EvaLSeraphim_IHB
New member
That very well might have been a typo on my part. I don't recall now which one it was. So... losses in Shady, huh? Who woulda thunk?
Shady Canyon
- Thread starter ABC123_IHB
- Start date
EquityMind_IHB
New member
[quote author="awgee" date=1213301752]Equitymind - Any properties in particular we might find it interesting to keep our eyes on?</blockquote>
There are some interesting situations that I've heard about and I'm just waiting for the shakeout once the end of the year rolls around and the 'slow season' begins. If you follow Shady Canyon at all and know the history, you can really see what's about to occur. When lots first opened in the early phases most lots were going for around $600K per lot with an average size of roughly 21 - 22K sq. ft. per lot (Copper Creek side). A lot of speculators bought and built out homes here and made some decent returns - especially those that bought in the first phases of the Vistas (1st tract home phase). An interesting thing to note is that there were several double lot purchases due to the lot sizes and prices - perhaps 6 of those types of transactions.
The later phases of Shady on the Sage Creek and Canyon Creek side sold for much more - around $1.2MM as an average and also average larger lot sizes - perhaps 28K sq. ft. and many lots at 3/4 of an acre in size. Builders learned a lot from what the buyers in early phases wanted and a lot more customization is going into the homes and many offer substantial subterranean living including dramatic home theaters, wine cellars, bars, gyms, sauna etc. I'm seeing a lot more of that on the newer phases than the older phases. Another thing I'm noticing is larger home sizes on singe lot purchases (since the lots appear to be larger) and less multi lot purchases (two that I'm aware of and of the two one is a three lot purchase at the end of Echo Glen).
Here is what to look out for: You can almost see the line of original home lot purchases by the location of homes for sale and new listings, its no coincidence that all of these properties are lumped together because The Irvine Company had strict build out timelines for completion of construction so lots had to be built out within three years. Also, if lots were sold before build out, 50% of the profits have to be shared with the Irvine Company, so the fact that there are so many lots for sale is a troubling sign (since all TIC lots have been sold meaning those listed above are resales). So look at 'Open House Row' on Canyon Creek (you can literally park your car and go for a nice stroll and take in 13 for sale properties, many of them open on weekends) and realize that all of the other homes currently under construction also will be completed within an alloted timeframe. Now with approx 90% of homes in these phases being built as 'spec' homes and around 10% owner occupied, do the math - dozens of homes will flood the market in the coming months, most of them racing for completion to be listed on the market, in fact many of these homes go on sale while they are still finishing up - Ive been on several tours of homes still under costruction.
If the last TIC lot sold in 4th quarter of 2007, then the next 1 - 2 years will be very telling, especially considering there is a base of 60 homes and lots already on the market looking for multi million dollar buyers with maybe 90 - 100 more yet to come - all within the coming 2.5 years (how many of those will be spec?) and consider this - there have only been 4 closed transactions this year to date (including 1 lot).
Should be interesting.
There are some interesting situations that I've heard about and I'm just waiting for the shakeout once the end of the year rolls around and the 'slow season' begins. If you follow Shady Canyon at all and know the history, you can really see what's about to occur. When lots first opened in the early phases most lots were going for around $600K per lot with an average size of roughly 21 - 22K sq. ft. per lot (Copper Creek side). A lot of speculators bought and built out homes here and made some decent returns - especially those that bought in the first phases of the Vistas (1st tract home phase). An interesting thing to note is that there were several double lot purchases due to the lot sizes and prices - perhaps 6 of those types of transactions.
The later phases of Shady on the Sage Creek and Canyon Creek side sold for much more - around $1.2MM as an average and also average larger lot sizes - perhaps 28K sq. ft. and many lots at 3/4 of an acre in size. Builders learned a lot from what the buyers in early phases wanted and a lot more customization is going into the homes and many offer substantial subterranean living including dramatic home theaters, wine cellars, bars, gyms, sauna etc. I'm seeing a lot more of that on the newer phases than the older phases. Another thing I'm noticing is larger home sizes on singe lot purchases (since the lots appear to be larger) and less multi lot purchases (two that I'm aware of and of the two one is a three lot purchase at the end of Echo Glen).
Here is what to look out for: You can almost see the line of original home lot purchases by the location of homes for sale and new listings, its no coincidence that all of these properties are lumped together because The Irvine Company had strict build out timelines for completion of construction so lots had to be built out within three years. Also, if lots were sold before build out, 50% of the profits have to be shared with the Irvine Company, so the fact that there are so many lots for sale is a troubling sign (since all TIC lots have been sold meaning those listed above are resales). So look at 'Open House Row' on Canyon Creek (you can literally park your car and go for a nice stroll and take in 13 for sale properties, many of them open on weekends) and realize that all of the other homes currently under construction also will be completed within an alloted timeframe. Now with approx 90% of homes in these phases being built as 'spec' homes and around 10% owner occupied, do the math - dozens of homes will flood the market in the coming months, most of them racing for completion to be listed on the market, in fact many of these homes go on sale while they are still finishing up - Ive been on several tours of homes still under costruction.
