"4 weeks and then all hell breaks loose"

[quote author="awgee" date=1252378029]It is a leap of faith to believe anything other than what has proven to be true.</blockquote>


What has proven to be true is stabilization. We're not discussing Perris.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252377029][quote author="bltserv" date=1252375111]People tend to really want to believe in the industry they have chosen as a profession. They become passionate in their belief system

that a positive attitude about market conditions is necessary. Sadly the Real Estate and Mortgage Business in Orange County is going through

a once in a hundred year market cycle. Its difficult to sell a product that will be worth less in a few months and may not appreciate for

many years to come. (Kind of like selling electronics. Price is always falling).



The trick is to unhook your emotion in the transaction/sales process. We got a couple emotional guys here in Skippy and Robert.

Come on over to the "Dark Side". The force of this board is not with you when you blow smoke that "all is well and getting better" in this current market cycle.</blockquote>


Sorry, but that's just a cop-out to completely disregard our posts. There is plenty of supporting data, which we continue to post.



When it comes down to, only time will tell. The next 6 months will definitely tell if we hit the bottom or are a long ways away.</blockquote>


I had this same discussion with my Real Estate Agent about 6 months ago. She spent an hour showing me her selected data that supported her

opinions. Since then she has had 3 Arizona properties go to foreclosure that were part of her investment portfolio. We still keep in touch.

These days she is doing modifications. But still has her eye open for the property I will eventually purchase when my judgement

tells me we really have reached some type of bottom to these falling prices.



I am not disregarding the "cherry picked" data points you present. I am telling you to go do the "Cheerleader" act to somebody that will buy the BS.

IMO. The Theatre is on fire and you want to sell more tickets. I say NO THANKS. I will watch it burn from the outside safely.

Your opinion is tainted because you want/need a commission check. If your really good you can sell with out the "Cheerleader Act" bytheway.



A real sales guy can sell ice to eskimo`s.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252375697]I am not going to explore your posting history, especially in light of the fact that I understand you haven't written much lately.</blockquote>
Of course you aren't. That would require work, research, effort, and the ability post links. It was too much to ask of you, I know. I'll keep your handicaps in mind from now on.

<blockquote>However, I will run with this:



"The consensus of people who look at the data objectively is that prices aren?t done dropping and the shadow inventory is going to tank everyone?s equity when it hits the market. You are free to interpret the data as you see fit, but unless your data, sources, and analysis are rock solid and irrefutable, you are going to be challenged."



The data support that prices, with a few exceptions, are done dropping. Whether they resume dropping based upon shadow inventory is an entirely different matter. I know it's nuanced, but it is a rock solid and irrefutable fact at this moment in time.</blockquote>


Which data? Where? Links, sources, cites, graphs? Anything other than your assertion? I saw <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/5788/P50/#124806">this:</a>



<blockquote>...



Graphrix, your chart shows 674 REOs sold in July. An average escrow would fall somewhere between 1-4 months. Lets call it 2.5 months. Would it not be reasonable to assume that there are 2.5 x 674 REOs somewhere with deals in the works, or do you think they appear out of thin air and go straight to closing?



Awgee, Aliso Viejo had 15 REOs sold in July. Would it not be reasonable to assume 2.5 x 15, or 37 REO homes are in escrow as well?



No-Vaseline, I wouldn?t say you were a liar, but I would say you are confused. If you believe Graphrix, there are 8,000 REO unaccounted for. How many streets are there in Orange County? Your tale of over 1 per street would seem to be a stretch. If you had said they had NODs or NTSs, I might go along with it, but foreclosed but not listed isn?t cutting it for me. I also think you?re confused about the value of the home in question. Two hundred fifty thousand will barely get you 1,200 in Anaheim or Santa Ana, so unless that?s where you?re talking about, I?d say you are exagerrating.



...

</blockquote>


But there aren't any facts in there, just supposition that isn't supported by any cite, source, link or attribution. Hardly rock solid and irrefutable. I went through all your posts and you refused to provide any of the sources for your "facts" (not even a screen shot), which means that you haven't proven anything, merely asserted some statement to bootstrap your own point of view. That kind of argument will get you nowhere here, even if you are correct in your assertions, because no one on the internet is just going to take your word for it.



