What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

[quote author="bkshopr" date=1228381685][quote author="awgee" date=1228381409][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228381003][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228377800]Yes but in 2004, only condos were in that range. Like I said, my brain contains all the statistics. Look I went to work where everybody thougth my spouse and I were either nuts, dumb, naive for not buying in 2004. So I looked at the Irvine MLS every single day using my lunch period and I stopped going to lunch with these people. My brain contains a lot of data. I don't need no frigging spreadsheet. I look at a house and I know roughly what it was sold in 2003 and in 2004.</blockquote>


A detached Turtle Ridge condo just closed for $740K WPR. That is almost $500/sf. How much was that going for in 2003/2004? Is $500/sf a significant drop for it?</blockquote>
How much was it going for in 2006?</blockquote>


Plan 4 of Arborel was sold several years ago for $912k</blockquote>


So, is that a minor drop, a drop, or a significant drop?
 
Man... these IBH iFights? are awesome.



Although I have to agree with IPO... the price drops for Irvine in 2008 don't seem to be very significant at the higher end.



Sure you'll see a huge dropper here or there but as a whole... prices seem to be holding. Heck... usc sold his condo in Quail Hill for a PROFIT in September and he bought in 05!



I can understand IPO's itch... not seeing huge declines while my house has been in escrow has made us doubt selling it in the first place... I blame it on those FCBs!!!
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1228381409][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228381003][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228377800]Yes but in 2004, only condos were in that range. Like I said, my brain contains all the statistics. Look I went to work where everybody thougth my spouse and I were either nuts, dumb, naive for not buying in 2004. So I looked at the Irvine MLS every single day using my lunch period and I stopped going to lunch with these people. My brain contains a lot of data. I don't need no frigging spreadsheet. I look at a house and I know roughly what it was sold in 2003 and in 2004.</blockquote>


A detached Turtle Ridge condo just closed for $740K WPR. That is almost $500/sf. How much was that going for in 2003/2004? Is $500/sf a significant drop for it?</blockquote>
How much was it going for in 2006?</blockquote>


No idea here... I'd have to look at the data to find that out. Don't have it in my brain. WPR has apparently memorized prices from 2003/2004 so I was curious what TRidge condos were selling for then.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228385116][quote author="awgee" date=1228381409][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228381003][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228377800]Yes but in 2004, only condos were in that range. Like I said, my brain contains all the statistics. Look I went to work where everybody thougth my spouse and I were either nuts, dumb, naive for not buying in 2004. So I looked at the Irvine MLS every single day using my lunch period and I stopped going to lunch with these people. My brain contains a lot of data. I don't need no frigging spreadsheet. I look at a house and I know roughly what it was sold in 2003 and in 2004.</blockquote>


A detached Turtle Ridge condo just closed for $740K WPR. That is almost $500/sf. How much was that going for in 2003/2004? Is $500/sf a significant drop for it?</blockquote>
How much was it going for in 2006?</blockquote>


No idea here... I'd have to look at the data to find that out. Don't have it in my brain. WPR has apparently memorized prices from 2003/2004 so I was curious what TRidge condos were selling for then.</blockquote>


If anyone would know for sure... it would IR2. I'm sure he has all these prices memorized in his head.
 
Hi IPO,

Standard Pacific recently finished building 8 new homes at Serra, Portola Springs. Six of them have been sold in the last couples of weeks. Some of them have moved in already. 3 of them are on Exploration and 5 of them are on Small Grove. I am wondering why they are not on your spreadsheet nor on IR2's. I am curious how much they were sold for and how much down these buyers put down. Can you or IR2 track them?



Thanks!
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228385116][quote author="awgee" date=1228381409][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228381003][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228377800]Yes but in 2004, only condos were in that range. Like I said, my brain contains all the statistics. Look I went to work where everybody thougth my spouse and I were either nuts, dumb, naive for not buying in 2004. So I looked at the Irvine MLS every single day using my lunch period and I stopped going to lunch with these people. My brain contains a lot of data. I don't need no frigging spreadsheet. I look at a house and I know roughly what it was sold in 2003 and in 2004.</blockquote>


A detached Turtle Ridge condo just closed for $740K WPR. That is almost $500/sf. How much was that going for in 2003/2004? Is $500/sf a significant drop for it?</blockquote>
How much was it going for in 2006?</blockquote>


No idea here... I'd have to look at the data to find that out. Don't have it in my brain. WPR has apparently memorized prices from 2003/2004 so I was curious what TRidge condos were selling for then.</blockquote>


Bkshoppr says <em>"Plan 4 of Arborel was sold several years ago for $912k</em>. Does that sound right? Would you consider that a significant drop? It looks like that is 19% in two or so years.



Why are you measuring drops from the 2003/2004 price? Is that a significant time period? I guess I have a tendency to look at differences from the peak.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1228377097][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228376578][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1228374398][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228371397]



I mean prices are going down. I have been keeping track of them. All you need is for home prices to go down just $10K a month you still come out ahead.



Same with 14 arbusto, it's was the front blog yesterday for $839K. Similar house was snapped up tfor $860K in Fall 2004. This neighborhood went up to $1.2M and so on, even without the tight mortgage condition that we are experiencing.

