The California Forecast
The California forecast, by economist Ryan Ratcliff, takes note of the state’s slowing real estate markets. Ratcliff concludes that the real estate slowdown will lead to a flat housing market and a slower economy.
“We do not predict a recession, nor do we predict a substantial decline in average nominal home prices,” Ratcliff says. “This forecast it based on two arguments. There is not enough vulnerability in the usual sources of employment loss to create a recession, and the historical record suggests that average home prices do not usually fall without this kind of job loss.”
As in the national forecast, Ratcliff is acknowledging declines in real estate and associated job losses in real estate-sensitive sectors. But absent job losses in manufacturing or other sectors, there will be no recession, he says.
Ratcliff does note the possibility of some downside risk to the forecast, however, due to the potential impact of exotic real estate financing and uncertainties about the effects of home prices on consumption