Sales at The Groves in Orchard Hills slowing down?

Oh no!  You feel totally empowered by that, huh? 

OK, OK, I promise to be more careful.  #justpromisenomoreWeirdAl
 
NYT said:
Really, contingent loan applications is the criteria you're using to determine slowing? I'm surprised you didn't say, once they go through their all-cash buyers, then you know things are really slowing. I'd say that when they start offering incentives, that'd be a sign of things slowing, not when they take contingent loan applications.
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My point was not based on the number of contingent loan applications.  My point was on builders ACCEPTING or CONSIDERING contingent loan applications.

I was making an additional point of criteria for slowdown on top of incentives.  Incentives will come first, then contingent sales.  Incentives are less risky for the builders...contingent sales are more risky, so that's the last thing they'll do.  So yes, I stand by my comment.  If they start taking contingent apps (after incentives stop working), then price drops will likely follow.

On a separate point...do I think it's going to happen?  Absolutely not.
 
WTTCMN said:
The fact that this thread exists is troublesome.  OH is supposed to be the crown jewel. TIC had years to perfect the timing yet it was a year late and a few dollars too much.
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I don't think it has to do with timing.  There's just a lot of inventory on both the gated and ungated side and it's overpriced.  Price homes correctly and they would sell out every weekend.  Simple supply and demand.  But TIC and the other builders wanna maximize their investment until the market says F*** you.  When that FU point is anyone's guess.
 
WTTCMN said:
The fact that this thread exists is troublesome.  OH is supposed to be the crown jewel. TIC had years to perfect the timing yet it was a year late and a few dollars too much.
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A couple of points that have been made before.

No one can "perfect timing."  NWHM was probably closest with LR, but that was really a matter of luck.

The real estate market seems to be slowing as a whole.  It doesnt make sense to think the most expensive product would be immune. 
 
WTTCMN said:
OCgasman said:
WTTCMN said:
The fact that this thread exists is troublesome.  OH is supposed to be the crown jewel. TIC had years to perfect the timing yet it was a year late and a few dollars too much.
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I don't think it has to do with timing.  There's just a lot of inventory on both the gated and ungated side and it's overpriced.  Price homes correctly and they would sell out every weekend.  Simple supply and demand.  But TIC and the other builders wanna maximize their investment until the market says F*** you.  When that FU point is anyone's guess.
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Yes and no. If OH was introduced last may instead of this May - results would be different. I stood in a room weeks after weeks with people throwing money at tripointe for 4k lots, no gate, higher density and way overpriced boxes.  Im just musing about TIC's timing. But I'm sure they were making money hand over fist over in SG and other parts of town.
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Biggest problem is that they saturated their own market.  Probably felt some pressure with 5 Points but now.. just too many options at inflated prices.  People can wait it out and be picky.
 
gasman said:
jmoney74 said:
People can wait it out and be picky.
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Damn skippy.  Who's jumpin' on this bandwagon with me?
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FOR TIC properties.. its like do you want to be in a home on the hills.. next to the freeway.. next to Woodbury towncenter?  doesn't matter.. same home.. different location. 
 
WTTCMN said:
If OH was introduced last may instead of this May - results would be different.
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I agree with you but I also think that TIC couldn't logistically release OH at that time.

They just started releasing CV, were in the middle of SG and winding down LA.

I'm sure they started negotiating with builders before last year and once they saw 5P taking off, they fast tracked it but it takes months to build the models/offices and surrounding amenities.

Maybe it can be argued that instead of CV they should have focused on OH, but at that time, the market was all about the sub $1m so it made sense to focus on the area where they were building out the next middle school.

It could be like LagAlt and stutter for a while, but LA had University High and "coastal canyon" going for them vs Beckman and "avocado hills". I just think OH is going to be a slow burn like Portola Springs. It took forever them to sell out Sienna and Las Colinas.
 
ps9 said:
IHO misspoke?  On Irvine housing?  Inconceivable! 
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I don't think that means what you think it means.

bones is right... it was Serra by StanPac. I think Sienna (Siena?) was the Columbus Grove big homes by Lyon. We were looking at both at the same time... was very close to buying either but so glad we didn't.
 
WTTCMN said:
Yea I agree with your points.  Just find it ironic that OH was mothballed for years for I'm assuming, better market conditions (aka timing), yet it opened at the start of a slowdown.
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Yep. I believe OH has been rumored since 05... it is funny.
Btw - it's Serra :)
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Thanks... see.... we do look at the same stuff.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
bones is right... it was Serra by StanPac. I think Sienna (Siena?) was the Columbus Grove big homes by Lyon. We were looking at both at the same time... was very close to buying either but so glad we didn't.
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Great decision.
 
I think we "almost" bought 4 new and have made offers on at least 5 resale. The number of actually resale and model homes we have looked at is significantly higher.

I think that info is safely out of overshare zone.
 
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