<blockquote>And my name isn't Dan and I don't appreciate the snide comments and cute name you think you came up with. You should be ashamed of your conduct.</blockquote>


I was going to call you Malibu Barbie but Mattel has some vicious lawyers. You jumped into this thread on the attack, involving yourself in a debate that had sprung up between graphrix and RL, with the apparent intent of taking cracker cakes down a notch. You were admonished by two different mods on multiple occasions, you even acknowledged you were being an ass, and still... you persisted in the name calling, the personal attacks, and the derogatory language. Until you settle down and act like you deserve the respect you are demanding, I will call you whatever I deem appropriate, Skipper Dan.
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1252379045][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252377029][quote author="bltserv" date=1252375111]People tend to really want to believe in the industry they have chosen as a profession. They become passionate in their belief system

that a positive attitude about market conditions is necessary. Sadly the Real Estate and Mortgage Business in Orange County is going through

a once in a hundred year market cycle. Its difficult to sell a product that will be worth less in a few months and may not appreciate for

many years to come. (Kind of like selling electronics. Price is always falling).



The trick is to unhook your emotion in the transaction/sales process. We got a couple emotional guys here in Skippy and Robert.

Come on over to the "Dark Side". The force of this board is not with you when you blow smoke that "all is well and getting better" in this current market cycle.</blockquote>


Sorry, but that's just a cop-out to completely disregard our posts. There is plenty of supporting data, which we continue to post.



When it comes down to, only time will tell. The next 6 months will definitely tell if we hit the bottom or are a long ways away.</blockquote>


I had this same discussion with my Real Estate Agent about 6 months ago. She spent an hour showing me her selected data that supported her

opinions. Since then she has had 3 Arizona properties go to foreclosure that were part of her investment portfolio. We still keep in touch.

These days she is doing modifications. But still has her eye open for the property I will eventually purchase when my judgement

tells me we really have reached some type of bottom to these falling prices.



I am not disregarding the "cherry picked" data points you present. I am telling you to go do the "Cheerleader" act to somebody that will buy the BS.

IMO. The Theatre is on fire and you want to sell more tickets. I say NO THANKS. I will watch it burn from the outside safely.

Your opinion is tainted because you want/need a commission check. If your really good you can sell with out the "Cheerleader Act" bytheway.



A real sales guy can sell ice to eskimo`s.</blockquote>


Totally uncalled-for.
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1252379350][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252375697]I am not going to explore your posting history, especially in light of the fact that I understand you haven't written much lately.</blockquote>
Of course you aren't. That would require work, research, effort, and the ability post links. It was too much to ask of you, I know. I'll keep your handicaps in mind from now on.

<blockquote>However, I will run with this:



"The consensus of people who look at the data objectively is that prices aren?t done dropping and the shadow inventory is going to tank everyone?s equity when it hits the market. You are free to interpret the data as you see fit, but unless your data, sources, and analysis are rock solid and irrefutable, you are going to be challenged."



The data support that prices, with a few exceptions, are done dropping. Whether they resume dropping based upon shadow inventory is an entirely different matter. I know it's nuanced, but it is a rock solid and irrefutable fact at this moment in time.</blockquote>


Which data? Where? Links, sources, cites, graphs? Anything other than your assertion? I saw <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/5788/P50/#124806">this:</a>



<blockquote>...



Graphrix, your chart shows 674 REOs sold in July. An average escrow would fall somewhere between 1-4 months. Lets call it 2.5 months. Would it not be reasonable to assume that there are 2.5 x 674 REOs somewhere with deals in the works, or do you think they appear out of thin air and go straight to closing?



Awgee, Aliso Viejo had 15 REOs sold in July. Would it not be reasonable to assume 2.5 x 15, or 37 REO homes are in escrow as well?



No-Vaseline, I wouldn?t say you were a liar, but I would say you are confused. If you believe Graphrix, there are 8,000 REO unaccounted for. How many streets are there in Orange County? Your tale of over 1 per street would seem to be a stretch. If you had said they had NODs or NTSs, I might go along with it, but foreclosed but not listed isn?t cutting it for me. I also think you?re confused about the value of the home in question. Two hundred fifty thousand will barely get you 1,200 in Anaheim or Santa Ana, so unless that?s where you?re talking about, I?d say you are exagerrating.



...

</blockquote>


But there aren't any facts in there, just supposition that isn't supported by any cite, source, link or attribution. Hardly rock solid and irrefutable. I went through all your posts and you refused to provide any of the sources for your "facts" (not even a screen shot), which means that you haven't proven anything, merely asserted some statement to bootstrap your own point of view. That kind of argument will get you nowhere here, even if you are correct in your assertions, because no one on the internet is just going to take your word for it.



