Artificial Intelligence

Irvinecommuter said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Mety said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
I wonder when AI will replace real estate agents.

They already did. It's called Redfin. Another one is Open Listings.

Haha  Last time I checked is that Redfin has human being agents that show properties to buyers and write up offers for them.  When will those humans be replaced by AI?  And I mean smart AI not like Redfin's "guestimates."

But Redfin agents charge less than traditional RE Agent because they do not need to find the houses for the client.  That's the point of AI, you don't eliminate every job...you just reduce the number of people needed and/or the difficulty of the job.

I've been doing rebates for over 12 years and that's worked very well for me since I've focused on building relationships with my clients, not being a greedy pig.  I also have a very unique variable commission structure for my seller clients that better ties my incentive with the incentive of the seller.  There's no other agent that uses my commission structure.  I'm happy to be making a difference one transaction at a time.
 
qwerty said:
I saw a smart key box on shark tank that allowed people to remotely give access to the key box. Not sure how well the product did or is doing. This was intended to minimize the usage of agents and buyers could go see a house directly. It was being tested in San Francisco I want to say.

It may have been a tad bit early. I think they said the MLS was an impediment. They should have partnered with Redfin. Haven?t been house hunting in seven years so maybe these things are actually being used already.

I saw that episode and went to their website.  I didn't find anything special about that lockbox and haven't seen it down here in So Cal.
 
Irvinecommuter said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Mety said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
I wonder when AI will replace real estate agents.

They already did. It's called Redfin. Another one is Open Listings.

Haha  Last time I checked is that Redfin has human being agents that show properties to buyers and write up offers for them.  When will those humans be replaced by AI?  And I mean smart AI not like Redfin's "guestimates."

But Redfin agents charge less than traditional RE Agent because they do not need to find the houses for the client.  That's the point of AI, you don't eliminate every job...you just reduce the number of people needed and/or the difficulty of the job.

Do you realize that Redin has reduced their commission rebates from 50% to less than 20% currently?  Guess that's what can happen when a distributor goes public and profits begin to matter.  haha  Don't get me wrong, Redfin has changed things for the better for buyers and sellers by providing more transparency but they are not the be-all and end-all solution.  They have their place in the market.  When they reached out to me asking if I was interested in joining their team a few years ago, I politely declined.
 
Many service jobs in the FIRE employment category will be "buggy whipped" by A.I. but full replacement is a tough sell. Example: If A.I. was transforming Real Estate by providing a cost crushing solution, why would Redfin see the need to partner up like this:

https://rismedia.com/2019/03/18/redfin-re-max-enter-exclusive-referral-relationship/

Boots on the ground are still needed.

P.S. Not to move the subject too far, but anyone else besides the Soylent Green family treasure the overlong, but weird and wonderful Spielberg film "A.I."?

My .02c

 
irvinehomeowner said:
It?s not as easy as we hope it will be. Even Ford said they may have overestimated autonomous driving:
https://www.engadget.com/2019/04/10/ford-ceo-says-the-company-overestimated-self-driving-cars/

Kenkoko?s daughter may need to learn to drive after all. :)

Her mom's a Tesla die hard so probably not  :p

You probably should take your world trend from an leading automaker instead of a lagger. Elon Musk says Tesla will go fully autonomous by end of 2019. I hate to knock Ford but they are really the bottom fedder of the industry. There's a reason why Ford's stock is down 20% since Tesla's IPO and Tesla has gone up more than 10x

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/20/elon-musk-full-self-driving-teslas-this-year-unequivocal-tesla-autopilot-improves-safety/

 
Anybody here watched the episode on AI from This Giant Beast That is the Global Economy (Amazon video)?

It's a bit all over the place but it was interesting.
 
marmott said:
Anybody here watched the episode on AI from This Giant Beast That is the Global Economy (Amazon video)?

It's a bit all over the place but it was interesting.

Yeah, that's actually the episode I showed my parents to help me explain AI to them. It's very entry level and general. Much easier to understand for people unfamiliar with AI.

It did briefly touched on what's really powerful and scary about AI, which is deep learning. That alone deserves another long video. Deep learning will change how we live.
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
Many service jobs in the FIRE employment category will be "buggy whipped" by A.I. but full replacement is a tough sell. Example: If A.I. was transforming Real Estate by providing a cost crushing solution, why would Redfin see the need to partner up like this:

https://rismedia.com/2019/03/18/redfin-re-max-enter-exclusive-referral-relationship/

Boots on the ground are still needed.

P.S. Not to move the subject too far, but anyone else besides the Soylent Green family treasure the overlong, but weird and wonderful Spielberg film "A.I."?

My .02c

Hmmm, this all those buyers at the low end of the spectrum that Redfin does not/can't service because the total commission is too low to provide a commission rebate to the buyer under the Redfin minimum model.
 
Kenkoko said:
marmott said:
Anybody here watched the episode on AI from This Giant Beast That is the Global Economy (Amazon video)?

It's a bit all over the place but it was interesting.

Yeah, that's actually the episode I showed my parents to help me explain AI to them. It's very entry level and general. Much easier to understand for people unfamiliar with AI.

It did briefly touched on what's really powerful and scary about AI, which is deep learning. That alone deserves another long video. Deep learning will change how we live.

