Which Irvine village offers best value for investment property?

[panda]

ACF,

I will try not to derail so much from our discussion about real estate, but I wanted to show you through FOREX where we are in macro economic cycle in terms of deflation, inflation, or stagflation. I will try to explain this in very simply terms. As you can see we currently in a bear market rally in the U.S. Dollar. Usually the dollar rally cycle lasts about 6 years, and the dollar decline cycle lasts about 9-10 years.

As you can see from the charts below, both the Korean Won and Indian Rupees have lost more than 20% purchasing power in the U.S. As the U.S. dollar strengthen and passes the 100 index point where we are close to that number today, shows that we are heading in a deflationary cycle which lines up with the bay area housing market cycle correction that will last between 2-3 years.

I guess numbers of FCB will also decrease from now on.
Here is a few factors affect China FCB:
1. China economy is not that good and show a sign of decline. (GDP fell below 7%)
2. Government restrict money flow out of China.
3. Stock market crush.
4. When is the golden time for corrupt money enter USA for investment?
    The last few years when a Chairman hold his postion.

thanks panda. One wild card for you. Do you feel that foreign cash will distort/keep things more stable in Irvine seeing as how much of the housing bought here seems to be purchased this way?

 

[panda]

Paydawg,
I know that redfin is very popular in California, but redfin is not very ideal to search for homes in the Atlanta market.

I would recommend you search homes via www.zillow.com or www.harrynorman.com. A great search feature on harry norman's website is that you can search homes by high school clusters. Below are the top 10 best high schools in the state and all of them including schools in Johns Creek are 10-10-10 rated schools according to greatschool.org.

https://k12.niche.com/rankings/public-high-schools/best-overall/s/georgia/    <- High School Ranking in Georgiahttp://www.schooldigger.com<- great resource for school ranking, test scores, and demographics profile data of students.

My primary residence resides right in between the Northview HS cluster (property taxes 1.4%) and Lambert HS cluster (property taxes 0.9%), but the on the Lambert side. Northview HS became an Asian majority high school in 2012. My prediction is that Lambert's student demographic profile will look very similar to that of Northview 2014 profile in about 10 years.

Aquabliss,

Are you sure it is not $1500 - $2000 a year? $1500 to $2000 / month seems a bit off. Do you have the subdivision and address you are looking at? Even the gated and private golf course communities with a 24 hour guard would have an HOA between $2000 - $2500 a year.

Oops, looks like Redfins screw up.  Here's one example:https://www.redfin.com/GA/Johns-Creek/2200-Ascott-Valley-Trce-30097/home/24815183

Says HOA is $167/mo paid annually but if you look at the same listing on the Redfin mobile app, shows the following:

OMG you could get a mansion in JC for $900k!  And with so much character, mouldings, tray ceilings. Those look like million dollar homes vs our match box cookie cutter Irvine homes that are way over priced. Why is the market driving up Irvine home prices again?? Damn you FCBs and TIC...

What's up with the schools in JC?  The high school (per the Redfin site) got a 2-star rating. 

 

[Cornflakes]

Panda,

Do you know any website where you can search for properties with potential Cap Rate? My current process is very crude where I look at zillow listing and rent zestimate. But those are one-ny-one calculation. Wish there was a site that can let you search for x% cap rate properties.

 

[panda]

Cornflakes,

Cap rate is calculated by net operating income / cost of the property. I have always calculated the CAP on either excel or my financial calculator but I do not know of any website off hand. There was one website I remember that posted the Adjusted Gross Yield by county which is also called the "Gross Cap" . The Gross Cap is calculated by rent x 12 / cost of property. I mostly use the cash flow proforma analysis and the Gross Cap rate to compare deals in my area.

What particular area you currently looking at for the CAP rates?