<blockquote>And my name isn't Dan and I don't appreciate the snide comments and cute name you think you came up with. You should be ashamed of your conduct.</blockquote>


I was going to call you Malibu Barbie but Mattel has some vicious lawyers. You jumped into this thread on the attack, involving yourself in a debate that had sprung up between graphrix and RL, with the apparent intent of taking cracker cakes down a notch. You were admonished by two different mods on multiple occasions, you even acknowledged you were being an ass, and still... you persisted in the name calling, the personal attacks, and the derogatory language. Until you settle down and act like you deserve the respect you are demanding, I will call you whatever I deem appropriate, Skipper Dan.</blockquote>


Nice try, but there are dozens and dozens of rock solid, irrefutable facts in these threads provided by me. I don't see anything other than personal attacks from you, which is apparently why you slithered away at some point (alienate people much?). I anxiously await that happening again soon. If you open your eyes, you will also see that I provided the information that there are many REOs on MLS, which Rob validated were not counted in the 8,000. But nooooo, that is too much for you to digest.
 
"you persisted in the name calling"



Put up or shut up.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252379989]

Nice try, but there are dozens and dozens of rock solid, irrefutable facts in these threads provided by me. I don't see anything other than personal attacks from you, which is apparently why you slithered away at some point. I anxiously await that happening again soon. If you open your eyes, you will also see that I provided the information that there are many REOs on MLS, which Rob validated and were not counted in the 8,000. But nooooo, that is too much for you to digest.</blockquote>


Again, what you provided cannot be called "facts" as they are unsourced, undocumented elsewhere, and not privy to public scrutiny. Give us something that can be independently verified and then you might be taken seriously.
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1252380333][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252379989]

Nice try, but there are dozens and dozens of rock solid, irrefutable facts in these threads provided by me. I don't see anything other than personal attacks from you, which is apparently why you slithered away at some point. I anxiously await that happening again soon. If you open your eyes, you will also see that I provided the information that there are many REOs on MLS, which Rob validated and were not counted in the 8,000. But nooooo, that is too much for you to digest.</blockquote>


Again, what you provided cannot be called "facts" as they are unsourced, undocumented elsewhere, and not privy to public scrutiny. Give us something that can be independently verified and then you might be taken seriously.</blockquote>


Ok, here's a quick and easy way to shut you down: I provided rock solid, irrefutable evidence that several REOs on Foreclosure Radar in fact closed escrow last year. This was confirmed by Robert and (graciously) by Graphrix.



Your turn.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252380552][quote author="Nude" date=1252380333][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252379989]

Nice try, but there are dozens and dozens of rock solid, irrefutable facts in these threads provided by me. I don't see anything other than personal attacks from you, which is apparently why you slithered away at some point. I anxiously await that happening again soon. If you open your eyes, you will also see that I provided the information that there are many REOs on MLS, which Rob validated and were not counted in the 8,000. But nooooo, that is too much for you to digest.</blockquote>


Again, what you provided cannot be called "facts" as they are unsourced, undocumented elsewhere, and not privy to public scrutiny. Give us something that can be independently verified and then you might be taken seriously.</blockquote>


Ok, here's a quick and easy way to shut you down: I provided rock solid, irrefutable evidence that several REOs on Foreclosure Radar in fact closed escrow last year. This was confirmed by Robert and (graciously) by Graphrix.



Your turn.</blockquote>


Just so we are clear (and this is the last time I am doing your homework, Skipper Dan) what Graphrix actually said <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/5788/P200/#125400">was:</a>



<blockquote>Okay, you have ?proven? three on my list are no longer REO, that still means there are 12 REOs unaccounted for. Lets just give you the benefit of the doubt, and I?ll give you two more for a total of 5, and 10 for me. Mmmm? still looks like the majority of my list is REO, and that means 10 more REOs sitting there rotting on the banks books. Given that even though my list wasn?t correct, the majority of it was.



...



I proved there were more REOs unaccounted for than the list Robert used. It means the months supply of inventory is higher than you say, and shows you should show some respect to people who do know what they are talking about. Just like I told Robert, you might learn something. </blockquote>


See there? That was a link and a quote, you should try it ;)



However, you didn't technically prove anything; you made an assertion and left it to others to provide the evidence and/or independent confirmation.