Deep learning = SkyNet?
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
Many service jobs in the FIRE employment category will be "buggy whipped" by A.I. but full replacement is a tough sell.

That's the point though.  People thinking full replacement, my job can't be fully replaced, I'm safe.  No you're not.  Buggy whipping will be far worse than full replacement.  Buggy whipping is the GM factory worker model from 80s to bankruptcy.


Yang's infographic is junk IMHO.  He needs to show up and walk through an elementary school to see what automation and AI is already doing to instruction and student/teacher ratios. Higher grades will be even more impacted  I have no doubt there will always be boots on the ground, but that job is going to dramatically change.  All I hear at school & district meetings is about the middle school and high school teachers being 'content' experts.  That's dead person walking as AI is a content expert.  It's bullseye central for AI abilities.  Adaptive testing is already in place.  Connect the dots.  Programming has been in arms race for two decades already, it's just our expansion of tech offerings has been outpacing.  That'll change too, IMHO.

What happens to a field when your larger and well funded companies leverage automation to start making , 1%2% or 5% of the field redundant every year? 

The employment chart looks like this except the timeline will be compressed to 5 years, 10 years or maybe 15 years.
a01-uaw-290.png
 
nosuchreality said:
Soylent Green Is People said:
Many service jobs in the FIRE employment category will be "buggy whipped" by A.I. but full replacement is a tough sell.

That's the point though.  People thinking full replacement, my job can't be fully replaced, I'm safe.  No you're not.  Buggy whipping will be far worse than full replacement.  Buggy whipping is the GM factory worker model from 80s to bankruptcy.


Yang's infographic is junk IMHO.  He needs to show up and walk through an elementary school to see what automation and AI is already doing to instruction and student/teacher ratios. Higher grades will be even more impacted  I have no doubt there will always be boots on the ground, but that job is going to dramatically change.  All I hear at school & district meetings is about the middle school and high school teachers being 'content' experts.  That's dead person walking as AI is a content expert.  It's bullseye central for AI abilities.  Adaptive testing is already in place.  Connect the dots.  Programming has been in arms race for two decades already, it's just our expansion of tech offerings has been outpacing.  That'll change too, IMHO.

What happens to a field when your larger and well funded companies leverage automation to start making , 1%2% or 5% of the field redundant every year? 

The employment chart looks like this except the timeline will be compressed to 5 years, 10 years or maybe 15 years.
a01-uaw-290.png

I agree with you. It's much worse than it seems. To be fair to Yang, this info-graphic is based on the numbers published by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Yang's view is much more grim. I am halfway through his book, The war on normal people, he paints a much worse image in terms of economic disruption.

The problem with numbers published by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is that it's based on CURRENT available technology. We are evolving so quickly, this is going to get much worse than that projection.

But you see the problem is that people think the economic impact will be milder than the US government's version (just look at all the " it will be ok" posts on this forum)

When the truth is, it will definitely be worse.



 
I wonder when elementary, middle and high schools will transition to a live video teaching model and drop the teachers and maybe just have a teachers aid in the classroom, or perhaps this is already happening? I don?t have kids that age yet,

Don?t some universities offer online degrees with live instruction? I?ve done continuing education with remote live instructors. Some dude in Indiana with a bunch of people online watching live. Then they have a queue for questions.

Although I imagine parents would struggle with this concept especially for non high school aged children. And you know the government would reduce taxes to reflect the lower payroll/benefits/pension costs.
 
qwerty said:
I wonder when elementary, middle and high schools will transition to a live video teaching model and drop the teachers and maybe just have a teachers aid in the classroom, or perhaps this is already happening? I don?t have kids that age yet,

Don?t some universities offer online degrees with live instruction? I?ve done continuing education with remote live instructors. Some dude in Indiana with a bunch of people online watching live. Then they have a queue for questions.

Although I imagine parents would struggle with this concept especially for non high school aged children. And you know the government would reduce taxes to reflect the lower payroll/benefits/pension costs.

Teacher unions will fight it!
 
eyephone said:
qwerty said:
I wonder when elementary, middle and high schools will transition to a live video teaching model and drop the teachers and maybe just have a teachers aid in the classroom, or perhaps this is already happening? I don?t have kids that age yet,

Don?t some universities offer online degrees with live instruction? I?ve done continuing education with remote live instructors. Some dude in Indiana with a bunch of people online watching live. Then they have a queue for questions.

Although I imagine parents would struggle with this concept especially for non high school aged children. And you know the government would reduce taxes to reflect the lower payroll/benefits/pension costs.

Teacher unions will fight it!

Teachers will get to work from home. Isn?t that more convenient for them?
 
Mety said:
eyephone said:
qwerty said:
I wonder when elementary, middle and high schools will transition to a live video teaching model and drop the teachers and maybe just have a teachers aid in the classroom, or perhaps this is already happening? I don?t have kids that age yet,

Don?t some universities offer online degrees with live instruction? I?ve done continuing education with remote live instructors. Some dude in Indiana with a bunch of people online watching live. Then they have a queue for questions.

Although I imagine parents would struggle with this concept especially for non high school aged children. And you know the government would reduce taxes to reflect the lower payroll/benefits/pension costs.

Teacher unions will fight it!

Teachers will get to work from home. Isn?t that more convenient for them?

Naw. They are smarter than that.
In the mean time. You can home school your child with the online option. (For reals)
 
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