What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
I actually work with someone who owns 8 houses and is looking at more. I've told her before that she was making a major mistake, but to no avail. So now I just smile and laugh to myself when I hear her talk about the opportunities that exist now.
 
Yeah, I'd think a juicy 1000 pt. plunge in the Dow might make people re-think their purchase plans.

I can't see how mortgage rates will not shoot through the roof beginning tomorrow...

Heck, I might just have to let my ARM reset for a year... The 1-year CMT could be at 1% by May when my new rate would be re-calculated. My reset would make my rate go from 3.875% to 3.75%... If Prime gets down to 4% like it did in 2003, my HELOC will be at 3.25%. Amazing.
 
"I'd think a juicy 1000 pt. plunge in the Dow might make people re-think their purchase plans."

I know many on this board want the market to crash, so the house price can come back down. Just remember there is side implications for that too: house price might come down 50%, but you might still can't afford it as you might not have a job. Be careful what you wish for.
 
Dow is not going to come down 1000 pt tomorrow.

I don't recall what the rules are, but if there is a certain % loss at any given time, the NYSE is halted for a period of time and/or closed for the rest of the day.

EDIT: Ah, here it is.
 
"Dow is not going to come down 1000 pt tomorrow"

I didn't say tomorrow... I was thinking maybe over the course of this week or the next.
 
"I know many on this board want the market to crash, so the house price can come back down. Just remember there is side implications for that too: house price might come down 50%, but you might still can't afford it as you might not have a job. Be careful what you wish for."

If house prices fell 50%, the mortgage payment I would have would be less than my monthly unemployment benefits. As long as the wife kept her teaching gig (the cuts would have to be pretty deep to pink slip a special ed teacher with nine years experience) we'd be solvent and living in a much bigger and nicer house. I could embrace stay-at-home daddydom for a couple of years!
 
More kool-aid in Northwood Pointe, 17 Plumbago hits the market at $1.499M

Looks like it’s situated close to Portola.

I received a phone call regarding 3 Raines in Northpark Square, 2,850sq.feet asking $800K. Agent said it’s a short sale, was wondering if anyone has seen it or thoughts
 
3 Raines sold on 11/08/2006 for $1,040,000. Financing was 100%. The house is a Plan 1 in Lennar's Manchester tract. Lot size is 5,144 sq ft and it's in an interior, cul-de-sac location. When it was on the market, before, it had a few upgrades and the condition was okay. Not sure about now?
 
Yeah ten, places like Plumbago are just listing at comparable lists. It doesn't seem to matter to people that things aren't selling at those high lists.

I haven't seen Raines, but they paid $1.04M at the bubblicious peak of November 2006. If i use my handy IPO-Shiller index values, www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.mht, it would appear NP Square is going at about 220-225 index which would put the CMV of Raines at around $830Kish.
 
IW,

Thanks for your response and info.

$800K seems attractive and may warrant a closer look.

Similar square footage, 9 Poway, in Northpark is currently at $1.198M.

That’s a difference of $398K, big chunk of change!
 
"has the bear stearns blowup affected escrows?"

Not that I have seen. Pretty much everything I have is staying in backup or pending. I did see one that went into escrow that is indicating "withdrawn" status now. That should mean escrow fell through and they elected to go off market after...
 
Hey Ipop,

Thanks for putting together and posting the IPO-Shiller index. Another great resource

Hate to ask, but I would really appreciate if you walk me thru how you arrived at the $830K valuation. I know, USC grad here.

Should’ve paid more attention in finance class. So many coeds, so little time.
 
No pics of Raines on the last listing, but here are pics of another Manchester plan 1 if you are interested ten:

http://www.ipoplaya.com/manchplan1.mht

Wow, they actually got quite an under-market price when they bought it in November 2006. It's worth way more than $830K today. Same plan sold for $1.08M on 8/8/05. Declines would put that one down to $950K or so. 6 Raines, also same plan, sold for $720K back in Feb 2003. Actually, any way you look at it, $800K for that house would be a good deal.

In terms of calculating the CMV via Shiller index, I take what I believe to be today's index value for Northpark Square, 220, and divide it by the index value during the month of previous purchase. For 3 Raines, the index in November 2006 was 273. That produces a percentage you can then apply to the last sales price to come up with an approximate value for today. In theory, 3 Raines should be worth 80.5% of the previous bubble peak purchase if they paid a market price. I think they paid well below market at the time though...

If you consider the recent closes on Ravendale and Galena, the place is probably worth $900K.
 
Nice to finally see some decent reductions over there.

No doubt this will hurt 17 Plumbago, which just listed at $1.499M

The guy over in Rosecrest at 1 New Dawn is riding the market down as well.

Still a litte early to fire in my offer of $250/ft. I'd like to steal that one at '02 pricing.
 
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