Look I won the bet with some guy at work about LA average price. He said it would never go down to $365K(2010) but it's already down to $355K.</blockquote>Get psyched!



You got that right!

Take a look at 23 Lookout.

Just closed at $1.2M, previous sale was $1.345M in April of ?07.

That?s alomst $150K drop in a year and a half.</blockquote>


Or lets put this into Ten language... 23 Lookout is a Mille Fleur plan 3, 3648sf right? Remember 20 Breezes, also a MF plan 3 at 3648sf. What did it sell for back in June? $1.172M... So the same model house just closed for more in December than it did in June. Is that correct?



Of course, if you believe Westpark's non-scientific analysis, that somehow equates to prices falling.</blockquote>


I agree with Westpark.



So Breezes went for $28K lower back in June.

Either way, on both Mille Fleur homes those are very nice declines.

Which is the important thing right?

It closed for $28K more, big deal.

Maybe Lookout is in a better location, interior upgrades or whatever.

The point being, at that price point $28K is peanuts.</blockquote>


Just adding some more info:

Breezes was along Trabuco and did not have landscaping. Lookout is a in better location and was in excellent/move-in condition.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228381003][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228377800]Yes but in 2004, only condos were in that range. Like I said, my brain contains all the statistics. Look I went to work where everybody thougth my spouse and I were either nuts, dumb, naive for not buying in 2004. So I looked at the Irvine MLS every single day using my lunch period and I stopped going to lunch with these people. My brain contains a lot of data. I don't need no frigging spreadsheet. I look at a house and I know roughly what it was sold in 2003 and in 2004.</blockquote>


A detached Turtle Ridge condo just closed for $740K WPR. That is almost $500/sf. How much was that going for in 2003/2004? Is $500/sf a significant drop for it?</blockquote>


Address please?
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228385116][quote author="awgee" date=1228381409][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228381003][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228377800]Yes but in 2004, only condos were in that range. Like I said, my brain contains all the statistics. Look I went to work where everybody thougth my spouse and I were either nuts, dumb, naive for not buying in 2004. So I looked at the Irvine MLS every single day using my lunch period and I stopped going to lunch with these people. My brain contains a lot of data. I don't need no frigging spreadsheet. I look at a house and I know roughly what it was sold in 2003 and in 2004.</blockquote>


A detached Turtle Ridge condo just closed for $740K WPR. That is almost $500/sf. How much was that going for in 2003/2004? Is $500/sf a significant drop for it?</blockquote>
How much was it going for in 2006?</blockquote>


No idea here... I'd have to look at the data to find that out. Don't have it in my brain. WPR has apparently memorized prices from 2003/2004 so I was curious what TRidge condos were selling for then.</blockquote>


Where is the address? There are several type of condos. Shady Cannyon condos. When I see the address I can tell you for sure.
 
Turtle Ridge



Condos

67 Shade tree - sold for $890K - Nov 13 2008 - In 2004, similar house was bought for $1.250M. A whopping $360K loss.

133 Danbrook - asking price $320K - Bough for $472K. $152K loss if sold at asking price



SFR

46 Crimson Rose - asking price $1.199M - Dec 2008 - Bought for $1.447M - $248K if loss if sold at asking price.



I plan to add more when I have time.
 
Speaking of Turtle Ridge, does anyone know how much <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/26-Trumpet-Vine-92603/home/5901313">26 Trumpet Vine</a> originally sold for?
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228389955]



Where is the address? There are several type of condos. Shady Cannyon condos. When I see the address I can tell you for sure.</blockquote>


I was just being cheeky WPR because you said "I look at a house and I know roughly what it was sold in 2003 and in 2004". Figured the area (Turtle Ridge) and size were enough for you to offer up a value.



The answer is it sold for around $400/sf back in late 2003 / early 2004. It went for almost $500/sf this week but at peak it likely sold for $600/sf. In other words, the price today is 16-18% off peak which is around what the more premium Irvine areas have been selling for all year.



The unit in question is 51 Bower Tree. It's an Arborel unit. It was low list for $699K and went for $740K.
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228390567]Turtle Ridge



Condos

67 Shade tree - sold for $890K - Nov 13 2008 - In 2004, similar house was bought for $1.250M. A whopping $360K loss.

133 Danbrook - asking price $320K - Bough for $472K. $152K loss if sold at asking price



SFR

36 Crimson Rose - asking price $1.199M - Dec 2008 - Bought for $1.447M - $248K if loss if sold at asking price.



I plan to add more when I have time.</blockquote>


Uh, 67 Shade Tree, according to Zillow, was purchased for $705K in very late 2003. How did a similar house sell for $1.25M in 2004? That makes no sense.
 
