What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

How are prices in Irvine effectively flat while other areas are seeing tremendous loses? I know that it has to do with desirable locations and schools but you would think that there would be at least a 10% decrease if the surrounding cities have seen 20%+ depreciation.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227074610][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1227069883][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227069225][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227061062]Stop being Captain Negative and get on board Ipop.</blockquote>


With yet another NWII close in the books ($414 per sf for 32 Secret Garden), the November price declines I was charting are pretty much wiped out...



Y'all can rah rah about fantasy declines all you want, but I'm still sailing on the SS Real World and I'm seeing nothing but flat on the horizon.</blockquote>


Why don't you forget about all this and just buy? Put your money where you think it should be.</blockquote>


I have put my money where I think it will be, i.e. I expect declines. I expected them to kick-in again after the summer selling season but doesn't appear to be happening, at least not yet. Renting is more costly than owning my previous place so I am actually spending more each month now and haven't gained via continued depreciation in prices. That irks the hell out of me...</blockquote>


I hope you factor in the interest that you earn in your savings.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227074610][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1227069883][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227069225][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227061062]Stop being Captain Negative and get on board Ipop.</blockquote>


With yet another NWII close in the books ($414 per sf for 32 Secret Garden), the November price declines I was charting are pretty much wiped out...



Y'all can rah rah about fantasy declines all you want, but I'm still sailing on the SS Real World and I'm seeing nothing but flat on the horizon.</blockquote>


Why don't you forget about all this and just buy? Put your money where you think it should be.</blockquote>


I have put my money where I think it will be, i.e. I expect declines. I expected them to kick-in again after the summer selling season but doesn't appear to be happening, at least not yet. Renting is more costly than owning my previous place so I am actually spending more each month now and haven't gained via continued depreciation in prices. That irks the hell out of me...</blockquote>


Money isn't everything. You were wise to exit the TUSD boundaries.
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1227076785]I hope you factor in the interest that you earn in your savings.</blockquote>


Yup, I sure did. I also factored in the incremental cost of moving one additional time, higher utilities costs, holding costs on two properties since I rented first then sold, etc. I modeled every cost of the sell and rent vs. stay and own scenario I could come up with to calc an ROI on the effort. A 5% reduction in home prices over a year's time would break-even in terms of additional cost in 4.5 years or so. I didn't think 5% was going to be hard to come by...



We are paying $700 per month over the course of a year more in our rental situation, which is easy to do considering my former mortgage was at 5% and my condo was much smaller than my rental. I'm not complaining, at least I have a driveway now... Still, if prices are still the same come next Spring/Summer, I will probably be kicking myself for selling and moving.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227078322]Still, if prices are still the same come next Spring/Summer, I will probably be kicking myself for selling and moving.</blockquote>
But why? You got a driveway and a better school district (IUSD 4 LIFE!).



If prices went up next year... that would be good reason... but if they stayed the same it would upset you? Please fill us noobs in on why.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1227080702][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227078322]Still, if prices are still the same come next Spring/Summer, I will probably be kicking myself for selling and moving.</blockquote>
But why? You got a driveway and a better school district (IUSD 4 LIFE!).



If prices went up next year... that would be good reason... but if they stayed the same it would upset you? Please fill us noobs in on why.</blockquote>


My moved was conditioned on the belief that prices were falling. I wouldn't have incurred the additional expense and hassle just to get a bigger lot/house and IUSD access. My condo was two blocks away from a very good TUSD school (Myford) which I would have been happy to put my son in. It scores better than my local IUSD elementary (College Park) with about the same racial mix.
 
[quote author="JLegend" date=1227080676]IPO - Are there any houses out there that you actually want?</blockquote>


Yup, just not in my price range :)
 
<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/">Slow for week for escrows</a>, just added six new ones that have gone under contract over the past three days...



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">Recent closing prices</a> are now showing a decline for the month waffling between 1-3%. The number of closings appears way down from October. I still see many in backup offers status but feels like closing times are stretching...
 
Finally thats IHB featured property of "women in the bubble" made your listing of closings this week



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/women-in-the-bubble">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/women-in-the-bubble</a>



sold in 11/06 for 680k and just closed at 530k. I was expecting more than a 30% cut on this property but oh well.