You can forget about shutting me down. If they haven't banned you, they certainly aren't banning me which means you can count on me to be your personal heckler from now until you start treating others with the kind of respect you are demanding.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252380552][quote author="Nude" date=1252380333][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252379989]

Nice try, but there are dozens and dozens of rock solid, irrefutable facts in these threads provided by me. I don't see anything other than personal attacks from you, which is apparently why you slithered away at some point. I anxiously await that happening again soon. If you open your eyes, you will also see that I provided the information that there are many REOs on MLS, which Rob validated and were not counted in the 8,000. But nooooo, that is too much for you to digest.</blockquote>


Again, what you provided cannot be called "facts" as they are unsourced, undocumented elsewhere, and not privy to public scrutiny. Give us something that can be independently verified and then you might be taken seriously.</blockquote>


Ok, here's a quick and easy way to shut you down: I provided rock solid, irrefutable evidence that several REOs on Foreclosure Radar in fact closed escrow last year. This was confirmed by Robert and (graciously) by Graphrix.



Your turn.</blockquote>


You proved SOME of the REOs I posted had changed hands, not ALL the REOs. Why? Because they haven't changed hands. All that says is you have to scrub the data carefully, which I had asked Robert to do, but that would require work. In conclusion of that whole debate, it proved that regardless of a few changing hands, Robert was still under-counting the total amount of REOs out there.



And Nude has a very good point, cite your sources to prove your point. Otherwise... they are just words of Kool-Aid blown air.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1252382634][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252380552][quote author="Nude" date=1252380333][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252379989]

Nice try, but there are dozens and dozens of rock solid, irrefutable facts in these threads provided by me. I don't see anything other than personal attacks from you, which is apparently why you slithered away at some point. I anxiously await that happening again soon. If you open your eyes, you will also see that I provided the information that there are many REOs on MLS, which Rob validated and were not counted in the 8,000. But nooooo, that is too much for you to digest.</blockquote>


Again, what you provided cannot be called "facts" as they are unsourced, undocumented elsewhere, and not privy to public scrutiny. Give us something that can be independently verified and then you might be taken seriously.</blockquote>


Ok, here's a quick and easy way to shut you down: I provided rock solid, irrefutable evidence that several REOs on Foreclosure Radar in fact closed escrow last year. This was confirmed by Robert and (graciously) by Graphrix.



Your turn.</blockquote>


You proved SOME of the REOs I posted had changed hands, not ALL the REOs. Why? Because they haven't changed hands. All that says is you have to scrub the data carefully, which I had asked Robert to do, but that would require work. In conclusion of that whole debate, it proved that regardless of a few changing hands, Robert was still under-counting the total amount of REOs out there.



And Nude has a very good point, cite your sources to prove your point. Otherwise... they are just words of Kool-Aid blown air.</blockquote>


I didn't say this before because I don't want to get preachy, but I didn't post beyond dates and doc numbers because I would be infringing on the user agreements I accepted with the services I use. I don't have the right to disseminate their data any more than I have the right to steal music online. And it was more than three properties. And even if it weren't, they still constitute rock solid, irrefutable facts.
 
"All that says is you have to scrub the data carefully..."



It was your data that needed scrubbing and it was up to you to do it. That's not Robert being lazy.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252383046]"All that says is you have to scrub the data carefully..."



It was your data that needed scrubbing and it was up to you to do it. That's not Robert being lazy.</blockquote>


Wrong! It was up to Robert to go through my data of 188 properties, or go through the data of 70 some properties that awgee gave him. He took the easy route, and he didn't want to scrub the data, therefore he is lazy. If Robert or you would like for me to scrub the data for you, I would be happy to do that. Just let me know where to send the bill, er... for people in the RE industry I only take credit cards now, and there will be an up front retainer fee of 50% of the estimated hourly rate. Let me know if you are interested in my services... until then, Robert can scrub the data himself when he asks for it.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1252391577][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252383046]"All that says is you have to scrub the data carefully..."



It was your data that needed scrubbing and it was up to you to do it. That's not Robert being lazy.</blockquote>


Wrong! It was up to Robert to go through my data of 188 properties, or go through the data of 70 some properties that awgee gave him. He took the easy route, and he didn't want to scrub the data, therefore he is lazy. If Robert or you would like for me to scrub the data for you, I would be happy to do that. Just let me know where to send the bill, er... for people in the RE industry I only take credit cards now, and there will be an up front retainer fee of 50% of the estimated hourly rate. Let me know if you are interested in my services... until then, Robert can scrub the data himself when he asks for it.</blockquote>




WRONG!