[quote author="ABC123" date=1228391943]Speaking of Turtle Ridge, does anyone know how much <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/26-Trumpet-Vine-92603/home/5901313">26 Trumpet Vine</a> originally sold for?</blockquote>


$1.041M on 2/26/04 per Zillow.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228408662][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228390567]Turtle Ridge



Condos

67 Shade tree - sold for $890K - Nov 13 2008 - In 2004, similar house was bought for $1.250M. A whopping $360K loss.

133 Danbrook - asking price $320K - Bough for $472K. $152K loss if sold at asking price



SFR

36 Crimson Rose - asking price $1.199M - Dec 2008 - Bought for $1.447M - $248K if loss if sold at asking price.



I plan to add more when I have time.</blockquote>


Uh, 67 Shade Tree, according to Zillow, was purchased for $705K in very late 2003. How did a similar house sell for $1.25M in 2004? That makes no sense.</blockquote>


I was going to say the same thing. I actually toured the models and thought about buying the last unit available in early 04. The asking price was mid 700s if i recall correctly. Keep in mind, these are 2200 sqft detached condos with shared driveways at the base of turtle ridge - basically the worst location.
 
[quote author="cantaloop" date=1228389697][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1228377097][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228376578][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1228374398][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228371397]



I mean prices are going down. I have been keeping track of them. All you need is for home prices to go down just $10K a month you still come out ahead.



Same with 14 arbusto, it's was the front blog yesterday for $839K. Similar house was snapped up tfor $860K in Fall 2004. This neighborhood went up to $1.2M and so on, even without the tight mortgage condition that we are experiencing.

Look I won the bet with some guy at work about LA average price. He said it would never go down to $365K(2010) but it's already down to $355K.</blockquote>Get psyched!



You got that right!

Take a look at 23 Lookout.

Just closed at $1.2M, previous sale was $1.345M in April of ?07.

That?s alomst $150K drop in a year and a half.</blockquote>


Or lets put this into Ten language... 23 Lookout is a Mille Fleur plan 3, 3648sf right? Remember 20 Breezes, also a MF plan 3 at 3648sf. What did it sell for back in June? $1.172M... So the same model house just closed for more in December than it did in June. Is that correct?



Of course, if you believe Westpark's non-scientific analysis, that somehow equates to prices falling.</blockquote>


I agree with Westpark.



So Breezes went for $28K lower back in June.

Either way, on both Mille Fleur homes those are very nice declines.

Which is the important thing right?

It closed for $28K more, big deal.

Maybe Lookout is in a better location, interior upgrades or whatever.

The point being, at that price point $28K is peanuts.</blockquote>


Just adding some more info:

Breezes was along Trabuco and did not have landscaping. Lookout is a in better location and was in excellent/move-in condition.</blockquote>




Thank you for adding the comment.

That?s exactly what I was trying to politely point out.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228408662][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228390567]Turtle Ridge



Condos

67 Shade tree - sold for $890K - Nov 13 2008 - In 2004, similar house was bought for $1.250M. A whopping $360K loss.

133 Danbrook - asking price $320K - Bough for $472K. $152K loss if sold at asking price



SFR

36 Crimson Rose - asking price $1.199M - Dec 2008 - Bought for $1.447M - $248K if loss if sold at asking price.



I plan to add more when I have time.</blockquote>


Uh, 67 Shade Tree, according to Zillow, was purchased for $705K in very late 2003. How did a similar house sell for $1.25M in 2004? That makes no sense.</blockquote>


Not the exact same address but similar house was sold very quickly for $1.250M. Like I mentioned before, the neighborhood comps will bring down the home prices at TR.
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228390567]Turtle Ridge



Condos

67 Shade tree - sold for $890K - Nov 13 2008 - In 2004, similar house was bought for $1.250M. A whopping $360K loss.

133 Danbrook - asking price $320K - Bough for $472K. $152K loss if sold at asking price



SFR

36 Crimson Rose - asking price $1.199M - Dec 2008 - Bought for $1.447M - $248K if loss if sold at asking price.



I plan to add more when I have time.</blockquote>


Those look like some pretty hefty losses to me.
 
I was curious about the 26 Trumpet Vine house as well. They will still get a good profit if it goes near asking. From the pics, it looks like they did little to the backyard in terms of landscaping- compared to other TRidge homes I've seen. Does anyone know if these are HELOC users- or if they are distressed, upside down on their loan? THanks
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228438052][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1228408662][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1228390567]Turtle Ridge



Condos

67 Shade tree - sold for $890K - Nov 13 2008 - In 2004, similar house was bought for $1.250M. A whopping $360K loss.

133 Danbrook - asking price $320K - Bough for $472K. $152K loss if sold at asking price



SFR

36 Crimson Rose - asking price $1.199M - Dec 2008 - Bought for $1.447M - $248K if loss if sold at asking price.



I plan to add more when I have time.</blockquote>


Uh, 67 Shade Tree, according to Zillow, was purchased for $705K in very late 2003. How did a similar house sell for $1.25M in 2004? That makes no sense.</blockquote>


Not the exact same address but similar house was sold very quickly for $1.250M. Like I mentioned before, the neighborhood comps will bring down the home prices at TR.</blockquote>


So you are saying a 2000sf 3/3 (or close to that) in TRidge sold for $1.25M in 2004? I think those statistics in your brain have to be very wrong about that. What is the address? $625/sf in 2004? No way...
 
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