irvine123_IHB
New member
IR,
Do you think Thomas 's math is wrong? Which part of Thomas's statement is BS?
Do you think Thomas 's math is wrong? Which part of Thomas's statement is BS?
What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too
- Thread starter ipoplaya_IHB
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
I don't think his math is wrong, but his number is seasonal* and it's just as bad as it was last year, a year that saw massive price declines.
The BS part is the last paragraph. I find it really funny that we are constantly getting these fuzzy "new from the trenches" / "word on the street" / "I went to an open house and there were 20 people there" / "I know 6 DINK couples who are getting ready to buy" statements and then 2 months later, when the hard numbers come in from Dataquick, we see huge YOY drops. Don't listen to the hype; pay attention to the data.
* Yes, really. I know it's a ratio. But one number is more seasonal than the other, meaning the ratio itself is also seasonal.
Uh IR, price declines from Jan 2007 to July 2007 were a total of 3%... If its just as bad as last year at the same time, that would mean prices are falling much much slower than they did during the tail end of 2007 and early 2008.
I think Thomas's general point is probably a good and simple one. Buying activity has picked up significantly and is close to returning, from an inventory perpective, to pre-credit crunch levels. DOMs are decreasing. Sales volumes are going up. Late March data for Irvine shows sales are off 30% YOY. Inventory for Irvine is 11-12% less YOY at this time. When you mixed those two together, you don't exactly have a recipe for massive price declines... If these were all true, and the market was "normal", price declines could/would level out.
Declines aren't likely to level out though even with much lower inventory as the massive improvement in "market time" is all about the movement of REOs. As long as the banks continue to want to move these assets, unlike they did last year, we could easily have six months of inventory on the market but have month-over-month declines much greater than one would expect with that fairly stable amount of homes available. If and when all the NODs over the past few months turn into REOs, it'll blow Thomas's number out of the water. The fence-sitters will have purchased, buyer exhaustion will kick in, and we'll get the next leg of this correction started.
Yeah, I do most nights around this time...
Weird, homeseekers has two more places that hit escrow within the last few days as active again. Maybe there is some kind of serial purchase offerer that is getting buyers all psyched to sell and then not funding escrow?!
The count was 29, and 3 being in Irvine. The biggest discount today was about $250k off the NTS amount, and about a 40% discount on the Zestimate. Just glancing at the numbers, I would say that the average discount from the NTS amount is around $100k. Got cash? It is starting to get tempting.
Yes, Steve Thomas' numbers are misleading. If according to his numbers, foreclosures account for 7% of the market activity, and there are only 1060 foreclosures on the market, but there has been over 3500 foreclosures in the last six months, then yeah... his numbers are a bit off. He and sighburrdud over at the OCR blogs are drinking the same Kool-Aid. Sadly, they have access to the same data you and I do, and yet they don't use it to see how bad it is getting. I really feel sorry for anyone who will believe people like them.
I don't know bigmoney. Was the massive slowdown in sales last August and Septembr simply because it was summer?
Yes, in the spring, sales normally rise, but then again inventory normally rises substantially also. Since we have about the same inventory as late December does that mean it is still winter?
My point is that the question is too simple to be relevant.
Anything that gets people to stop listing at WTF pricing is a good thing. It's a baby step toward reality.
Yeah, I agree with you Ipop it’s too small.
There’s no picture so can’t comment on sexiness.
What is chi? Something to do with lack of appealing features i.e landscape
Thanks for the link
C’mon, Let’s face it reality is 13% off list on that old relic is still way overpriced.
Unless, you’re a fan of the hat-trick: old, dated, and over-priced.
You can read about chi here ten. Feng Shui is all about optimizing chi, not that I am much of a believer...
I regret asking, even though I know your trying to help.
My head started to hurt after reading just a few paragraphs.
Chi reminds me of a fraternity like Sigma Chi
Thanks anyway!
I'm on homeseekers right now and see 33 Triple Leaf still at $1.359M. MLS #S506898. 33 is not REO. Got their first NOD in mid March... Looks like 33 has around $1.36M in mortgages if they maxed their credit line.
50 Winding was supposed to have gone to auction earlier this month but realtytrac hasn't updated status. I don't know if it went back to the bank...
bigmoneysalsa_IHB
New member
irvine123 said:
I don't think his math is wrong, but his number is seasonal* and it's just as bad as it was last year, a year that saw massive price declines.
