When would be next housing Bottom?

[eyephone]

We need to kick off and restart the environmental thread!

 

[zubs]

  The rep literally said "we have enough boba shops"

But not enuff corean bbqs!!!!! amirite?

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Again, I ask you to please fact check your claims.

There is currently more than 250k Japanese in LA. Only about 100k Taiwanese.

Note...I said Japanese immigrants.  Between 1986 and 2016, 194,969 Japanese immigrated to the US.  By comparison, 289,966 Taiwanese, 691,668 South Koreans, and 1,703,930 Mainland Chinese.

Also...there are 137K Japanese in the Greater LA area...60K Taiwanese.  Considering Japan has 6X the population of Taiwan...Taiwan has 2x the representation of Japan.

27% of Japanese-American are foreign born and 84% of them speak English fluently.

64% of Japanese immigrants have been in the US for more than 10 years.
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/fact-sheet/asian-americans-japanese-in-the-u-s/

There were 5,088 Japanese in Irvine in 2000...6,474 in 2010...that is not a significant increase.

Since you are from Taiwan as I am, I find it very surprising that you did not mention Hualien City. You picked 2 seemingly random areas (not even a city) next to Taipei (capitol of Taiwan for those who are not familiar) to illustrate your point. If you ask 100 Taiwanese person, probably 90 will tell you Hualien is heaven on earth. Having lived there for 2 years myself, I would say it's every bit as clean and open as Irvine.

Just about anyone from Taiwan knows YangMing Shan and Neihu...they are the ultra posh areas of Taipei. 

Hualien is 3 hours outside of Taipei!  That's not a suburb. 

Clean is not just about weather or environment.  "Clean" means well-zoned, master-planned, nice parks, nice looking homes.  Almost all of Taiwan is a mix of old and new construction...and most people still live in multi-level condos.  You have a combination of old streets/alley mix with major roads.  It's basically LA/urban style living.

I love visiting Taipei and all its awesome food and streets but let's not pretend that it's anywhere close to Irvine.  You still have wild dogs roaming in Taipei and lots of not so clean alleyways.  I also much rather raise my family in Irvine than Taipei.

compare a shot of Hualien:

Those are just not the same.  Living in a 5-10 story condo is not the same as living in a SFR.

Still waiting for an explanation to your claim that Irvine has no polution.

Seriously...are you Sith?  Do we deal in absolutes here?  I am sure there are great and unpolluted areas in China as well but that's not what we are talking about. 

 

[zubs]

I remember a friend coming back from Taiwan.  She hated that you go out in a white shirt and when you come back it's gray....
Must be lovely for your lungs.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

I remember a friend coming back from Taiwan.  She hated that you go out in a white shirt and when you come back it's gray....
Must be lovely for your lungs.

Taipei is not too bad cause it gets a lot of rain but there is a lot of motorcycle/scooter pollution.  There is a reason why people wear surgical masks all the time there (other than when they are sick).

It is also super moldy cause it's in the subtropics.

 

[Mety]

I remember a friend coming back from Taiwan.  She hated that you go out in a white shirt and when you come back it's gray....
Must be lovely for your lungs.

Are TCE toxic plume and the yuge landfill any better?

Which pollution would you prefer?
The one you can see and the one you can't see.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

I remember a friend coming back from Taiwan.  She hated that you go out in a white shirt and when you come back it's gray....
Must be lovely for your lungs.

Are TCE toxic plume and the yuge landfill any better?

Which pollution would you prefer?
The one you can see and the one you can't see.

Seriously...you have got to be kidding me. 

1)  You assume that the water in Asia are clean and pristine?  You don't think there are ton of toxins in Asian cities? 
2)  Landfills?  Really?  There are no landfill in China, Taiwan, Korea, or Japan?
3)  Go compare the air quality of Shanghai, Beijing, or any major Chinese city with Irvine. 
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/...-lollies-taiwan-taipei-contaminated-waterways
https://www.nature.com/articles/35050266
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...e-worried-about-air-pollution-than-kims-nukes
http://isdp.eu/publication/south-koreas-air-pollution-gasping-solutions/
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/e...tected-at-tokyos-new-tsukiji-fish-market-site
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport...-open-air-treatment-controversy-a8595116.html

 

[Mety]

I remember a friend coming back from Taiwan.  She hated that you go out in a white shirt and when you come back it's gray....
Must be lovely for your lungs.

Are TCE toxic plume and the yuge landfill any better?

Which pollution would you prefer?
The one you can see and the one you can't see.

Seriously...you have got to be kidding me. 

