy, you're wrong... I wasn't lazy, unlike you, and I went back and found the original topic starter...



And you continue to try to use credentials, right after you said I always do.. lol. Multiple personalities or what? Well will one of your personalities post something about your credentials, outside IHB.



Where did I not properly source my data?

Did newportskipper and I not manage to cross off over half your list of REOs? Is checking title not a good enough source for you? Please tell me more how I made up excuses.



Keep trying to get personal, it just further shows the weakness in your argument. Let me know when you're confident enough to answer my personal questions...</blockquote>


First, here is where you asked me specifically for the data, but then you deleted it...



[quote author="graphrix" date=1251552882][quote author="RobertLarsen" date=1251550186].</blockquote>


What's up with that? Do you want the data or not? If you're bored, I just saved you a cleaned up spreadsheet of all 468 REOs in 92656, including the historical records for you. I was hoping to welcome you to my world, and the data combing I deal with on a daily basis, but if you don't want it...



I'm going to hop in the shower (don't get excited pretty boy), and if you change your mind and still want it, I will pm you the info.</blockquote>


Second, you and skippy didn't even cross off half of the REOs on my list, and you continued to exclude the ones that had been foreclosed on but your data source is slow and states that they aren't. You continue to exclude data, admit it, you want to exclude it. I keep proving it is there. Checking title from a title company is delayed, I have sources that are updated daily. Check title all you want, just because the bank doesn't come up as the owner on title doesn't mean that it isn't the owner. You do know there is a delay from when the foreclosure happens at the auction, and when the trustees deed actually gets recorded, right?



Lastly, you don't have any credentials, so don't worry about it.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252415741] You call me a liar </blockquote>


Maybe he did, but it wasn't necessary. Your own words were proof enough.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1252414248][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252393504][quote author="graphrix" date=1252391577][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252383046]"All that says is you have to scrub the data carefully..."



It was your data that needed scrubbing and it was up to you to do it. That's not Robert being lazy.</blockquote>


Wrong! It was up to Robert to go through my data of 188 properties, or go through the data of 70 some properties that awgee gave him. He took the easy route, and he didn't want to scrub the data, therefore he is lazy. If Robert or you would like for me to scrub the data for you, I would be happy to do that. Just let me know where to send the bill, er... for people in the RE industry I only take credit cards now, and there will be an up front retainer fee of 50% of the estimated hourly rate. Let me know if you are interested in my services... until then, Robert can scrub the data himself when he asks for it.</blockquote>




WRONG!



Awgee was the original person I was talking to about getting the list, so I used his list. I looked at your list and it was clearly a bad list, with more than 50% of the properties inaccurately listed as REOs. Talk about lazy, your list was half-assed. You might as well have just sent me a list of every address in 92656...



NewportSkipper and I clearly showed that there are far less REOs unlisted than what was being stated.</blockquote>


1. You asked me for the list first, but you deleted it before I responded. Keep up the lies Robert, and I will call you on it every time.



2. That is the way that the list comes from Foreclosure Radar, if I could edit it to fit your needs I would. You are just too lazy to scrub the data yourself. Just because they didn't teach you how to copy and paste at USC, doesn't mean that you get a free pass, it just means you are lazy and will use inferior data. You want me to do it? Fine, it will take two-three hours at $250 a hour. I accept credit cards only from people in the RE industry. Or a cashiers check.



3. You and Skippy didn't show us squat. All you showed us was how many excuses you can use to exclude data to make a point fit your Kool-Aid filled agenda.



I was starting to like you Robert, but after this last post... well... you just proved you are 25 year old punk ass brat from USC, who doesn't know squat about RE or how to source proper data. You still have never done a single RE transaction ever... team... you mean bitch ass, paper shuffling, gopher boy for an agent who actually does business... yeah, that doesn't count.</blockquote>


Oh...no...you...didn't. I was trying to show you the respect that you think you deserve, but the gloves are OFF. Sometimes an olive branch comes in the form of silence and that, my friend, is why I didn't take you down earlier. We have come full circle to where I entered this debate, which was your laughable Redfin "analysis". Your analysis, loosely: Foreclosure Radar - closed sales = shadow inventory on banks books. Dear god, that is the lamest analysis ever. Never occurred to you to take a peek at the sales pipleline, huh? You can hem and haw and make up bullshit about how the MTD foreclosures wash that, but you are 100% wrong. And the data that YOU not only posted, but highlighted in red, was absolute garbage. It came from YOU and YOU alone, not Robert. You have no integrity, none.
 
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