If the last TIC lot sold in 4th quarter of 2007, then the next 1 - 2 years will be very telling, especially considering there is a base of 60 homes and lots already on the market looking for multi million dollar buyers with maybe 90 - 100 more yet to come - all within the coming 2.5 years (how many of those will be spec?) and consider this - there have only been 4 closed transactions this year to date (including 1 lot).
Should be interesting.
graphrix_IHB
New member
Wait... they have wine cellars? Do they come with wine? I mean, 1988 Mouton Rothschild, no two buck chuck that TenMagnet relies on, maybe some 2001 Chateau d'Yquem, or a case of 1990 Petrus might make me interested, but no wine = no deal.
awgee_IHB
New member
[quote author="graphrix" date=1213461885]Wait... they have wine cellars? Do they come with wine? I mean, 1988 Mouton Rothschild, no two buck chuck that TenMagnet relies on, maybe some 2001 Chateau d'Yquem, or a case of 1990 Petrus might make me interested, but no wine = no deal.</blockquote>
Even better than wine cellars, some of them have what my wife and I refer to as "man caves", (larger than 4 car garages).
EM - Thanks for the detailed info. Your facts affirm more generalized ideas I have had regarding Shady Canyon, but based on your info, it would appear that great price distress will be visiting the area.
Even better than wine cellars, some of them have what my wife and I refer to as "man caves", (larger than 4 car garages).
EM - Thanks for the detailed info. Your facts affirm more generalized ideas I have had regarding Shady Canyon, but based on your info, it would appear that great price distress will be visiting the area.
awgee_IHB
New member
<em>" The Irvine Company had strict build out timelines for completion of construction so lots had to be built out within three years."</em>
Is there some penalty or assessment if a finished home is not completed within the three years? I can just imagine TIC trying to collect.
Is there some penalty or assessment if a finished home is not completed within the three years? I can just imagine TIC trying to collect.
EquityMind_IHB
New member
There's been some interesting activity in Shady Canyon in the past 24 hours.
93 Canyon Creek posted a price drop of $405,000 dropping from $7,195,000 to $6,790,000.
108 Canyon Creek posted a price drop of $755,000 dropping from $5,959,000 to $5,195,000.
109 Canyon Creek posted a price drop of $1,000,000 dropping from $7,995,000 to $6,995,000.
a NOD was filed on 25 Blue Heron with a loan default of $5,000,000. Currently listed for sale at $5,495,000 http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=59725902(can't find this listing on Redfin). To my knowledge, this is the first NOD filed on a custom home in Shady Canyon. Others have been filed in the Sycamores and Master's Collection and on 1 custom lot I'm aware of, but not on a custom home. Please chime in if anyone has other information.
24 Cactus and 98 Canyon Creek were yanked off of the market and promptly re listed to bring their 'days on market' numbers down and now show as new listings. (I have also seen this happen at 20 Grey Owl and 66 Canyon Creek).
93 Canyon Creek posted a price drop of $405,000 dropping from $7,195,000 to $6,790,000.
108 Canyon Creek posted a price drop of $755,000 dropping from $5,959,000 to $5,195,000.
109 Canyon Creek posted a price drop of $1,000,000 dropping from $7,995,000 to $6,995,000.
a NOD was filed on 25 Blue Heron with a loan default of $5,000,000. Currently listed for sale at $5,495,000 http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=59725902(can't find this listing on Redfin). To my knowledge, this is the first NOD filed on a custom home in Shady Canyon. Others have been filed in the Sycamores and Master's Collection and on 1 custom lot I'm aware of, but not on a custom home. Please chime in if anyone has other information.
24 Cactus and 98 Canyon Creek were yanked off of the market and promptly re listed to bring their 'days on market' numbers down and now show as new listings. (I have also seen this happen at 20 Grey Owl and 66 Canyon Creek).
graphrix_IHB
New member
[quote author="skek" date=1215762828]IIRC, 25 Blue Heron was a short sale at that price. Someone with access to the broker-only remarks should confirm, but the last time I saw that listing, there was a reference to it being a short sale.</blockquote>
Check the foreclosure thread, and you will see that you are correct.
Check the foreclosure thread, and you will see that you are correct.
lendingmaestro_IHB
New member
[quote author="graphrix" date=1215763258][quote author="skek" date=1215762828]IIRC, 25 Blue Heron was a short sale at that price. Someone with access to the broker-only remarks should confirm, but the last time I saw that listing, there was a reference to it being a short sale.</blockquote>
Check the foreclosure thread, and you will see that you are correct.</blockquote>
But...but......how can there be a house in foreclosure? Only filthy rich people live there!
Check the foreclosure thread, and you will see that you are correct.</blockquote>
But...but......how can there be a house in foreclosure? Only filthy rich people live there!
