Its as if this article was written by someone who read through the TI forum first ... wow what high class journalism we have right here in house .
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/03/15/republicans-arent-in-denial-they-know-theyre-in-trouble/?utm_term=.bec59f4b8318&wpisrc=nl_popns&wpmm=1
Republicans aren?t in denial. They know they?re in trouble.
Spinning a loss is never easy, but after Conor Lamb squeaked out an apparent victory in a Pennsylvania district that Donald Trump won by 20 points in 2016, Republicans gave it their best shot. Lamb, they argued, prevailed only because he was a Democrat in Republican clothing.
?The candidate who is going to win this race is the candidate who ran as a pro-life, pro-gun, anti-Nancy Pelosi, conservative,? said Paul Ryan. That was certainly how President Trump saw the race. In remarks at a private fundraiser obtained by the Atlantic, he said this:
?The young man last night that ran, he said, ?Oh, I?m like Trump. Second Amendment, everything. I love the tax cuts, everything.? He ran on that basis,? Trump said. ?He ran on a campaign that said very nice things about me. I said, ?Is he a Republican? He sounds like a Republican to me.'?
For the record, Lamb opposed the tax cut, didn?t say nice things about Trump, certainly didn?t say ?I?m like Trump? and does support some restrictions on guns. The fuller picture is that Lamb is quite progressive on many issues but somewhat conservative on others ? in other words, exactly the kind of Democrat who has a chance to win in a district like that one.
Self-delusion is always a danger in politics. When you?re constantly called upon to describe the silver lining around every cloud, you can wind up persuading yourself that everything?s fine even when it isn?t.
But in this case, you can look past the spin, because Republicans know they?re in big trouble. Republicans aren?t in denial: Behind the scenes, they?re somewhere between spooked and panicked. Ryan privately told his members that the Pennsylvania results show they need to bear down and work harder if they?re going to avoid disaster.
And as David Drucker reports, other Republicans are reinforcing that message:
Top House Republicans are warning complacent incumbents that there?s no such thing as a safe red seat after Democrat Conor Lamb upset Republican Rick Saccone in a Pennsylvania district President Trump won by 20 points.
Vulnerable Republicans in battlegrounds seats aren?t the party?s main concern eight months before a midterm election shaping up as backlash against Trump. Those incumbents are perennial targets and conditioned to work hard to win re-election.
Rather, Republican leaders are worried about a dozen or so untested members with a history of coasting in presumably solid conservative territory, similar to Southwest Pennsylvania?s 18th District, in part because they?ve never run in a toxic environment.
?Candidates who have never been through tough races have a hard time understanding what it is like and usually don?t understand until it is too late,? Liesl Hickey, former executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee, told the Washington Examiner. ?There are a lot of unprepared candidates who are sitting ducks right now and don?t even know it.?
If Trump won your district by 2 points, you?ve been raising money madly ever since November 2016 and shaking every hand you can find. But if Trump won your district by 10 points, you may have thought you didn?t have too much to worry about.
And that?s where the area of deepest concern for Republicans may lie right now: not with the battleground districts where millions of dollars are going to pour in and focus everyone?s attention, but rather the districts that suddenly become competitive without Republican incumbents realizing the full extent of the danger before it?s too late.
There may be more of those districts than we think. As David Wasserman notes:
According to the Cook Political Report?s Partisan Voter Index, there are 118 Republican-held districts less friendly to the GOP than PA?s 18th CD (R+11), including 17 where the GOP incumbent isn?t running in the fall.
While you ruminate on that 118 number, remember that Democrats only need a net gain of 24 to take control of the chamber. And what really differentiates a wave election from an ordinary one is that a whole bunch of people who thought they were safe suddenly aren?t. The national trend of an energized opposition party swamps local factors such as the member?s long service to his district.
Republicans aren?t stupid; they?ve seen something like this coming for a while. That?s why three dozen of them are retiring or running for a higher office. That list may even grow by a few (though in many states the filing deadlines have passed). And if they didn?t realize just how bad things could get, they probably do now.
They?ll still spin events like Pennsylvania?s special election and insist that if you just look at it the right way, it?s a win for the GOP. But almost no one actually believes it ? with the possible exception of Trump
