jamboreedude
New member
Only 6 home sites left in Capri @ Hidden Canyon. 
Hidden Canyon in Irvine
- Thread starter lcms2002
- Start date
Latest pricing sheet.
Over $5M for the non-model view lot, lot 106.
My take on desirability, (3) and (4) are close calls...
(1) 2 sides view
(2) 1 side view (clear view from 1F /2F)
(3) Non-view, no house above/behind
(4) 1 side view (obstructed view from 1F, clear view from 2F)
(5) Non-view, house behind
(6) Non-view, house above/behind
Over $5M for the non-model view lot, lot 106.
My take on desirability, (3) and (4) are close calls...
(1) 2 sides view
(2) 1 side view (clear view from 1F /2F)
(3) Non-view, no house above/behind
(4) 1 side view (obstructed view from 1F, clear view from 2F)
(5) Non-view, house behind
(6) Non-view, house above/behind
Attachments
Shady, NB, NC, and HC are all very nice neighborhoods.
Actions speak louder than words, for TB to sell 250+ homes in less than 2 years in the $2.5M-$3.5M range is a very good indicator.
The fact that ppl are willing to pay $4M and $5M for view lots is prob a confidence boost for the rest of the HC owners.
You would think the HC buyers are able to purchase these high end homes because they made right calls in the past, and maybe the HC purchase is also a good one?
New communities generally get a boost in value after built out, we shall see......
Actions speak louder than words, for TB to sell 250+ homes in less than 2 years in the $2.5M-$3.5M range is a very good indicator.
The fact that ppl are willing to pay $4M and $5M for view lots is prob a confidence boost for the rest of the HC owners.
You would think the HC buyers are able to purchase these high end homes because they made right calls in the past, and maybe the HC purchase is also a good one?
New communities generally get a boost in value after built out, we shall see......
I have a couple theories on why Toll has been so successful in Hidden Canyon and why buyers seem to be favoring it over the older premium neighborhoods like Shady, NC, NB, etc.
First, buyers in this price range are very picky. Much more so than the people buying starter homes in Irvine. They are older and have bought a few homes before. They know what they like design-wise and what they don't. They want to decorate and upgrade their home a certain way. This is a pain to do with older homes in similar price range. It's not surprising that many of these Toll buyers are actually people moving from these older premium neighborhoods.
Two, even if you want to buy in one of these nicer neighborhoods, sellers are often asking way too much for their homes. So add in unrealistic prices and finding that perfect home that has the design features you like and most buyers say screw it - I'll just go with a new build.
Another factor is the floor plans from 2000-2010 have really not aged well at all. Low 9 ft ceilings, chopped up rooms, arched entries and few vaulted ceilings. They just don't show well in person - listing pictures look much better than actually walking through these homes. Prime examples are Vicara in Quail hill and many of the homes in Turtle Ridge.
I remember touring them when they opened and thinking, wow, these are my dream homes. One day, I hope to buy one of these. Now, compared to the new builds, they just don't do it for me.
Compare the the 2000s floor plan to the homes in Turtle Rock Summit. Homes are bright and airy because of the two story vaulted ceilings and windows everywhere. These homes have aged much better. See this example.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/10-Hexham-92603/home/4745688
Remember this murder house? I would've chosen this over anything in quail hill or turtle ridge and the shady 3MM homes with no view. Sold in a week(it did sell for nice discount to comps though).
I have no idea how Hidden canyon will do in the future, but I think the most important factor will be how these floor plans and design styles age.
First, buyers in this price range are very picky. Much more so than the people buying starter homes in Irvine. They are older and have bought a few homes before. They know what they like design-wise and what they don't. They want to decorate and upgrade their home a certain way. This is a pain to do with older homes in similar price range. It's not surprising that many of these Toll buyers are actually people moving from these older premium neighborhoods.
Two, even if you want to buy in one of these nicer neighborhoods, sellers are often asking way too much for their homes. So add in unrealistic prices and finding that perfect home that has the design features you like and most buyers say screw it - I'll just go with a new build.
