What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

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wow, that sounds pretty active. why so many Irvine sales? Surely not just the SS?

CM has been very slow, only 9 sales for the first 21 days of January. I wonder if this means that they will ramp up for the final 10 days.
 
Damn Woodbury continues to hold up at 19-20% off peak. Had two closes there this past week and both were still at 2005 price equivalents...
 
freedomCM said:
wow, that sounds pretty active. why so many Irvine sales? Surely not just the SS?

CM has been very slow, only 9 sales for the first 21 days of January. I wonder if this means that they will ramp up for the final 10 days.
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How important are the number of sales? Dataquick consistently shows Irvine home prices as declining. At this rate, the number home sales will be through the roof and home prices will be in the toilet.
 
well, that people are still willing to put their downpayment funds on the line, despite the growing chorus of opinion that the economy is bad and house prices will decline further, suggests that prices in Irvine are finding support levels.

I would think that if people really were worried, sales would be tanking, even for heavily discounted houses.

Either that, or it means Irvine is full of delusional people who don't read the newspapers.
 
Very, very interesting table Graph...so Irvine has the highest LTV and the lowest foreclosure rate. I'm thinking that these folks are clinging to their properties longer and harder than other folks. Sooner or later the crap will hit the fan in Irvine and we'll see a 10-15% step down in pricing as the foreclosure rate climbs to double digits.
 
Oh, those poor people! This was obviously a case of predatory lending!

John Hazen is a customer of Bear and EMC whose income falls short of his mortgage payments. In 2005, the peak of the housing boom, he paid $725,000 for a four-bedroom house in Huntington Beach, using 100% borrowed money.

Soon after buying, Hazen began dipping into his savings to pay two mortgages, including a $579,920 first mortgage with EMC.

Hazen said he has a good job as a vice president in the tech department of Costa Mesa-based apparel company Hurley, but he worries eventually he will run out of savings to pay his mortgages.

“My plan was to re-fi at some point or sell the house and move if things kept getting better,” Hazen said.
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Hmmnnnn........sounds like he should have known better. How about the professional set?

In another local case, Kim Jensen, a real estate agent, and a domestic partner paid $800,000 for a house in Laguna Beach. EMC quickly bought their $640,000 first mortgage, which allows them to select a payment that defers interest and principal owed to the future. Such loans are dubbed option ARMs.

They have been making the minimum payment, and now owe $22,000 more to EMC, Jensen said.

The partners split up, and Jensen, now unable to afford the loan, has lobbied EMC for a modification. EMC ignored the pleas for help and did not send modification paperwork until a Register reporter inquired about the case, Jensen said.
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But I thought it was a great time to buy and Real Estate always went up?

Never mind, it’s easier to blame predatory lending.
 
ipoplaya said:
Damn Woodbury continues to hold up at 19-20% off peak. Had two closes there this past week and both were still at 2005 price equivalents...
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Like I said... the mid to higher new places are going to be very stubborn... they have a higher basis so I doubt prices can go much less than what people paid for them when they were first built. I don't recall that happening in Irvine in the 90s bubble (still waiting for someone to get me data on that).
 
irvine_home_owner said:
ipoplaya said:
Damn Woodbury continues to hold up at 19-20% off peak. Had two closes there this past week and both were still at 2005 price equivalents...
Click to expand...
Like I said... the mid to higher new places are going to be very stubborn... they have a higher basis so I doubt prices can go much less than what people paid for them when they were first built. I don't recall that happening in Irvine in the 90s bubble (still waiting for someone to get me data on that).
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In case you missed it, Woodbury is getting whacked with the foreclosure syndrome. This 20% off crap is just the beginning, and watch this thread for 30%-40% off in the near future, because the 20% off happened before the foreclosure syndrome hit Woodbury.

What exactly are you looking for again in the 90s stat, and how should I adjust for the amount of job losses being higher this time, and foreclosures being higher this time? What are you trying to point out? Stats from the 90s are now irrelevant, and you need to adjust for the severity of this down turn. What? Are you afraid you missed the boat? Are you afraid that newer homes won't fall much like they did in the 90s? Come on man... didn't we get you to the Kool-Aid detox center? If you really want the stats, I can get them to you, but just know this is worse... way worse than the 90s, and whatever happened then doesn't mean sh*t. All my foreclosure estimates have been blown out of the water, worse than I ever expected, and comparing new home sales from the 90s will too. Just sit back and relax, be thankful you have job, and home prices will come to you. Comparing this to the 90s is like comparing similar homes in Woodbridge to similar homes Quail Hill, it's not the same, it's different this time... it's worse.
 
From another thread we found out that many Irvine home owner's received monetary gifts from their parents to purchase Irvine real estate.

Conjecture - Just as parental gifts probably contrubuted to increased Irvine home prices, parental "involvement" will now preclude late or missed mortgage payments and preclude foreclosure proceedings in Irvine. In other words, Irvine will have less foreclosures because parents will be giving more money to their offspring who they originally gave money to to buy, thus keeping Irvine home prices higher.

Just a thought.
 
graphrix said:
irvine_home_owner said:
ipoplaya said:
Damn Woodbury continues to hold up at 19-20% off peak. Had two closes there this past week and both were still at 2005 price equivalents...
Click to expand...
Like I said... the mid to higher new places are going to be very stubborn... they have a higher basis so I doubt prices can go much less than what people paid for them when they were first built. I don't recall that happening in Irvine in the 90s bubble (still waiting for someone to get me data on that).
Click to expand...

