ipoplaya_IHB
New member
25w100k+ said:
Because I foolishly believe prices are heading down despite the empirical evidence to the contrary...
What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too
- Thread starter ipoplaya_IHB
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Because I foolishly believe prices are heading down despite the empirical evidence to the contrary...
I thought your whole thing was "i'm going to be in the house a long time, its more important to get what I want in a nice location then to lose 50k or so over a few years" etc.?
Do you believe prices aer going to come down another 20% or more? And at what point are you ok with further decline (5% ok, but 10% too much?) vs. not?
This one was under contract prior to my seeing or hearing about it.
It’s been pending for sometime and now finally closed.
In my previous posts on this thread, I’ve mentioned numerous times that I liked this house and would move on it at this price point.
The competition 15 Paso Robles is still on the market asking $1.649M
Somehow I don’t think they’re ready to let it go for $1.3M.
We’ll see
I really have no idea 25... When I sold my condo, I felt pretty confident in prices falling at least another 10%. I assumed that after the summer, we'd get another leg down in prices. October actually having higher prices is a disturbing trend. With all that has gone in the equity and credit markets, I'd have thought sales would have seized up in October (not the case apparently) and prices would be softening at an accelerated pace. Maybe it will take until November/December to see that effect, I have no idea.
If Irvine somehow stubbornly holds to prices around this level, I guess it'll be AV for us. The price differential between AV and Irvine has really widened lately. Makes AV a more compelling alternative...
I prefer IUSD but would be fine with a good trifecta of TUSD schools. Hicks, Pioneer, and Beckman are just as good in my book as any IUSD combo.
I sense your frustration and I understand. I went to see a home in Turtle Ridge and it's so small and still expensive. The HOA is $395. I have not looked at the Mello Roos.
Can you send us the info on those?
Closing prices are here. Terra Bella is a 2/2.5, 1341sf, in Northpark. Pretty clean inside. Almost move-in ready. Looks like the close forced a big price reduction on this market chaser in the same tract. The one on Rathbourne was a 2/2, 1260sf unit, in the same complex as this slightly larger one.
I'd guess these would have to rent for $2200 or so... Closing price around $400K is probably within $300 per month of rental parity.
Thank you. We're hoping to get a 3/2 townhouse in Irvine built in the late 90s or so for about $400k, but these are great comps. Thank you again.
Thanks IAC. I did update for Three Rivers.
Just added another eight new escrows. Found two cancels as well...
November has started out with a big average price decline, but the sample is still tiny.
Winter is starting, price drops are coming. Hold on tight, it's cliff diving season!
Before I buy a home, I will need you to IPO/Shiller the home price and see where I land...when I have a deal around 160 I might take it.
Holding CPI constant as of August, a CS index of 175 would gets us to CPI-adjusted parity...
The chart uses 1990 as a starting point which was near the peak of the previous bubble. A more reasonable starting point to project a bottom would be the previous bottom in 1997.
I'll run it back to Jan 1987, which is as far as Case goes back, and see how it looks...
I make no claims about what is justified or not. You give me wage growth numbers over the period and I'll use them. I haven't seen them but I do agree they would be a much better inflater than CPI.
Because I foolishly believe prices are heading down despite the empirical evidence to the contrary...
25w100k+_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
I thought your whole thing was "i'm going to be in the house a long time, its more important to get what I want in a nice location then to lose 50k or so over a few years" etc.?
Do you believe prices aer going to come down another 20% or more? And at what point are you ok with further decline (5% ok, but 10% too much?) vs. not?
tenmagnet_IHB
New member
25w100k+ said:
This one was under contract prior to my seeing or hearing about it.
It’s been pending for sometime and now finally closed.
In my previous posts on this thread, I’ve mentioned numerous times that I liked this house and would move on it at this price point.
The competition 15 Paso Robles is still on the market asking $1.649M
Somehow I don’t think they’re ready to let it go for $1.3M.