Another factor is the floor plans from 2000-2010 have really not aged well at all. Low 9 ft ceilings, chopped up rooms, arched entries and few vaulted ceilings. They just don't show well in person - listing pictures look much better than actually walking through these homes. Prime examples are Vicara in Quail hill and many of the homes in Turtle Ridge.
I remember touring them when they opened and thinking, wow, these are my dream homes. One day, I hope to buy one of these. Now, compared to the new builds, they just don't do it for me.
Compare the the 2000s floor plan to the homes in Turtle Rock Summit. Homes are bright and airy because of the two story vaulted ceilings and windows everywhere. These homes have aged much better. See this example.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/10-Hexham-92603/home/4745688
Remember this murder house? I would've chosen this over anything in quail hill or turtle ridge and the shady 3MM homes with no view. Sold in a week(it did sell for nice discount to comps though).
I have no idea how Hidden canyon will do in the future, but I think the most important factor will be how these floor plans and design styles age.
Rtlguru said:
Yeah I thought the same when I looked at those quail hill homes last year. Floor plans and pictures are no substitute for actual walk through . I had made a similar point on this thread sometime ago that the 90s designs in parts of Irvine (west park, Northwood point, turtle rock summit) have actually aged much better than the early mid 2000s in turtle ridge / quail hill.
With young kids etc . a lot of your life happens around the kitchen and backyard area and having a bigger open floor plan that blends the interior w exterior makes it more livable than a bunch of walled off smaller rooms. Maybe once we are older and kids are in college , our tastes will change again at that point.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Rtlguru said:
I think this is subjective. I do like many of 2000s plans, at least they had multiple living spaces and functional use. Builders have force fed the buyers to believe that one Great Room downstairs is enough, and in reality, it's not. This is just like taking away a 3rd car garage space, the dining room, the living room and anything else the builders can do to increase psf profit.
Earlier in this thread, I posted a floorplan for a Vicara home (which I have personally toured), the ceilings are fine and there is even a Great Room.
They don't put many vaulted ceilings in today's builds due to lack of space, you'll see one or two vaulted areas like a foyer but in most cases it's not like the 80s/90s plans. Making higher than 9ft ceilings is easier for them because it doesn't take away acreage so they can still increase lot numbers.
And even then, if I recall the Hidden Canyon floorplans, most homes only had a 2 car garage (poor teenager kid has to put their vehicle outside) and less living spaces... so those vaulted ceilings are for nothing other than flying paper airplanes.
In my opinion, Hidden Canyon (and high-end Laguna Altura) have boring floorplans for the cost. Seriously, at that price point, it should be more than a 2-car garage and bigger lots with sprawling floorplans and multiple rooms.
If you are going to spend that, get a single loaded street with a view like Vicara or go Shady.
As Funkie said , actions speak louder than words. People have voted with their feet / $$ . No one (builder) is forcing anyone to do anything at that price point . These buyers could have had their pick from many quail hill homes sitting on MLS for ages but the fact is they didn't. Many real estate agents also would rather have seen 250 homes in this price range in quail hill /turtle / shady move in secondary market rather than let Toll soak up all the high end Irvine demand in one swoop.
this debate is reminiscent to me of car guys bemoaning death of stick shifts giving way to automatics or of the move to SUVs and crossovers over the cars they prefer. Tastes change. Time will tell if we look back in 10 years and think that these new communities were able to keep pace with evolving fashion or not. No one knows right now.
this debate is reminiscent to me of car guys bemoaning death of stick shifts giving way to automatics or of the move to SUVs and crossovers over the cars they prefer. Tastes change. Time will tell if we look back in 10 years and think that these new communities were able to keep pace with evolving fashion or not. No one knows right now.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
fortune11 said:
This is not a strong position. Maybe my brother Aquabliss can tell us on average how long the high-end homes in QH have been "sitting on the MLS".
Why new homes sell at a faster clip than resale isn't exactly tied to which floorplan/area is better than the other, it's because new homes have an inherent advantage of more readily available inventory, no haggling on price, and higher range of choices in regards to finishes and location.
