Sales at The Groves in Orchard Hills slowing down?

A slowdown on sales was inevitable.  I'm sure the reasons are multifactorial and builder dependent also.  There are lots of choices at the Groves and a smaller pool of buyers.  After the initial rush where everyone wants to get in on phase 1 and 2, people are usually more deliberate in their decision making.  People might be waiting for a specific lot in later phases.  Also, I think most (all?) builders are only considering non-contingent buyers at this point, so that further decreases the pool of buyers. 

The builders won't lower prices, they'll just offer upgrade credits.  If the market does crash, then they'll lower prices and early buyers will be pissed.  I don't think that'll happen but it's too early to make any type of prediction.

Remember, Laguna Altura had problems moving their homes at one point and look at their values now.  Lambert Ranch sold well, but they were the only game in town for their type of product with very little competition.  Unless there's a repeat in market correction ala 06/07, I think most neighborhoods will do fine, just will take awhile.  But not sure the Groves can sustain a 1-2% increase in price with every phase release, actually not sure if any village can sustain that kinda phase price increase in today's market, but who knows.

But, I'm like a broken record here.  Buy a house that works for your family and lifestyle within your budget, appreciation will come with time.  Enjoy the memories you'll make in that home.
 
WTTCMN said:
qwerty said:
WTTCMN said:
qwerty said:
My guess for the slowdown is people are waiting to see Stan PACs greenwood at Tustin Legacy aka tustin ranch south :)
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I heard the view lots there are incredible ;). Take your breath away for sure.
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hey how many people can claim they have historic landmarks virtually in their backyard :)
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Damn it. Not the view I was talking about.
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the bat = historic landmark at least in columbus square :)
 
OCgasman said:
A slowdown on sales was inevitable.  I'm sure the reasons are multifactorial and builder dependent also.  There are lots of choices at the Groves and a smaller pool of buyers.  After the initial rush where everyone wants to get in on phase 1 and 2, people are usually more deliberate in their decision making.  People might be waiting for a specific lot in later phases.  Also, I think most (all?) builders are only considering non-contingent buyers at this point, so that further decreases the pool of buyers. 

The builders won't lower prices, they'll just offer upgrade credits.  If the market does crash, then they'll lower prices and early buyers will be pissed.  I don't think that'll happen but it's too early to make any type of prediction.

Remember, Laguna Altura had problems moving their homes at one point and look at their values now.  Lambert Ranch sold well, but they were the only game in town for their type of product with very little competition.  Unless there's a repeat in market correction ala 06/07, I think most neighborhoods will do fine, just will take awhile.  But not sure the Groves can sustain a 1-2% increase in price with every phase release, actually not sure if any village can sustain that kinda phase price increase in today's market, but who knows.

But, I'm like a broken record here.  Buy a house that works for your family and lifestyle within your budget, appreciation will come with time.  Enjoy the memories you'll make in that home.
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OCgasman, always a voice of rationality on here. Stop being so rational and start making some inflammatory, baseless, fact-free statements! This is TalkIrvine after all.
 
raisingkids said:
Dear potential or current OH buyers,

Are you concerned about the halt, or slowing down of the home sales at Orchard Hills, specifically in La Vita, Messina and Vicenza? 

Please correct me if I'm wrong.  My impression is that these builders have slowed down opening their phases.  I.e. La Vita, isn't opening up phase 3 (total of 10 phases) until August and their current phase 2 is not sold out and buyers are potentially backing out of their reservations (impression from today's visit). 

I wonder how this will affect the buyers of Capella in phases 1-4?  And other early buyers of Saviero, Amelia and Trevi (these builders have a higher rate of selling).  Will it be like Portola Springs, wherein they dropped the prices a year later?

I thought one would be lucky to get into the early phases, but considering that maybe not.  And that waiting may be a better game plan.