Do you think its a coincidence that its neighbor just now came on the market? I've been waiting for it for awhile to come on the market since I saw it filed a NOD. Do you think they were waiting for 33 to get rid of their for sale sign?



<a href="http://www.preforeclosurenetwork.net/Details.aspx?ID=2008000398628">31 Castillo - 90 Days late</a>



but of course its listed 100k above what the neighbor closed at



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Castillo-92620/home/4786551">Redfin Link to 31 Castillo</a> Maybe this can be an IHB feature soon, after all it does have a "Great Eat In Kitchen." Who needs a dining room when you have that?



Oh, and 7 Castillo also has a NOD, still waiting for that to come on the market.
 
Saw the humongous moving truck by 112 Nighthawk. On Zillow, it's says the house was sold on 9/15/08. Just wondering how come they are just moving out now. It's been more than two months! I thought it is more like 30 days now? no?
 
[quote author="24inIrvine" date=1227333052]Finally thats IHB featured property of "women in the bubble" made your listing of closings this week



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/women-in-the-bubble">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/women-in-the-bubble</a>



sold in 11/06 for 680k and just closed at 530k. I was expecting more than a 30% cut on this property but oh well.



</blockquote>


30% off peak is hard to come by. Just had a couple more closes. One on Bamboo in NWII for 16% off peak and one is Tustin Field for 25% off peak... Add in a Turtle Rock place that went for $476 per sf (sold for almost 150% of 1998 purchase price) and November declines are all but wiped out.
 
For Northpark lovers, <a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/28-Maywood-Irvine-CA-92602/51633309_zpid">this 3200sf Brentwood </a>just closed for $1.17M.



A 211 on the Case-Shiller, almost exactly the same rollback depth as a similar model close on 4/4/08... Or to translate, six months later and similar higher-end homes in NP appear to be trading for pretty much exactly the same prices. NP has been hitting 200-220 CS number since March.
 
Meanwhile back in the real world

2 Malibu which is roughly the same size and plan as Maywood and just one street over is priced under $1M, at $989K
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227670420]2 Malibu which is roughly the same size and plan as Maywood and just one street over is priced under $1M, at $989K</blockquote>


Except Malibu sides to Culver and traffic roar turns many buyers off in a buyers market... Finshings are similar. Maywood has a nicely landscaped backyard with built-in cuzzi which I don't believe Malibu has. I am surprised that someone hasn't offered up over $1M on Malibu though.



New escrow activity has finally slowed for the holidays. Volume appears to be way down over the past couple of weeks. Hopefully the holiday weakness will take another 5% out of the market over the next couple of months.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227670420]Meanwhile back in the real world

2 Malibu which is roughly the same size and plan as Maywood and just one street over is priced under $1M, at $989K</blockquote>


Reflecting on your post ten, it amazes me that a numbers guy like yourself ignores closed sales and instead bases market perception on list prices... When you finally buy a place, will you ignore all the comps and just survey list prices to get a handle on the market?
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227687151][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227670420]Meanwhile back in the real world

2 Malibu which is roughly the same size and plan as Maywood and just one street over is priced under $1M, at $989K</blockquote>


Reflecting on your post ten, it amazes me that a numbers guy like yourself ignores closed sales and instead bases market perception on list prices... When you finally buy a place, will you ignore all the comps and just survey list prices to get a handle on the market?</blockquote>


There are a number of different factors I look at and consider before writing an offer.

Closed sales and list prices are among those.

I take market conditions and how motivated the seller is into account as well.

What more do you suggest I consider?
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227688955][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227687151][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227670420]Meanwhile back in the real world

2 Malibu which is roughly the same size and plan as Maywood and just one street over is priced under $1M, at $989K</blockquote>


Reflecting on your post ten, it amazes me that a numbers guy like yourself ignores closed sales and instead bases market perception on list prices... When you finally buy a place, will you ignore all the comps and just survey list prices to get a handle on the market?</blockquote>


There are a number of different factors I look at and consider before writing an offer.

Closed sales and list prices are among those.

I take market conditions and how motivated the seller is into account as well.

What more do you suggest I consider?</blockquote>


Location, Location, Location!
 
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