A quick Redfin on sold homes > $2.25m in the last 2 years shows 202 homes sold. There is some overlap as some are from the new communities like OH, GP and LA/HC but the bulk of these sales are in the Turtles, Shady and yes... Quail Hill. So I think resale is doing just fine based on the limitations they have vs new homes.
Exactly. So how can people say that the floorplans/designs of QH is why people would buy at HC instead? It's all subjective, which was my point. I think just as many people prefer the "older" designs as there are people who just prefer newer regardless of the design.
It's just like gated vs. non-gated... OH itself has proven that the gate isn't the end all to demand and appreciation.
For every person who is going to justify buying new because of their awesome floorplans, there is an IHO that prefers the old dated ugly ones.
And I think this was said before but most of HC looks like tract homes, too close together considering the price point. I don't know what the larger Marbella area looks like now that it's more built out but again, I prefer the single loaded streets of Vicarra with that "breath-taking" backyard view of Irvine. And to me, a Shady "custom" home or a TRock rebuild seems better (and has YellowFever bonus of being away from the 133/405).
irvinehomeowner said:
was there recently as wife helped setup a friends party over at the clubhouse/community pool.
they still look like that. tract homes that are too closed together - made much more apparently since these are large sqft homes on relatively small lots (for their seize) and most elevations fill the spaces above the garage so the homes are even more cramped.
agreed on those single-loaded streets of nice QH homes, but some of those floor plans definitely didn't age as well (but this is subjective part)
I think during the initial phases the prices were relatively reasonable for HC, but they are a bit overpriced as they get nearer to closing out...
HC is a tract home community, so, it will have a tract home feel.
I "studied" HC for a long time, each lot is unique since it is being built on the hill.
Something interesting: Capri did not save the best lots for the final phase, but Marbella did. (I think TB experienced some slow momentum when selling Capri, and had to release some premium lots to keep things moving)
Premium lots are usually wider and longer. Wider: 70'+, longer: 120'+
And these premium lots would offer greater distance to your next door neighbor.
Just drive up the community, take a look on Panorama and Scenic Crest. You will know what I mean.
I "studied" HC for a long time, each lot is unique since it is being built on the hill.
Something interesting: Capri did not save the best lots for the final phase, but Marbella did. (I think TB experienced some slow momentum when selling Capri, and had to release some premium lots to keep things moving)
Premium lots are usually wider and longer. Wider: 70'+, longer: 120'+
And these premium lots would offer greater distance to your next door neighbor.
Just drive up the community, take a look on Panorama and Scenic Crest. You will know what I mean.
"Why new homes sell at a faster clip than resale isn't exactly tied to which floorplan/area is better than the other, it's because new homes have an inherent advantage of more readily available inventory, no haggling on price, and higher range of choices in regards to finishes and location.
A quick Redfin on sold homes > $2.25m in the last 2 years shows 202 homes sold. There is some overlap as some are from the new communities like OH, GP and LA/HC but the bulk of these sales are in the Turtles, Shady and yes... Quail Hill. So I think resale is doing just fine based on the limitations they have vs new homes."
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you really believe that these homes sales in QH and TR wouldn't have been significantly higher were it not for HC that poached away demand ? this is basic economics. Just as resales of existing homes in NW are getting hurt by new sales in OH. Just ask any agent who is in touch with reality. USCTrojan correctly points out (in a different thread) that once the new sales are all done and dusted., low inventory levels should lead to further appreciation.
And yes, I totally think HC could have been improved given the price point, Toll squeezed every single penny out of it but that has no bearing on how the floor plans are and what todays buyers prefer.
The fact of the matter is, gone are the days of large lots in desirable neighborhoods for new construction. Every time someone buys a home within a constrained budget they are optimizing the variables that matter most to them.
A quick Redfin on sold homes > $2.25m in the last 2 years shows 202 homes sold. There is some overlap as some are from the new communities like OH, GP and LA/HC but the bulk of these sales are in the Turtles, Shady and yes... Quail Hill. So I think resale is doing just fine based on the limitations they have vs new homes."