The BS part is the last paragraph. I find it really funny that we are constantly getting these fuzzy "new from the trenches" / "word on the street" / "I went to an open house and there were 20 people there" / "I know 6 DINK couples who are getting ready to buy" statements and then 2 months later, when the hard numbers come in from Dataquick, we see huge YOY drops. Don't listen to the hype; pay attention to the data.
* Yes, really. I know it's a ratio. But one number is more seasonal than the other, meaning the ratio itself is also seasonal.
irvine123_IHB
New member
the only reasons I asked this question is because the agent who represented me and half dozen people at work told me exactly the same thing. I have known her for 6 six years, and i am not in the market for real estate. Her business is doing ok. So she had no reasonable to BS me.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
bigmoneysalsa said:
Uh IR, price declines from Jan 2007 to July 2007 were a total of 3%... If its just as bad as last year at the same time, that would mean prices are falling much much slower than they did during the tail end of 2007 and early 2008.
I think Thomas's general point is probably a good and simple one. Buying activity has picked up significantly and is close to returning, from an inventory perpective, to pre-credit crunch levels. DOMs are decreasing. Sales volumes are going up. Late March data for Irvine shows sales are off 30% YOY. Inventory for Irvine is 11-12% less YOY at this time. When you mixed those two together, you don't exactly have a recipe for massive price declines... If these were all true, and the market was "normal", price declines could/would level out.
Declines aren't likely to level out though even with much lower inventory as the massive improvement in "market time" is all about the movement of REOs. As long as the banks continue to want to move these assets, unlike they did last year, we could easily have six months of inventory on the market but have month-over-month declines much greater than one would expect with that fairly stable amount of homes available. If and when all the NODs over the past few months turn into REOs, it'll blow Thomas's number out of the water. The fence-sitters will have purchased, buyer exhaustion will kick in, and we'll get the next leg of this correction started.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
Looks like 33 Triple Leaf went active again... Bummer for them.
lendingmaestro_IHB
New member
Ipop, I think you had a brain fart this evening!
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
lendingmaestro said:
Yeah, I do most nights around this time...
Weird, homeseekers has two more places that hit escrow within the last few days as active again. Maybe there is some kind of serial purchase offerer that is getting buyers all psyched to sell and then not funding escrow?!
bigmoneysalsa_IHB
New member
We will know one way or the other whether Thomas’s numbers mean much when the sales data and CS price indexes for this spring come out in a few months.
Um, isn't that simply because it's spring?ipoplaya said:
graphrix_IHB
New member
EvaLSeraphim said:
The count was 29, and 3 being in Irvine. The biggest discount today was about $250k off the NTS amount, and about a 40% discount on the Zestimate. Just glancing at the numbers, I would say that the average discount from the NTS amount is around $100k. Got cash? It is starting to get tempting.
Yes, Steve Thomas' numbers are misleading. If according to his numbers, foreclosures account for 7% of the market activity, and there are only 1060 foreclosures on the market, but there has been over 3500 foreclosures in the last six months, then yeah... his numbers are a bit off. He and sighburrdud over at the OCR blogs are drinking the same Kool-Aid. Sadly, they have access to the same data you and I do, and yet they don't use it to see how bad it is getting. I really feel sorry for anyone who will believe people like them.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
bigmoneysalsa said:
I don't know bigmoney. Was the massive slowdown in sales last August and Septembr simply because it was summer?
Yes, in the spring, sales normally rise, but then again inventory normally rises substantially also. Since we have about the same inventory as late December does that mean it is still winter?
My point is that the question is too simple to be relevant.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
Got a closing price for Woodbridge wanna-bes. 15 Fairdawn in at $1.12M, $359 per sf, which was an astounding 13.7% below low list. Not that big a rollback though...
EvaLSeraphim_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
Anything that gets people to stop listing at WTF pricing is a good thing. It's a baby step toward reality.
tenmagnet_IHB
New member
This one is scheduled for auction next week ten. 100% financing deal gone bad... So small and unsexy though. Plus, I hate darn corner lots. Bad chi you know
Yeah, I agree with you Ipop it’s too small.
There’s no picture so can’t comment on sexiness.
What is chi? Something to do with lack of appealing features i.e landscape
Thanks for the link
tenmagnet_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
C’mon, Let’s face it reality is 13% off list on that old relic is still way overpriced.
Unless, you’re a fan of the hat-trick: old, dated, and over-priced.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
tenmagnet said:This one is scheduled for auction next week ten. 100% financing deal gone bad... So small and unsexy though. Plus, I hate darn corner lots. Bad chi you know
Yeah, I agree with you Ipop it’s too small.
