When would be next housing Bottom?
- Thread starter OCLuvr
- Start date
Irvinecommuter
New member
Happiness said:
I can't claim to be a mainlander but I have worked with quite a few...was in-house at a Chinese startup for awhile. Have also worked in quite a few case involving EB-5 investment scams and schemes.
Still SSS
Happiness said:
I doubt any real mainlanders are on an english language forum.
anyone want to pipe up and prove me wrong?
I get the feeling that most of the Asians on here are actually Asian Americans. (1.5 gen or more) and have a very different point of view than real recent immigrants/expats.
newbieinirvine
New member
USCTrojanCPA said:OCLuvr said:
Someone forgot to forward that article to the 2 FCBs that bought my two most recent listings.
How are they getting the cash into the country (assuming they paid all-cash)?
So much for the theory that housing is not a leading indicator ...
Housing stocks moved first , housing volumes moved first (as correctly pointed out by many others on this forum ) earlier this year ..
But seeing the recent price action in toll brothers stock (outperformed the market now , despite the bad numbers ) , we may be bottoming out here on a forward looking basis .
Housing stocks moved first , housing volumes moved first (as correctly pointed out by many others on this forum ) earlier this year ..
But seeing the recent price action in toll brothers stock (outperformed the market now , despite the bad numbers ) , we may be bottoming out here on a forward looking basis .
newbieinirvine said:USCTrojanCPA said:OCLuvr said:
Someone forgot to forward that article to the 2 FCBs that bought my two most recent listings.
How are they getting the cash into the country (assuming they paid all-cash)?
Chinese P2P lending then into Bitcoin. Both have imploded, and now you see articles coming out of Seattle, etc how the foreign money has dried up. We're running on fumes at this point.
newbieinirvine said:
It's still legal to transfer money out of china , but it has gotten much more restrictive. Prior to July of 2017, each Chinese person can legally transfer 50k USD every year out of China legally. Now every transaction over 7k needs to be reported and triggers an automatic audit.
Since 2017, you also have to file extra paperwork in which you have to specify that this fund is for not being used to buy foreign real estate,stock,life insurance etc or face massive fines and have accounts frozen.
Majority of Chinese FCBs use illegal underground money services. The cost is high tho. We've heard as high as 25%.
Most common illegal ways to do it yourself
1) Obtain Chinese Hong Kong status. Hong Kong accounts are much less regulated.
2) Move it bit by bit by involving friends and family. You can still legally move foreign currency in small transaction, up to total 50k a year, to 4 or less foreign account and still avoid an audit. If you have 4 friends/family with US accounts and each of them have 4 friends/family with foreign accounts, you can move 1 million out of china per year. This part is obviously illegal.
3) A lot of Chinese bank issued debit cards that do not have foreign transaction limits. A lot of people buy luxury goods in US and resell or return them for cash.
4) Fly the cash out. The legal limit is 5k USD when you fly into US but people often risk it by putting more cash in checked luggage.
irvinehomeowner said:
Woodbridge prices are amazingly high compared to? I saw a few in Woodbridge that barely appreciated from 2014.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/4-Woodspring-92604/unit-47/home/5510109
Feb 2014 850k bought
Nov 2018 898k sold
The owner probably barely broke even or maybe even took a small loss when you factor in the commission and transaction cost.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
This what I would refer to as, using the negatives environments in rates, as it moves higher to negotiate for favorable pricing for buyers. Using to seasonal slow down and national slow down to gain the upper hands on pricing. Using the negativity of owning to get better pricing. Clearly, this buyers know what they are doing.
Congrat!!! The values of Irvine homes are still there. No dooms days scenario here. On the other hands, looks at what happening in the equity market. Large institutions pulling and cashing out in droves. Where are they putting that money for safe keeping?
Congrat!!! The values of Irvine homes are still there. No dooms days scenario here. On the other hands, looks at what happening in the equity market. Large institutions pulling and cashing out in droves. Where are they putting that money for safe keeping?
Compressed-Village said:
Im a bit unclear about what you are saying here. Are you suggesting higher interest rates will put downward pressures on home prices?
Also what do you mean by "using seasonal slow down and national slowdown to gain upper hands on pricing?" Are you suggesting the buyer bought during a slow season and when housing is slowing all over the country to get a better deal on this house?
How do you know if the buyer used "negativity of owning" to get better pricing. Do you know the buyer of that house?
shahshah said:
I am sure SFR in woodbridge did better than the attached home I posted. But that's the norm everywhere. Woodbridge also has much more attached homes than SFRs. Price of attached homes are not irrelevant.
I was questioning IHO's claim that woodbrige has a particular Caucasian demographic that keeps Woodbridge prices "amazingly high"
Which is why I asked what he was comparing woodbridge to. From what I've seen, Woodbridge has under-performed every surrounding villages except Walnut/El Camino.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
meccos12 said:
It mean to get what you want for the least competition and rooms for price improvements. Or in your case just wait, until the herds rushing in again and compete for the house that you want.
Compressed-Village said:
Oh OK, so you mean that this buyer took market conditions and bargained the seller down to a price he wanted? Huh, what a concept. Also I had no idea that prices would drop if interest rates went up until you pointed that out. Who would have ever thunk?!?
I particularly like the comment about how the "buyer knows what he/she is doing" because the buyer used "negativity of owning". WTF?
Guys , the state of things is ? we fluctuate between FOMO / greed and FEAR . Right now is the FEAR phase but once FOMO kicks in , some buyers will look back on this period as when they could have had a lot more choice and negotiating power .
The full impact of personal situations given tax laws won?t actually be known until you actual end up filing those taxes - people think they know and can project but until you sign the line and actually look at the final taxes , the psychological impact is still TBD. we will see how market shapes for next summer at that time.
The full impact of personal situations given tax laws won?t actually be known until you actual end up filing those taxes - people think they know and can project but until you sign the line and actually look at the final taxes , the psychological impact is still TBD. we will see how market shapes for next summer at that time.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Kenkoko said:
As shahshah said, you have to look deeper. And yes, I'm more referring to SFRs, if you compare size/age to other hoods in Irvine, you will be "amazed" at the prices... at least I was.
We used to live in Woodbridge, and when I went to see what homes were going for (esp 3CWG), I was "amazed". And while Woodbridge does have many attached homes, some of those are high because of proximity to the flakes.
Not sure how you are getting that conclusion. What were you looking at that supports that "under-performance" because I've been tracking Woodbridge for the last 10-15 years and for SFRs, they seem to skew higher than like-age areas like Northwood, Deerfield and Westpark I. Just like Irvine, central location and the flakes provide a premium. You could find several 3CGW homes in Northwood during the trough in the low $800ks, much harder to do that in Woodbridge.