Any insight?
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Unless you're looking to flip a home, you shouldn't be worried about month-to-month fluctuations in sales/prices at OH. Over a period of several years, I have no doubt that OH is a winner for buyers. If I were looking to buy a home, I have no doubt that I'd be buying at OH and wouldn't even consider depreciation as a realistic proposition.
 
thatOSguy said:
NYT said:
raisingkids said:
Dear potential or current OH buyers,

Are you concerned about the halt, or slowing down of the home sales at Orchard Hills, specifically in La Vita, Messina and Vicenza? 

Please correct me if I'm wrong.  My impression is that these builders have slowed down opening their phases.  I.e. La Vita, isn't opening up phase 3 (total of 10 phases) until August and their current phase 2 is not sold out and buyers are potentially backing out of their reservations (impression from today's visit). 

I wonder how this will affect the buyers of Capella in phases 1-4?  And other early buyers of Saviero, Amelia and Trevi (these builders have a higher rate of selling).  Will it be like Portola Springs, wherein they dropped the prices a year later?

I thought one would be lucky to get into the early phases, but considering that maybe not.  And that waiting may be a better game plan.

Any insight?
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Unless you're looking to flip a home, you shouldn't be worried about month-to-month fluctuations in sales/prices at OH. Over a period of several years, I have no doubt that OH is a winner for buyers. If I were looking to buy a home, I have no doubt that I'd be buying at OH and wouldn't even consider depreciation as a realistic proposition.
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Truth. But with the "should be free" sentiment and with the Irvine Signature mini-blinds you often see installed in otherwise lux homes, it's not surprising there is a hyper-focus on the price movement between phases -- and the instinct to get the absolute best deal.
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LOL. I never understand why someone buys a million$+ home and then does cheap things. Even with HOA guidelines, there are a bunch of people trying to get by with spending a couple thousand on their landscaping, and it shows.
 
jmoney74 said:
O Hills said:
It seems that overall real estate sales have slowed.  Not just in OH.
The price range in the Groves might amplify the trend-- there's a smaller pool of potential buyers.
I wonder if China's efforts to slow cash outflow might be having an impact.

But, yeah, it's a little concerning.
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Also overhyped.  Not as luxurious as advertised.
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Does hype/advertising matter to anyone?
It's completely meaningless to me.
(I've seen homes in Riverside touted as "luxury.")

We didnt want to uproot our kids at Orhcard Hills and Beckman and we wanted new construction.
So, OH was really the only game in town.  (I couldn't find a better deal in resale, but that ground has been covered.)

I'm not worried about price fluctuations, because we're not buying the home as an investment.
I am a little concerned about a spike HOA dues if the other communies stall out.
Maybe TIC will extend its subsidy if that happens. 

What happened with PS HOA dues when the bottom dropped out?
 
Speaking of Brookfield homes - update on La Vita. They have 1 left on phase 2 and phase 3 opens next month. I was surprised that prices dropped a bit but mainly that's because phase 3 does not have any city light views - just tree views based on their site map.

So even though we see some slight price fluctuations between phases, sometimes it's based on lot size and location which is variable as exampled by LaVita.
 

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I'm playing the waiting game.  I wanted to see what is going to happen come October when the Fed stops the bond buying program.  They claim it will have no affect on interest rates for a while, but I just don't see how that will be possible.  If rates shoot up 1% or more.  That will significantly affect what most buyers can afford, the builders may be pressured to lower prices to counter the effect.  I already locked in a low credit line for this event.
 
MFWIC said:
I'm playing the waiting game.  I wanted to see what is going to happen come October when the Fed stops the bond buying program.  They claim it will have no affect on interest rates for a while, but I just don't see how that will be possible.  If rates shoot up 1% or more.  That will significantly affect what most buyers can afford, the builders may be pressured to lower prices to counter the effect.  I already locked in a low credit line for this event.
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This should have less impact on OH buyers since many bring a significant amount of cash.
 
 
Trevi and Amelia looks like they are almost sold out.  So indeed the $2M+ markets are still strong. 
 
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