1)  You assume that the water in Asia are clean and pristine?  You don't think there are ton of toxins in Asian cities? 
2)  Landfills?  Really?  There are no landfill in China, Taiwan, Korea, or Japan?
3)  Go compare the air quality of Shanghai, Beijing, or any major Chinese city with Irvine.

Yeah, I'm kidding you. Why so serious?

 

[Irvinecommuter]

I remember a friend coming back from Taiwan.  She hated that you go out in a white shirt and when you come back it's gray....
Must be lovely for your lungs.

Are TCE toxic plume and the yuge landfill any better?

Which pollution would you prefer?
The one you can see and the one you can't see.

Seriously...you have got to be kidding me. 

1)  You assume that the water in Asia are clean and pristine?  You don't think there are ton of toxins in Asian cities? 
2)  Landfills?  Really?  There are no landfill in China, Taiwan, Korea, or Japan?
3)  Go compare the air quality of Shanghai, Beijing, or any major Chinese city with Irvine.

Yeah, I'm kidding you. Why so serious?

sorry...getting worked up. 

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Are you saying if you were to do the same now, TIC will allow it?

I think they would be much more open to the idea.  Before, it was a fad to them.

Look at the number of Asian restaurants opening up in TIC malls.  Culver Plaza is almost completely Asian, Northpark and Cypress Village are as well.  Weirdly enough, Woodbury is still pretty mixed.

 

[Kenkoko]

Note...I said Japanese immigrants.  Between 1986 and 2016, 194,969 Japanese immigrated to the US.  By comparison, 289,966 Taiwanese, 691,668 South Koreans, and 1,703,930 Mainland Chinese.

So 289k is significant and 198k is not ? It's difficult to frame the discussion with you since you are constantly cherry picking stats.

Just about anyone from Taiwan knows YangMing Shan and Neihu...they are the ultra posh areas of Taipei. 

Not true. The best area of Taipei is Xinyi District. It's also master planned. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinyi_District,_Taipei

Hualien is 3 hours outside of Taipei!  That's not a suburb. 

How does that disqualify Hualien exactly? It's a beautiful city with more than 100k people. It's a shame that Taiwan gets reduced to having nothing outside of Taipei.

 

[Kenkoko]

Also...there are 137K Japanese in the Greater LA area...60K Taiwanese.  Considering Japan has 6X the population of Taiwan...Taiwan has 2x the representation of Japan.

Another example where you are cherry picking stats to illustrate your point.

You said you want to talk about Mainland Chinese. Run the numbers using Chinese immigrants in LA and the population of China. That would make them even less relevant than Japan according to your valuation.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Xinyi is the business district...it was redesigned around Taipei 101 but it is hardly seen as a pure residential area.  Of course, that has nothing to do with YangMing Shan or Neihu. 

And again...Xinyi is an urban environment....not comparable to Irvine.

How does that disqualify Hualien exactly? It's a beautiful city with more than 100k people. It's a shame that Taiwan gets reduced to having nothing outside of Taipei.

Considering you can go from Taipei to Kaoshung in like 5 hours, being 3 hours outside of Taipei does not make Hualian a suburb. 

Greater Taipei has 7 million people...9 million if you include Taoyuan.  That's about 40% of the population of Taiwan.  Taipei is also seen as the cultural, governmental, and technological center of Taiwan.  Raising Hualian as an example would be like saying Yunnan is beautiful and question why people in Beijing or Shanghai wants to move to the US.

Edit:  Hualien is also on the hurricane side of Taiwan...it's why there are very few people living on the eastern side of Taiwan.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Also...there are 137K Japanese in the Greater LA area...60K Taiwanese.  Considering Japan has 6X the population of Taiwan...Taiwan has 2x the representation of Japan.

Another example where you are cherry picking stats to illustrate your point.

You said you want to talk about Mainland Chinese. Run the numbers using Chinese immigrants in LA and the population of China. That would make them even less relevant than Japan according to your valuation.

Yeah...I'm not even going to compare immigration policies of PRC and viability of people able to move to that of Japan and Taiwan. 

Also, since the bulk of Japanese immigration was pre-1980s while the bulk of Taiwanese immigration of in the 1980s and 1990s, I am not sure why we are discussing this with respect to recent change in Irvine.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Kenkoko...I am not sure what exactly you are fighting about.  There is a lot of things to love about East Asia (China, Japan, Taiwan, and S.K.) but there are also a lot of issues (most notably pollution, density, weather, and inflexible/outdated education system).  Those issues are what immigrants are trying to get away from.

PRC has its own special set of issues as to why people want to leave there, especially if you have the resources to buy property in the US.

