Waiting to catch a wave? Surge of REO listings is unlikely.

The banks are just shooting themselves in the foot with the "two-years-of-free-rent" program. Pretty soon, everybody is going to want to be part of that program. If they foreclosed in a timely manner, this incentive wouldn't be there.
 
I?m confused about the decline in actual foreclosures since 2008. It seems that the number of defaults have gone up since 2008, but the number of foreclosures for sale have come down over the past year. I understand that the government programs along with the banks being overwhelmed, has delayed the process quite a bit. However there is a difference between delaying foreclosures and reducing foreclosures.



So my question is, with the same or even increased level of defaults as 2008, why have the number of foreclosures for sale dropped? I mean, even with a delay, shouldn?t the earlier defaults be coming on the market right now, like the ones that occurred in the first half of 2008?
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1252891348]<blockquote>The more I read the more it seems like the dysfunction in the RE market is going to last through much of the next decade. </blockquote>


Thats the problem in a simple statement right there.



And until we regulate these snake-oil sleezebag "</blockquote>


whenever we want to us the word Regulators, we should instead insert Barney Fife



SEC couldn't find anything wrong with madoff. It's a false sense of security.
 
[quote author="matt138" date=1253756902]SEC couldn't find anything wrong with madoff. </blockquote>


Say you have a problem with mice. You buy a cat, but she uses her claws to catch mice, and that grosses you out. You have the cat declawed, and it no longer catches mice. Who's fault is that - yours or the cat?



<blockquote>In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem. - Ronald Reagan, 1981</blockquote>


Say you have a problem with lack of securities enforcement. You have the SEC, but it has been habitually underfunded since 1981, and you don't like big government anyway. You send the SEC out to investigate Madoff six times, and they miss everything because they are in a hurry to get to the Enrons and WorldCom's and they are understaffed. Who's fault is that?



Some blame Chris Cox. I think they pinned that on on the wrong Republican.
 
<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/107799/delayed-foreclosures-stalk-market.html">Delayed Foreclosures Stalk Market </a>



Legal snarls, bureaucracy and well-meaning efforts to keep families in their homes are slowing the flow of properties headed toward foreclosure sales, even when borrowers are in deep distress. While that buys time for families to work out their problems, some analysts believe the delays are prolonging the mortgage crisis and creating a growing "shadow" inventory of pent-up supply that will eventually hit the market.



Thing that make you go Hmmmmm...
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1253758424]Some blame Chris Cox. I think they pinned that on on the wrong Republican.</blockquote>


Why are we limited to just one person, and (although it pains me to say) only Republicans? There were plenty of people who facilitated this train wreck.
 
[quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1253829460][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1253758424]Some blame Chris Cox. I think they pinned that on on the wrong Republican.</blockquote>


Why are we limited to just one person, and (although it pains me to say) only Republicans? There were plenty of people who facilitated this train wreck.</blockquote>


Well, it's always easiest to scapegoat one person. Certainly Clinton signed off on repealing Glass Steagall, but Contract With America crew ran it through. But somebody started it.



<img src="http://static.open.salon.com/files/reagan-failure1231279718.jpg" alt="" />



NOW can I have my Godless Pinko t shirt?
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1253720995]



... please go play catch by yourself on the 55 immediately.</blockquote>


No quite as poetic or concise as "go kick rocks on the 5." Reminds me of the days not long ago, when certain people would look at that article and say, "full of groundless speculation and nonsense. Where's the data?"



<sigh>



How much lead time do you think there is between the finished article and the published one? How far ahead is the discussion here on IHB than the mainstream? Pretty cool stuff.
 
[quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1253829460][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1253758424]Some blame Chris Cox. I think they pinned that on on the wrong Republican.</blockquote>


Why are we limited to just one person, and (although it pains me to say) only Republicans? There were plenty of people who facilitated this train wreck.</blockquote>
Robert Rubin most of all, but along with Rubin go Clinton, Summers, and Greenspan.
 
From Dr. Housing Bubble:





<em>?Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) ? The crash in U.S. home prices will probably resume because about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders have yet to hit the market, Amherst Securities Group LP analysts said.



The ?huge shadow inventory,? reflecting mortgages already being foreclosed upon or now delinquent and likely to be, compares with 1.27 million in 2005, the analysts led by Laurie Goodman wrote today in a report. Assuming no other homes are on the market, it would take 1.35 years to sell the properties based on the current pace of existing-home sales, they said.?