We’ll see
WestparkRenter_IHB
New member
I thought you want Irvine school district?ipoplaya said:
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
25w100k+ said:
I really have no idea 25... When I sold my condo, I felt pretty confident in prices falling at least another 10%. I assumed that after the summer, we'd get another leg down in prices. October actually having higher prices is a disturbing trend. With all that has gone in the equity and credit markets, I'd have thought sales would have seized up in October (not the case apparently) and prices would be softening at an accelerated pace. Maybe it will take until November/December to see that effect, I have no idea.
If Irvine somehow stubbornly holds to prices around this level, I guess it'll be AV for us. The price differential between AV and Irvine has really widened lately. Makes AV a more compelling alternative...
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
WestparkRenter said:
I prefer IUSD but would be fine with a good trifecta of TUSD schools. Hicks, Pioneer, and Beckman are just as good in my book as any IUSD combo.
WestparkRenter_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
I sense your frustration and I understand. I went to see a home in Turtle Ridge and it's so small and still expensive. The HOA is $395. I have not looked at the Mello Roos.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
Just added 15 new escrows that have gone under contract since late last week...
EDIT - Make that 17 new escrows, just found two more.
EDIT - Make that 17 new escrows, just found two more.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
Couple of recent closings on small condos, 1200-1400sf, have been within a few hundred dollars per month of rental parity. They are rollbacks to late 2003 pricing. The places in question were recent REOs and in fairly premium Irvine neighborhoods, NW Pointe and Northpark.
sonicko_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
Can you send us the info on those?
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
sonicko said:
Closing prices are here. Terra Bella is a 2/2.5, 1341sf, in Northpark. Pretty clean inside. Almost move-in ready. Looks like the close forced a big price reduction on this market chaser in the same tract. The one on Rathbourne was a 2/2, 1260sf unit, in the same complex as this slightly larger one.
I'd guess these would have to rent for $2200 or so... Closing price around $400K is probably within $300 per month of rental parity.
sonicko_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
Thank you. We're hoping to get a 3/2 townhouse in Irvine built in the late 90s or so for about $400k, but these are great comps. Thank you again.
IACRenter_IHB
New member
Hi IPO,
Just in case you didn't update your websiteyet: 15 Three Rivers, Irvine--Northpark (MLS P649689) has closed today for $725K. This was aEvergreen Model 4in Northpark. They had the same model close for $690K at 21 Crescent City recently but Three Rivers had a better corner location and fronting a street (i.e. better curb appeal and brigher).
Just in case you didn't update your websiteyet: 15 Three Rivers, Irvine--Northpark (MLS P649689) has closed today for $725K. This was aEvergreen Model 4in Northpark. They had the same model close for $690K at 21 Crescent City recently but Three Rivers had a better corner location and fronting a street (i.e. better curb appeal and brigher).
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
IACRenter said:
Thanks IAC. I did update for Three Rivers.
Just added another eight new escrows. Found two cancels as well...
November has started out with a big average price decline, but the sample is still tiny.
Gohabsgo_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
Winter is starting, price drops are coming. Hold on tight, it's cliff diving season!
Before I buy a home, I will need you to IPO/Shiller the home price and see where I land...when I have a deal around 160 I might take it.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
Roo said:
Holding CPI constant as of August, a CS index of 175 would gets us to CPI-adjusted parity...
freedomCM_IHB
New member
based on CPI? you think that a 75% appreciation from year2000 is justified based on wage growth? I would be curious to see just how much wages will have increased once all that mortgage broker salary has been removed from the system.
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:Roo said:
Holding CPI constant as of August, a CS index of 175 would gets us to CPI-adjusted parity...
The chart uses 1990 as a starting point which was near the peak of the previous bubble. A more reasonable starting point to project a bottom would be the previous bottom in 1997.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
IrvineRenter said:
I'll run it back to Jan 1987, which is as far as Case goes back, and see how it looks...
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
freedomCM said:
I make no claims about what is justified or not. You give me wage growth numbers over the period and I'll use them. I haven't seen them but I do agree they would be a much better inflater than CPI.