---
you really believe that these homes sales in QH and TR wouldn't have been significantly higher were it not for HC that poached away demand ? this is basic economics. Just as resales of existing homes in NW are getting hurt by new sales in OH. Just ask any agent who is in touch with reality. USCTrojan correctly points out (in a different thread) that once the new sales are all done and dusted., low inventory levels should lead to further appreciation.
And yes, I totally think HC could have been improved given the price point, Toll squeezed every single penny out of it but that has no bearing on how the floor plans are and what todays buyers prefer.
The fact of the matter is, gone are the days of large lots in desirable neighborhoods for new construction. Every time someone buys a home within a constrained budget they are optimizing the variables that matter most to them.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
fortune11 said:
You are backtracking a bit here. And I said nothing about "sales being higher".
Your previous post states that "buyers all voted with their feet" and put their money into HC while other homes were on MLS for "ages" trying to prove that HC had more desirable floorplans/designs.
The facts show that QH and the Turtles sold quite a few homes in the same time frame despite not having the advantage of being able to build as needed.
You are ignoring the fact that *new* is more the reason than any type of awesome design that HC has.
irvinehomeowner said:
We can debate this ad nauseam but everything is not black and white as people with strong personal opinions seem to think. There are always pros and cons to everything.
"Buyers voting with their $$ " is just fact. 250 home sales at HC (or whatever the exact number is) is simple math -- draining a potential pool of buyers from other sellers at similar price points - why is this common sensical item so hard to understand ?
"Buyers voting with their $$ " found these floor plans superior to the other layouts such that they chose to ignore other supposed deficiencies like the tract home nature. Otherwise what has changed ? same schools , similar proximity, similar terraced elevations. Except the guard gated. Anyone can paint their home for a few $$ bucks and get that new paint smell. it is by itself not enough to propel people to buy something
I come back to my Northwood example, One reason homes are still selling here is the zoning of NW high that the newer homes don't have access the way districts are drawn now. This neighborhood took an initial hit in terms of slow sales and prices when nearby new communities opened but then the buyer pool that cared about schools has come back w the pickup in sales again. Lack of new home smell not withstanding .
I am personally surprised at the success of HC , I had totally not expected these price points to move this quickly. But the fact is it did happen. Rather than denying it , it is a learning opportunity to see what Toll did right and what they may have done wrong (we will know in the future).
irvinehomeshopper
Well-known member
I knew why I stayed away from all of the Toll brothers thread. Its more toxic than YF's chart.
The homes Toll Brothers puts out is disgusting. Terrible proportions of classical orders. Looking at the website I got dizzy. The freaking place looks like Toontown. The people who prefers it are like the Donalds opps I mean Donald Duck. Bad taste all the way around and its true that money can't buy good taste.
The homes Toll Brothers puts out is disgusting. Terrible proportions of classical orders. Looking at the website I got dizzy. The freaking place looks like Toontown. The people who prefers it are like the Donalds opps I mean Donald Duck. Bad taste all the way around and its true that money can't buy good taste.
marmott
Active member
Taste aside what is the alternative today in Irvine? Because people who spend HC kind of money could go in other nearby cities but they chose Irvine.
I'm far from considering buying something as expensive as HC but I know I want to stay in Irvine. I'm perfectly happy with "boring" neighborhood and no zipline. As for current designs I live in my house so for me floorplan and volumes inside are more important that how it can look from the outside.
I'm genuinly curious, not trying to be YF
I'm far from considering buying something as expensive as HC but I know I want to stay in Irvine. I'm perfectly happy with "boring" neighborhood and no zipline. As for current designs I live in my house so for me floorplan and volumes inside are more important that how it can look from the outside.
I'm genuinly curious, not trying to be YF
zubs
Well-known member
irvinehomeshopper said:
I generally like TB designs and finishes. Their tract home designs still look better when compared to others. What's so ugly about them? For instance, my relative lives in a TB home in Yorba Linda from the 90s. The curbside appeal is still really nice. These are the homes in the hills off of gypsum canyon.
zubs said:
Lets look at the bright side. Less headache for parents as kids won't drag them to Disneyland every now and then. Look sweetie, we are already in toon town - maybe Mickey will pop his head from between the 5-foot setback : ). I wonder why Toll is not charging for that as an upgrade option.