IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
Prices were going up the other day when you made your day trade. That hasn't been the direction of the larger trend.
What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too
- Thread starter ipoplaya_IHB
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Prices were going up the other day when you made your day trade. That hasn't been the direction of the larger trend.
I know, I'm just pissed that it appears I sold myself both too late and now too early. Moving to a more costly housing expense situation AND having prices rise up on me is not a good combination...
And speaking of the larger trend, I just added another 7 properties to my escrow list. Apparently it was a good day for Cal Pac detached cluster plan 3's. One in my old tract and one in TR Arborel both hit escrow today.
What is amazing is that back in Summer 2007 my friends sold their plan 4 (1750sf) condo in my tract. Got $710K. They bought in AV for $925K. Their same model in Irvine sells today for $680K while their same model in AV just went for $740K. So 3% drop on their old Irvine place while over the same period their new AV digs fall 18%? That's just plain crazy...
I'm sure they had the champagne chillin'.
Put the flute glasses back in the cabinet to collect some more dust.
I have been watching your emotional gyrations over the last year. You pay a heavy price for watching the moment-to-moment activity of the market. I am glad that you watch so closely, as you provide valuable information to everyone here, but the ups and downs must be hard on you at times. Even though I profile properties each day, I don't pay too much attention to what happens to the day-to-day transactions. If I did, I would probably second guess myself a lot and take a ride on the emotional roller coaster as well. I keep my eye on the macro, and until I quit finding properties that confirm the poor market conditions and overall trend, I will not worry about what knife catchers do. The market psychology changes slowly, and those active in the market today clearly are living in 2006. By 2010, the psychology will have changed, and I may start paying more attention to the transactions as I get ready to buy.
I do have some major old ones fumbling. Not sure what is up with them. I go back and check them every week and their status still says backup offers. Maybe they have fallen out and the realtor didn't update? Not really sure. I have seen a few close after ridiculously long periods in escrow. Most end up as withdraw or canceled though.
It does wear at times, peering into almost practically every single transaction in the city. The lack of downward movement over the past six months, especially the last couple since I sold my place, is frustrating to me. I am indeed constantly on the lookout for signs of further erosion. Last year at this time, nothing was moving. That preceded some chunky Fall/Winter price declines that I would really love to see again...
I don't know if I can keep my wife out of an owned home for more than our one-year lease. She is dying to get into our semi-permanent place and may not be willing to term up for another year. My oldest starts kindegarten next year and my wife really would like to be settled by then somewhere. Frankly, I don't know if even I'd be willing to uproot our kids again and move to another rental house for one more year.
If our landlord doesn't want to re-lease our house to us, I expect I've got pretty much no chance of not buying something come late Spring / early Summer. I want our efforts with regards to my sale, move, etc. to produce some economic gain at least. So far, it has just meant more spend and some extra square footage. If the overall market or even my old neighborhood had come down even 5%, I'd feel a whole lot better about the energy I poured into the effort. Hopefully that time comes sooner rather than later so I can rest a little easier about it...
Probably quicker for you to PM IrvineRealtor. He supplies me with my data and has been quite helpful to others with similar needs...
From a buyers standpoint, hopefully all of the negative economic / stock market meltdown woes will cause sellers to be more realistic in pricing or at least increase their motivation to cut prices further.
Credit’s tightened up, so the buyer pool is shrinking.
Your French chateau on Mar Vista went pending ten. List of $950K. What's your guess on closing price?
It’s nice to see 3,000 sq. foot properties in Northpark under $1M.
Haven’t followed Mar Vista, or that segment of the market.
Don't know where it will close, the lower the better though.
Waiting to see where Fair Oaks and Paso Robles close.
Those are the types of homes I'm interested in purchasing.
For my market (Costa Mesa), appx 20% of sales over the past 6 months (100+ sales) have taken more than 3 months from the start of escrow to sale date. Appx 50% have been closing within one month.
The CM CS index has been stuck at ~180 since early spring, but dropped to ~170 last month. I'm really curious to see the data from the next three months, as I expect that we might reach CS150 by the first of the year.
Damn, 7 Green Hollow closed for $1.1M. Only 10.5% off its 2006 purchase price. And people wonder why I bash VoC...
Sounds like a familiar pattern. My October numbers are showing price increase though, of almost 3% over September, but the sample is still pretty small.
Prices were going up the other day when you made your day trade. That hasn't been the direction of the larger trend.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
IrvineRenter said:
I know, I'm just pissed that it appears I sold myself both too late and now too early. Moving to a more costly housing expense situation AND having prices rise up on me is not a good combination...
And speaking of the larger trend, I just added another 7 properties to my escrow list. Apparently it was a good day for Cal Pac detached cluster plan 3's. One in my old tract and one in TR Arborel both hit escrow today.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
IrvineRenter said:
What is amazing is that back in Summer 2007 my friends sold their plan 4 (1750sf) condo in my tract. Got $710K. They bought in AV for $925K. Their same model in Irvine sells today for $680K while their same model in AV just went for $740K. So 3% drop on their old Irvine place while over the same period their new AV digs fall 18%? That's just plain crazy...