There’s no picture so can’t comment on sexiness.
What is chi? Something to do with lack of appealing features i.e landscape
Thanks for the link
You can read about chi here ten. Feng Shui is all about optimizing chi, not that I am much of a believer...
tenmagnet_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:tenmagnet said:This one is scheduled for auction next week ten. 100% financing deal gone bad... So small and unsexy though. Plus, I hate darn corner lots. Bad chi you know
Yeah, I agree with you Ipop it’s too small.
There’s no picture so can’t comment on sexiness.
What is chi? Something to do with lack of appealing features i.e landscape
Thanks for the link
You can read about chi here ten. Feng Shui is all about optimizing chi, not that I am much of a believer...
I regret asking, even though I know your trying to help.
My head started to hurt after reading just a few paragraphs.
Chi reminds me of a fraternity like Sigma Chi
Thanks anyway!
irvine123_IHB
New member
IPO, homeseekers.com shows 33 triple leaf as $1.25 million, while the MLS shows still shows $1.359. Which one is the "correct' listing? can you tell if that is a REO?
Also, what is happening to 50 winding way? It was listed on homeseekers.com, but it is gone. The ower hasn't paid any tax for two years.
Also, what is happening to 50 winding way? It was listed on homeseekers.com, but it is gone. The ower hasn't paid any tax for two years.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
irvine123 said:
I'm on homeseekers right now and see 33 Triple Leaf still at $1.359M. MLS #S506898. 33 is not REO. Got their first NOD in mid March... Looks like 33 has around $1.36M in mortgages if they maxed their credit line.
50 Winding was supposed to have gone to auction earlier this month but realtytrac hasn't updated status. I don't know if it went back to the bank...
IrvineRealtor_IHB
New member
Ipop -
So I'm figuring out more of this site as I go. Finally found your forum thread here. :lol:
Some of the "extra" notes for 33 Triple Leaf:
SOLD AS SHORT SALE- ALL TERMS &CONDITIONSINCL. COMMISSIONS ARE SUBJECT TO LENDER'S APPROVAL. ANY REDUCTION IN COMMISSION WILL BE SPLIT 50/50. CALL LILY W/ QUESTIONS. TURN OFF LIGHTS,LOCK DOORS & LEAVE BUS CARDS. R-LONG MEADOW, L-VINTAGE, L-LAMPLIGHTER,R-ENCHANTED, R-TRIPLE LEAF. SUBMIT ALL OFFERS!!!
Occupant Vacant
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Listing Activity
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
List Date 9/25/2007 Date Added 9/25/2007 Tran Date 4/8/2008 DOM 193 LP/SqFt $362.4
Orig Price $1,599,000 Prev Price $1,499,000 Cur List Price $1,359,000 CDOM 441 Off Market Comp 3%
So I'm figuring out more of this site as I go. Finally found your forum thread here. :lol:
Some of the "extra" notes for 33 Triple Leaf:
SOLD AS SHORT SALE- ALL TERMS &CONDITIONSINCL. COMMISSIONS ARE SUBJECT TO LENDER'S APPROVAL. ANY REDUCTION IN COMMISSION WILL BE SPLIT 50/50. CALL LILY W/ QUESTIONS. TURN OFF LIGHTS,LOCK DOORS & LEAVE BUS CARDS. R-LONG MEADOW, L-VINTAGE, L-LAMPLIGHTER,R-ENCHANTED, R-TRIPLE LEAF. SUBMIT ALL OFFERS!!!
Occupant Vacant
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Listing Activity
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
List Date 9/25/2007 Date Added 9/25/2007 Tran Date 4/8/2008 DOM 193 LP/SqFt $362.4
Orig Price $1,599,000 Prev Price $1,499,000 Cur List Price $1,359,000 CDOM 441 Off Market Comp 3%
IrvineRealtor_IHB
New member
Also found a way to tweak the system and search solely by price/sq.ft. on the MLS in Irvine, and exclude short sales. Any interest in setting up an automatic search, PM me and I can send it to you.
Send me:
minimum bedrooms
minimum sqft
max price (I'll add 10% to widen search and allow for negotiation)
optional - neighborhood or zip code restrictions
Send me:
minimum bedrooms
minimum sqft
max price (I'll add 10% to widen search and allow for negotiation)
optional - neighborhood or zip code restrictions