If that isn?t enough to satisfy the doubting Thomas in you, take the word from Bank of America:



?(WSJ) we are going to see a spike from now to the end of the year in foreclosures as we take people out of the running? for a loan modification or other alternatives, says a Bank of America Corp. spokeswoman. Foreclosure sales had dropped to ?abnormally low? levels in response to government efforts to stem foreclosures, she adds.?



In other words, gear up for round two of the housing bubble burst courtesy of the shadow inventory. 7 million homes may seem like a gigantic number. The reason the number will be huge is because we are now seeing problems in housing due to more historical reasons like unemployment. Obviously a loan modification is pointless if someone doesn?t even have a job. When you have banks openly acknowledging that more inventory will be hitting the market it is time to prepare and get your facts straight on Alt-A and option ARM products. </em>
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1254223340]Graphrix - What's the source of data for the auction backlog sheet (post #170)?



Inquiring minds would like to know.



-IR2</blockquote>


<a href="http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2009/09/26/foreclosure-filings-drop-but-backlog-grows/18385/">http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2009/09/26/foreclosure-filings-drop-but-backlog-grows/18385/</a>
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1254223340]Graphrix - What's the source of data for the auction backlog sheet (post #170)?



Inquiring minds would like to know.



-IR2</blockquote>


Sorry, I thought people still read the OCR... I guess that is why they are losing money, people don't read it. I do read the headlines on CR from Padilla's blog that sound interesting though.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1254165316]From Dr. Housing Bubble:





<em>?Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) ? The crash in U.S. home prices will probably resume because about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders have yet to hit the market, Amherst Securities Group LP analysts said.



The ?huge shadow inventory,? reflecting mortgages already being foreclosed upon or now delinquent and likely to be, compares with 1.27 million in 2005, the analysts led by Laurie Goodman wrote today in a report. Assuming no other homes are on the market, it would take 1.35 years to sell the properties based on the current pace of existing-home sales, they said.?



If that isn?t enough to satisfy the doubting Thomas in you, take the word from Bank of America:



?(WSJ) we are going to see a spike from now to the end of the year in foreclosures as we take people out of the running? for a loan modification or other alternatives, says a Bank of America Corp. spokeswoman. Foreclosure sales had dropped to ?abnormally low? levels in response to government efforts to stem foreclosures, she adds.?



In other words, gear up for round two of the housing bubble burst courtesy of the shadow inventory. 7 million homes may seem like a gigantic number. The reason the number will be huge is because we are now seeing problems in housing due to more historical reasons like unemployment. Obviously a loan modification is pointless if someone doesn?t even have a job. When you have banks openly acknowledging that more inventory will be hitting the market it is time to prepare and get your facts straight on Alt-A and option ARM products. </em></blockquote>


Let's assume the banks do foreclose en masse and sell them as REOs. I think it would make sense for them to mostly wait until next spring to do so-do you all agree? REO inventory is still extremely small for now-I'll bet the earliest that that will change will be early spring, in time for prime house selling season. The banks would be foolish to release the flood during the winter. Maybe they can trickle them out over time.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1254259403][quote author="awgee" date=1254165316]From Dr. Housing Bubble:





<em>?Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) ? The crash in U.S. home prices will probably resume because about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders have yet to hit the market, Amherst Securities Group LP analysts said.



The ?huge shadow inventory,? reflecting mortgages already being foreclosed upon or now delinquent and likely to be, compares with 1.27 million in 2005, the analysts led by Laurie Goodman wrote today in a report. Assuming no other homes are on the market, it would take 1.35 years to sell the properties based on the current pace of existing-home sales, they said.?



If that isn?t enough to satisfy the doubting Thomas in you, take the word from Bank of America:



?(WSJ) we are going to see a spike from now to the end of the year in foreclosures as we take people out of the running? for a loan modification or other alternatives, says a Bank of America Corp. spokeswoman. Foreclosure sales had dropped to ?abnormally low? levels in response to government efforts to stem foreclosures, she adds.?



In other words, gear up for round two of the housing bubble burst courtesy of the shadow inventory. 7 million homes may seem like a gigantic number. The reason the number will be huge is because we are now seeing problems in housing due to more historical reasons like unemployment. Obviously a loan modification is pointless if someone doesn?t even have a job. When you have banks openly acknowledging that more inventory will be hitting the market it is time to prepare and get your facts straight on Alt-A and option ARM products. </em></blockquote>


Let's assume the banks do foreclose en masse and sell them as REOs. I think it would make sense for them to mostly wait until next spring to do so-do you all agree? REO inventory is still extremely small for now-I'll bet the earliest that that will change will be early spring, in time for prime house selling season. The banks would be foolish to release the flood during the winter. Maybe they can trickle them out over time.</blockquote>


REO inventory is still extrememely small for now? Are you serious? Where is REO inventory extremely small? Or relative to what or when?
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1254239076][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1254223340]Graphrix - What's the source of data for the auction backlog sheet (post #170)?