PURPLEHAZE_IHB
New member
Just a theory: The remaining funny money in the market needs a place to travel to - the next productive and safe opportunity AKA Irvine housing. I think Irvine will get hit harder if it is speculators who are quickly swallowing all the opportunities in Irvine. These are the knife catchers who will learn a hard lesson in economics when the rest of the county and region slows down to a grinding halt. Greed is definitely one of the gates to hell (Bhagavad Gita) and this downturn will be a lesson in sobriety.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
Looks like the stock market declines are finally having an effect on escrow activity in Irvine. I just found 7 escrows that fell through since last week. These were all within the 17-day contingency period so it would appear 7 buyers got cold feet all in the same week... Has to be the market/economy that put the freeze on them. That ratio of cancels is exorbitantly high compared to historical measures of cold feet on Irvine buyers.
CalGal_IHB
New member
I wouldn't want to be the sellers right now.ipoplaya said:
I'm sure they had the champagne chillin'.
Put the flute glasses back in the cabinet to collect some more dust.
fumbling_IHB
New member
Ipo, you show a handful of escrows (3 or 4) that started back in June/July, why wouldn't they have closed by now? Are they still likely to go through?
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
I have been watching your emotional gyrations over the last year. You pay a heavy price for watching the moment-to-moment activity of the market. I am glad that you watch so closely, as you provide valuable information to everyone here, but the ups and downs must be hard on you at times. Even though I profile properties each day, I don't pay too much attention to what happens to the day-to-day transactions. If I did, I would probably second guess myself a lot and take a ride on the emotional roller coaster as well. I keep my eye on the macro, and until I quit finding properties that confirm the poor market conditions and overall trend, I will not worry about what knife catchers do. The market psychology changes slowly, and those active in the market today clearly are living in 2006. By 2010, the psychology will have changed, and I may start paying more attention to the transactions as I get ready to buy.
nefron_IHB
New member
ipo, there are some Irvine properties I've watched go off of the market in the past couple of months or so, that the MLS lists as pending sale, but I don't see them on your list. If I give you the addresses can you tell me what's up with them?
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
fumbling said:
I do have some major old ones fumbling. Not sure what is up with them. I go back and check them every week and their status still says backup offers. Maybe they have fallen out and the realtor didn't update? Not really sure. I have seen a few close after ridiculously long periods in escrow. Most end up as withdraw or canceled though.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
IrvineRenter said:
It does wear at times, peering into almost practically every single transaction in the city. The lack of downward movement over the past six months, especially the last couple since I sold my place, is frustrating to me. I am indeed constantly on the lookout for signs of further erosion. Last year at this time, nothing was moving. That preceded some chunky Fall/Winter price declines that I would really love to see again...
I don't know if I can keep my wife out of an owned home for more than our one-year lease. She is dying to get into our semi-permanent place and may not be willing to term up for another year. My oldest starts kindegarten next year and my wife really would like to be settled by then somewhere. Frankly, I don't know if even I'd be willing to uproot our kids again and move to another rental house for one more year.
If our landlord doesn't want to re-lease our house to us, I expect I've got pretty much no chance of not buying something come late Spring / early Summer. I want our efforts with regards to my sale, move, etc. to produce some economic gain at least. So far, it has just meant more spend and some extra square footage. If the overall market or even my old neighborhood had come down even 5%, I'd feel a whole lot better about the energy I poured into the effort. Hopefully that time comes sooner rather than later so I can rest a little easier about it...
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
nefron said:
Probably quicker for you to PM IrvineRealtor. He supplies me with my data and has been quite helpful to others with similar needs...
CalGal_IHB
New member
IR2 rocks! He's been really helpful and very knowledgeable.
nefron_IHB
New member
Thanks! Will do.
tenmagnet_IHB
New member
CalGal said:
From a buyers standpoint, hopefully all of the negative economic / stock market meltdown woes will cause sellers to be more realistic in pricing or at least increase their motivation to cut prices further.
Credit’s tightened up, so the buyer pool is shrinking.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
tenmagnet said:
Your French chateau on Mar Vista went pending ten. List of $950K. What's your guess on closing price?
tenmagnet_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
It’s nice to see 3,000 sq. foot properties in Northpark under $1M.
Haven’t followed Mar Vista, or that segment of the market.
Don't know where it will close, the lower the better though.
Waiting to see where Fair Oaks and Paso Robles close.
Those are the types of homes I'm interested in purchasing.
freedomCM_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
For my market (Costa Mesa), appx 20% of sales over the past 6 months (100+ sales) have taken more than 3 months from the start of escrow to sale date. Appx 50% have been closing within one month.
The CM CS index has been stuck at ~180 since early spring, but dropped to ~170 last month. I'm really curious to see the data from the next three months, as I expect that we might reach CS150 by the first of the year.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
tenmagnet said:
Damn, 7 Green Hollow closed for $1.1M. Only 10.5% off its 2006 purchase price. And people wonder why I bash VoC...
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
freedomCM said:
Sounds like a familiar pattern. My October numbers are showing price increase though, of almost 3% over September, but the sample is still pretty small.