IrvineRealtor_IHB
New member
[quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1215763787][quote author="graphrix" date=1215763258][quote author="skek" date=1215762828]IIRC, 25 Blue Heron was a short sale at that price. Someone with access to the broker-only remarks should confirm, but the last time I saw that listing, there was a reference to it being a short sale.</blockquote>
Check the foreclosure thread, and you will see that you are correct.</blockquote>
But...but......how can there be a house in foreclosure? Only filthy rich people live there!</blockquote>
25 Blue Heron
Sales History:
Last Recording Date: 06/04/2004
Sale Price: $5,780,000
Mortgage History:
Mortgage Date: 08/04/2006 + 06/04/2004
Mortgage Amt: $500,000 + $5,000,000
Comments state that "if" sales price is less than what is owed, WAMU must approve sale.
Check the foreclosure thread, and you will see that you are correct.</blockquote>
But...but......how can there be a house in foreclosure? Only filthy rich people live there!</blockquote>
25 Blue Heron
Sales History:
Last Recording Date: 06/04/2004
Sale Price: $5,780,000
Mortgage History:
Mortgage Date: 08/04/2006 + 06/04/2004
Mortgage Amt: $500,000 + $5,000,000
Comments state that "if" sales price is less than what is owed, WAMU must approve sale.
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1215767205][quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1215763787][quote author="graphrix" date=1215763258][quote author="skek" date=1215762828]IIRC, 25 Blue Heron was a short sale at that price. Someone with access to the broker-only remarks should confirm, but the last time I saw that listing, there was a reference to it being a short sale.</blockquote>
Check the foreclosure thread, and you will see that you are correct.</blockquote>
But...but......how can there be a house in foreclosure? Only filthy rich people live there!</blockquote>
25 Blue Heron
Sales History:
Last Recording Date: 06/04/2004
Sale Price: $5,780,000
Mortgage History:
Mortgage Date: 08/04/2006 + 06/04/2004
Mortgage Amt: $500,000 + $5,000,000
Comments state that "if" sales price is less than what is owed, WAMU must approve sale.</blockquote>
Damnit, why the hell did I buy my condo for $500k when I could have bought a $5MM mansion in Sandy Canyon by just lying about my income.
A'OH:
Check the foreclosure thread, and you will see that you are correct.</blockquote>
But...but......how can there be a house in foreclosure? Only filthy rich people live there!</blockquote>
25 Blue Heron
Sales History:
Last Recording Date: 06/04/2004
Sale Price: $5,780,000
Mortgage History:
Mortgage Date: 08/04/2006 + 06/04/2004
Mortgage Amt: $500,000 + $5,000,000
Comments state that "if" sales price is less than what is owed, WAMU must approve sale.</blockquote>
Damnit, why the hell did I buy my condo for $500k when I could have bought a $5MM mansion in Sandy Canyon by just lying about my income.
A'OH:EquityMind_IHB
New member
28 Black Falcon just dropped $600,000 from $6,550,000 to $5,950,000
ABC123_IHB
New member
Why does it seem like every one of those "custom" homes looks the same in the redfin photos? Do they all have the same architect?
awgee_IHB
New member
[quote author="EquityMind" date=1215809538]28 Black Falcon just dropped $600,000 from $6,550,000 to $5,950,000</blockquote>
When I was a kid, there would be three or four gas stations at an intersection and they would have "gas wars". Seems like the spec builders in Shady Canyon are having house wars. Could this be the real estate long equivalent of a short squeeze? All panicking to get out at the same time?
When I was a kid, there would be three or four gas stations at an intersection and they would have "gas wars". Seems like the spec builders in Shady Canyon are having house wars. Could this be the real estate long equivalent of a short squeeze? All panicking to get out at the same time?
25w100k+_IHB
New member
If they overbuilt in shady canyon, (and it seems like they did) maybe we'll see a sqeeze from the top. If all the spec homes start getting to around 3-4 mil, maybe the villas will start selling in the 2 millions. Then the people that were gonna buy in NP will move to shady, and the NP people will have to lower their prices. *shrug*
NoWowway_IHB
New member
Attention Shady Canyon Resident,
Your expensive tortoise was turned into Irvine Animal Control by the gatekeeper guard today. The staff estimates the value of this turtle to be about $1k. It is expected to grow to 250 pounds. Please come and pick it up asap.
(true!) ;-)
Your expensive tortoise was turned into Irvine Animal Control by the gatekeeper guard today. The staff estimates the value of this turtle to be about $1k. It is expected to grow to 250 pounds. Please come and pick it up asap.
(true!) ;-)
awgee_IHB
New member
[quote author="NoWowway" date=1216185995]Attention Shady Canyon Resident,
Your expensive tortoise was turned into Irvine Animal Control by the gatekeeper guard today. The staff estimates the value of this turtle to be about $1k. It is expected to grow to 250 pounds. Please come and pick it up asap.
(true!) ;-)</blockquote>
Sulcata?
Your expensive tortoise was turned into Irvine Animal Control by the gatekeeper guard today. The staff estimates the value of this turtle to be about $1k. It is expected to grow to 250 pounds. Please come and pick it up asap.
(true!) ;-)</blockquote>
Sulcata?