Awgee was the original person I was talking to about getting the list, so I used his list. I looked at your list and it was clearly a bad list, with more than 50% of the properties inaccurately listed as REOs. Talk about lazy, your list was half-assed. You might as well have just sent me a list of every address in 92656...



NewportSkipper and I clearly showed that there are far less REOs unlisted than what was being stated.
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1252379045][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252377029][quote author="bltserv" date=1252375111]People tend to really want to believe in the industry they have chosen as a profession. They become passionate in their belief system

that a positive attitude about market conditions is necessary. Sadly the Real Estate and Mortgage Business in Orange County is going through

a once in a hundred year market cycle. Its difficult to sell a product that will be worth less in a few months and may not appreciate for

many years to come. (Kind of like selling electronics. Price is always falling).



The trick is to unhook your emotion in the transaction/sales process. We got a couple emotional guys here in Skippy and Robert.

Come on over to the "Dark Side". The force of this board is not with you when you blow smoke that "all is well and getting better" in this current market cycle.</blockquote>


Sorry, but that's just a cop-out to completely disregard our posts. There is plenty of supporting data, which we continue to post.



When it comes down to, only time will tell. The next 6 months will definitely tell if we hit the bottom or are a long ways away.</blockquote>


I had this same discussion with my Real Estate Agent about 6 months ago. She spent an hour showing me her selected data that supported her

opinions. Since then she has had 3 Arizona properties go to foreclosure that were part of her investment portfolio. We still keep in touch.

These days she is doing modifications. But still has her eye open for the property I will eventually purchase when my judgement

tells me we really have reached some type of bottom to these falling prices.



I am not disregarding the "cherry picked" data points you present. I am telling you to go do the "Cheerleader" act to somebody that will buy the BS.

IMO. The Theatre is on fire and you want to sell more tickets. I say NO THANKS. I will watch it burn from the outside safely.

Your opinion is tainted because you want/need a commission check. If your really good you can sell with out the "Cheerleader Act" bytheway.



A real sales guy can sell ice to eskimo`s.</blockquote>


Yes.. our data points are "cherry picked," but yours are undeniable, rock solid facts?



You my friend are ignorant, and that's not name calling because your statements are clearly showing that you have no time for another opinion that does not coincide with your own. So go ahead and ignorantly label facts as "cheerleading." I'll continue to support my opinion with facts and you can continue covering your ears and yelling blah blah blah, to anything that you don't agree with. Believe it or not, you might not know everything.
 
<img src="http://cache.g4tv.com/images/blog/2009/01/02/633664875610370470.jpg" alt="" />



<img src="http://www.themoviemind.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/rocky-and-drago.jpg" alt="" />
 
A little something from <a href="http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/what-should-a-california-home-cost-price-and-income-ratios-various-market-ratios-to-determine-real-estate-valuation/">Doctor Housing Bubble:</a>



"<em>I want to focus our attention on housing valuation. For those calling a bottom, it is also implied that they believe that incomes have stabilized and that prices rightfully reflect the economic situation of the potential buyers. Why else would you call it a bottom? Yet very little analysis is done regarding housing valuation. There is much yelling and punditry about a bottom but little long-term analysis is given to support this argument. Given the amount of Alt-A and option ARM products in California, we have unique exogenous factors that will play a role in housing prices for years to come. We also need to examine the state budget deficit and the state unemployment rate that is now at 11.9 percent but most likely is over 12 percent and if we look at the more encompassing figure of U-6, the state is well over 20 percent.</em>"



... ...



"<em>What you?ll notice in the chart above is during the 1970s, Californians saw strong per capita income growth. A large part of this was due to inflation. Home prices went up but so did incomes. In our current bubble, home prices shot up while per capita income was stagnant. Much of the growth was completely dependent on housing alchemy including Alt-A and option ARM toxic waste financing the housing mania in the state. As the chart above clearly highlights, once the elixir was removed so was the artificial price gains.



That is the question that very few seem willing to explore. Without these toxic products, the buying power of Californians is largely diminished. For the entire decade, easy credit loans allowed the bubble to take on a wild uncharted path of growth. Yet as we deflate, what should a California home sell for? Let us run some current numbers.</em>"



... ...



"<strong><em>Someone screaming that this is the bottom with no evidence is no better than the person saying the bubble prices were justified. In fact, it may be the same person.</em></strong>"
 
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