In case you missed it, Woodbury is getting whacked with the foreclosure syndrome. This 20% off crap is just the beginning, and watch this thread for 30%-40% off in the near future, because the 20% off happened before the foreclosure syndrome hit Woodbury.

What exactly are you looking for again in the 90s stat, and how should I adjust for the amount of job losses being higher this time, and foreclosures being higher this time? What are you trying to point out? Stats from the 90s are now irrelevant, and you need to adjust for the severity of this down turn. What? Are you afraid you missed the boat? Are you afraid that newer homes won't fall much like they did in the 90s? Come on man... didn't we get you to the Kool-Aid detox center? If you really want the stats, I can get them to you, but just know this is worse... way worse than the 90s, and whatever happened then doesn't mean sh*t. All my foreclosure estimates have been blown out of the water, worse than I ever expected, and comparing new home sales from the 90s will too. Just sit back and relax, be thankful you have job, and home prices will come to you. Comparing this to the 90s is like comparing similar homes in Woodbridge to similar homes Quail Hill, it's not the same, it's different this time... it's worse.
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Easy homeslice... historical data still means something.

The point is that people who bought new homes in Irvine in the higher ranges will be less likely to sell homes for that much of a loss due to Kool-Aid intoxification. Prices are going to be sticky at a certain point for psychological reasons... not fundamental ones. You may see a below basis foreclosure here or there... but some FCB or KC will scoop it up at a price that keeps the bubble inflated... at least for the short term. In Irvine, there are some factors that caused such a dramatic price increase that are non-fundamental... regardless of job losses, credit crunch, bank stinginess... these are still in play and will slow down the drops. IR may never mention it in the blog... but I think it is something to consider.

As for previous data, what I was asking for is for homes that were buiilt and sold new during the 90s bubble... did the prices drop significantly below the original sales price... in Irvine? A relative of mine bought a brand new KB home in Lake Forest during the up-peak... 1989... they ended up selling it in 1997 which was near bottom and the price was still more than what they bought it for. That same home right now is probably still priced double than what they sold it for.

And again... this only applies to new neighborhoods in the higher price category.

If we take IR's fundamentals... what should prices be at? What year? 2000 pricing? 1996 pricing? If we take the home I sold and roll it back 40%... that's still 70% higher than when it originally sold new in 1996.

I'm not afraid of missing any boat... I'm fine with sitting on the sidelines... in fact... I may become a life renter. I'm just commenting on how stubborn pricing will be in the newer areas at the higher end of Irvine.

If the house I'm renting in QH drops 40% from peak... that price is still only 13% less than what it sold for in 2002. I can see that happening... but like I said originally... not much lower than that.
 
I've updated 16 new escrows that hit the books over the last five days. Five of them have list prices over $1.2M, which is a bit of a rarity as the higher end has been very slow.

Couple of more closes down in a CS range of 185, which is firmly where February is running at right now although the sample size is still pretty small. If this somehow holds up through the whole month, Jan and Feb 2009 would have to be the worst two months for Irvine RE since the bubble burst.
 
So Ipo is a happy Ipo today? 9% drop in the CS Index in the past month and a half?

Looks like Crawford in TRanch finally closed, that thing was on the market forever. I remember a friend checking out that place last summer. I had to go to the second page on the Ipo site to find out what it was orginally listed for

Original List Price - $854,500

Sale Price - 760,000

Is there a way to look up their listing price history after it comes off the market? It'd be fun to see whether they adjusted it like 10 times to chase the market down.
 
24inIrvine said:
So Ipo is a happy Ipo today? 9% drop in the CS Index in the past month and a half?

Looks like Crawford in TRanch finally closed, that thing was on the market forever. I remember a friend checking out that place last summer. I had to go to the second page on the Ipo site to find out what it was orginally listed for

Original List Price - $854,500

Sale Price - 760,000

Is there a way to look up their listing price history after it comes off the market? It'd be fun to see whether they adjusted it like 10 times to chase the market down.
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If I was a potential median home buyer, I would indeed be quite happy. Those big declines haven't filtered up into the upper middle and higher end as yet. When I can get a 3600sf Mille Fleurs for $1M, that's when I'd really be happy. The last month or so is a nice leg down toward that goal though. I have more and more faith every day that my price point will arrive.

On a semi-related note, I confirmed with our landlord that they're not planning on coming back to the US this year and they would be happy to renew our lease when it expires. The wife has okayed another year so renters we will be until summer 2010.

Our landlords have even agreed to cover the materials cost for a door addition, between the master bedroom and bath, which I'll be doing myself once the door arrives. It's amazing how cheap such an upgrade is. Door + lockset + trim molding and paint will only be around $125.
 
freedomCM said:
ipo, how much has volumed dropped in the past few months in irvine?

and 185!!!
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January was slow compared to the number of escrows opened in December. My sense is that it's taking even longer to gets things closed... I think February will be a very slow month as well.
 
ipoplaya said:
freedomCM said:
ipo, how much has volumed dropped in the past few months in irvine?

and 185!!!
Click to expand...

January was slow compared to the number of escrows opened in December. My sense is that it's taking even longer to gets things closed... I think February will be a very slow month as well.
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February only has 28 days, a 10% decrease would be expected.
 
Wow, this place, in a very nice part of Tustin Ranch, just went for 25% discount off their 2004 purchase price - $1.25M. Love those REOs that are just killing the comps...

The previous buyers way overpaid for the place. Still, a sale price $300K less than the zillow estimate is amazing.

:)
 
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