 

[Mety]

Are you saying if you were to do the same now, TIC will allow it?

I think they would be much more open to the idea.  Before, it was a fad to them.

Look at the number of Asian restaurants opening up in TIC malls.  Culver Plaza is almost completely Asian, Northpark and Cypress Village are as well.  Weirdly enough, Woodbury is still pretty mixed.

Good points. I think TIC limits what retails to come very conservatively. I wish they accept more boutique shops, but like you said, NP and CV plazas do have those while WB town center has only nationalized ones. Maybe different authorizers?

 

[Kenkoko]

Kenkoko...I am not sure what exactly you are fighting about.  There is a lot of things to love about East Asia (China, Japan, Taiwan, and S.K.) but there are also a lot of issues (most notably pollution, density, weather, and inflexible/outdated education system).  Those issues are what immigrants are trying to get away from.

PRC has its own special set of issues as to why people want to leave there, especially if you have the resources to buy property in the US.

Irvinecommuter, I not sure why you think I am fighting. I agree with a lot of stuff that?s being said. I do disagree with using a big blanket statement like using a city to compare to a continent. I also disagree with you cherry-picking data. It?s already difficult to do a fair apple to apple comparison with set premises. It?s impossible when you decide to hand pick this stat but not the other.

I jumped in when IHO was being questioned by others for his take on Irvine only dropping 10-15% and you started listing numbers from surrounding cities showing Irvine being more price resilient. I felt using data from surrounding cities (also Las Vegas and Scottdale) were rather pointless because the demographics are so different from Irvine.

I felt we should be looking at cities with more similar demographics to Irvine and sure enough you see more similarities. You can cherry pick numbers for Irvine and Diamond Bar but even with the cherry-picked math, the downward price resilience in areas like DB/Walnut/Arcadia/etc still more very much mirror Irvine. Much more than MissionV/Aliso/LakeForest/etc.


We can at least agree that FCBs are big factor, right? IHO brought up a good question. How do we break down the demographics? It?s rather difficult and any analysis/conclusion will be anecdotal.

First you must decide what ?Chinese? includes. For example, I am from Taiwan and my wife is from Hong Kong we are both under the ?Chinese? category when it comes to any official stats but that?s hardly accurate for the discussion at hand. I started High School in Arcadia in the early 90s and school statistic would say we have 35% Chinese. But, we barely had 50 students that are really from China. (about 4000 students total)
Non-mainlander behaves drastically different from Mainlander when it comes to real estate.

Non-mainlander mostly came during the 80s,90s, and early 00s. Tends to have roots set down and raised families. Tends to treat Real estate more conservatively and cares about cap rate. Very conservative when it comes to homebuying power. Rarely buying up to LTV limits. Rarely see homes left empty. Very much affective by the state of the US economy. Enters and exits market like other Americans. 

Mainlander mostly came after mid-2000s. Tends to be solo, just wife with kid, no extended family. Tends to treat RE as a safety deposit box caring about liquidity not cap rate. Often see homes left empty. Willing to buy wtf price homes. Not very much affected by the state of the US economy. Enters and exit markets completely different from other Americans.

You can look at different Irvine villages and get somewhat of a feel. Older villages like University Park, Turtle rock you have much more non-mainlander. From about Woodbury on, you get more and more % of mainlanders. Woodbury is famous in Chinese circle as the ?mistress village? where Chinese business men stash their concubines.

Up to this point, mainlanders have mostly been great for Irvine real estate. The only downside I can think of is the high prices pushing more non FCBs to buy close or at their financial limits. This and possible mass exit by Mainlanders could be the next instability factor when we do have a downturn.

The subject of the thread is when the next housing bottom would be. I think it?s more and more likely now that we will have a US slowdown that coincided with a China meltdown. The inverted yield curve and the recent china economy numbers are looking bleak.

 

[Kenkoko]

I posted a poll on my FB asking my TW friends to pick the most posh area of Taipei.

So far the return is 47 Xinyi District, 6 YangMing Shan, and 1  Neihu.

>

 

[eyephone]

I posted a poll on my FB asking my TW friends to pick the most posh area of Taipei.

So far the return is 47 Xinyi District, 6 YangMing Shan, and 1  Neihu.

>

#TaiwaneseTalk

 

[Irvinecommuter]

I posted a poll on my FB asking my TW friends to pick the most posh area of Taipei.

So far the return is 47 Xinyi District, 6 YangMing Shan, and 1  Neihu.

>

Again...you are comparing Downtown LA with Beverly Hills or Malibu...completely different areas and lifestyles.