Inquiring minds would like to know.



-IR2</blockquote>


Sorry, I thought people still read the OCR... I guess that is why they are losing money, people don't read it. I do read the headlines on CR from Padilla's blog that sound interesting though.</blockquote>


9,000 for OC only! Ouch!
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1254262158][quote author="Geotpf" date=1254259403][quote author="awgee" date=1254165316]From Dr. Housing Bubble:





<em>?Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) ? The crash in U.S. home prices will probably resume because about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders have yet to hit the market, Amherst Securities Group LP analysts said.



The ?huge shadow inventory,? reflecting mortgages already being foreclosed upon or now delinquent and likely to be, compares with 1.27 million in 2005, the analysts led by Laurie Goodman wrote today in a report. Assuming no other homes are on the market, it would take 1.35 years to sell the properties based on the current pace of existing-home sales, they said.?



If that isn?t enough to satisfy the doubting Thomas in you, take the word from Bank of America:



?(WSJ) we are going to see a spike from now to the end of the year in foreclosures as we take people out of the running? for a loan modification or other alternatives, says a Bank of America Corp. spokeswoman. Foreclosure sales had dropped to ?abnormally low? levels in response to government efforts to stem foreclosures, she adds.?



In other words, gear up for round two of the housing bubble burst courtesy of the shadow inventory. 7 million homes may seem like a gigantic number. The reason the number will be huge is because we are now seeing problems in housing due to more historical reasons like unemployment. Obviously a loan modification is pointless if someone doesn?t even have a job. When you have banks openly acknowledging that more inventory will be hitting the market it is time to prepare and get your facts straight on Alt-A and option ARM products. </em></blockquote>


Let's assume the banks do foreclose en masse and sell them as REOs. I think it would make sense for them to mostly wait until next spring to do so-do you all agree? REO inventory is still extremely small for now-I'll bet the earliest that that will change will be early spring, in time for prime house selling season. The banks would be foolish to release the flood during the winter. Maybe they can trickle them out over time.</blockquote>


REO inventory is still extrememely small for now? Are you serious? Where is REO inventory extremely small? Or relative to what or when?</blockquote>


How about REO inventory available for sale on the MLS is extremely small? Can we agree on that at least?
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1254267591][quote author="awgee" date=1254262158][quote author="Geotpf" date=1254259403][quote author="awgee" date=1254165316]From Dr. Housing Bubble:





<em>?Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) ? The crash in U.S. home prices will probably resume because about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders have yet to hit the market, Amherst Securities Group LP analysts said.



The ?huge shadow inventory,? reflecting mortgages already being foreclosed upon or now delinquent and likely to be, compares with 1.27 million in 2005, the analysts led by Laurie Goodman wrote today in a report. Assuming no other homes are on the market, it would take 1.35 years to sell the properties based on the current pace of existing-home sales, they said.?



If that isn?t enough to satisfy the doubting Thomas in you, take the word from Bank of America:



?(WSJ) we are going to see a spike from now to the end of the year in foreclosures as we take people out of the running? for a loan modification or other alternatives, says a Bank of America Corp. spokeswoman. Foreclosure sales had dropped to ?abnormally low? levels in response to government efforts to stem foreclosures, she adds.?



In other words, gear up for round two of the housing bubble burst courtesy of the shadow inventory. 7 million homes may seem like a gigantic number. The reason the number will be huge is because we are now seeing problems in housing due to more historical reasons like unemployment. Obviously a loan modification is pointless if someone doesn?t even have a job. When you have banks openly acknowledging that more inventory will be hitting the market it is time to prepare and get your facts straight on Alt-A and option ARM products. </em></blockquote>


Let's assume the banks do foreclose en masse and sell them as REOs. I think it would make sense for them to mostly wait until next spring to do so-do you all agree? REO inventory is still extremely small for now-I'll bet the earliest that that will change will be early spring, in time for prime house selling season. The banks would be foolish to release the flood during the winter. Maybe they can trickle them out over time.</blockquote>


REO inventory is still extrememely small for now? Are you serious? Where is REO inventory extremely small? Or relative to what or when?</blockquote>


How about REO inventory available for sale on the MLS is extremely small? Can we agree on that at least?</blockquote>
I do not care to agree or disagree. I want the truth.

Honestly, I do not know what the REO inventory available for sale on the MLS is, but if I was to guess, I would guess that in historic terms it is not extremely small or even small.
 
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