Waiting to catch a wave? Surge of REO listings is unlikely.

From Calculated Risk: <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/occ-and-ots-foreclosures-delinquencies.html">OCC and OTS: Foreclosures, Delinquencies increase in Q2 </a>



Quote: The mortgage data reported for the second quarter of 2009 continued to reflect negative trends influenced by weakness in economic conditions including high unemployment and declining home prices in weak housing markets. As a result, the number of seriously delinquent mortgages and foreclosures in process continued to increase. However, a lull in newly initiated foreclosures occurred as servicers worked to implement the ?Making Home Affordable? program during the second quarter.



There are two nices charts that I'm unable to post...anyway, a good read from CR once again!
 
Here is <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/jim-realtor-no-shortage-of-buyers.html">Jim the Realtor with "No shortage of Buyers"</a>.



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If watching Jim's video does not convince you that now is about the worst time to buy a home, I do not guess there is anything that would ever convince you.
 
Every single person I know who's looking to buy right now sounds miserable. And if someone does end up being able to close on a purchase, they immediately start second guessing themselves because they had to bid a lot more than they wanted to. It's an absolutely horrid environment for buyers right now so I just don't get the rush to buy.



With how absolutely screwed up our economy is, people are still unable to move out of the ingrained "buy now or be priced out forever" mindset. The whole economy has been in an irrational debt bubble for 30 years so I guess it's going to take a while for people to adjust to the new normal.
 
[quote author="Oxtail" date=1255004201]Every single person I know who's looking to buy right now sounds miserable. And if someone does end up being able to close on a purchase, they immediately start second guessing themselves because they had to bid a lot more than they wanted to. It's an absolutely horrid environment for buyers right now so I just don't get the rush to buy.



With how absolutely screwed up our economy is, people are still unable to move out of the ingrained "buy now or be priced out forever" mindset. The whole economy has been in an irrational debt bubble for 30 years so I guess it's going to take a while for people to adjust to the new normal.</blockquote>


My two cents is that as long as there a lot more buyers than sellers i.e. listings being bid up due to 20 offers coming in, then the market has not reached an equilibrium. In recent months I have finally drilled it into the Mrs. that right now is not a good time to purchase real estate. I have a friend who works in foreclosures and was recently interviewing with a new company who does business with Fannie Mae and Chase. One, Fannie Mae just lifted their moratorium on their foreclosures less than a month ago and two, the owner of this company met with senior execs of Chase recently and basically Chase has more foreclosures on the way then they know what to do with.



Don't expect anything to happen in the next couple of months as historically we are entering the slowest time of the year. But early next year we might start to see it. Hence the articles from WSJ and Bloomberg talking about 7 million foreclosures in the pipeline. Also if you check WSJ there is an article about how the Fed is worried about how the commercial sector is the next shoe to drop. Did anyone catch the OC Register recently about how the Irvine Company is defaulting on office buildings in San Diego??? I remember attending a Boss Talk at UC Irvine last fall where senior execs from Irvine Co., GE Real Estate and Sares Regis gave their opinion of the market. The general consensus was they were all concerned about the commercial backed securities and how they were set to mature in 2010 and 2011. Anyway, been a while since I've posted but just thought I'd get my word in on where I think we are heading...
 
[quote author="Bling Bling" date=1255010022]My two cents is that as long as there a lot more buyers than sellers i.e. listings being bid up due to 20 offers coming in, then the market has not reached an equilibrium. In recent months I have finally drilled it into the Mrs. that right now is not a good time to purchase real estate. I have a friend who works in foreclosures and was recently interviewing with a new company who does business with Fannie Mae and Chase. One, Fannie Mae just lifted their moratorium on their foreclosures less than a month ago and two, the owner of this company met with senior execs of Chase recently and basically <strong>Chase has more foreclosures on the way then they know what to do with.</strong>



Don't expect anything to happen in the next couple of months as historically we are entering the slowest time of the year. But early next year we might start to see it. Hence the articles from WSJ and Bloomberg talking about 7 million foreclosures in the pipeline. Also if you check WSJ there is an article about how the Fed is worried about how the commercial sector is the next shoe to drop. Did anyone catch the OC Register recently about how the Irvine Company is defaulting on office buildings in San Diego??? I remember attending a Boss Talk at UC Irvine last fall where senior execs from Irvine Co., GE Real Estate and Sares Regis gave their opinion of the market. The general consensus was they were all concerned about the commercial backed securities and how they were set to mature in 2010 and 2011. Anyway, been a while since I've posted but just thought I'd get my word in on where I think we are heading...</blockquote>


I've been trying for months to explain this to Geotpf, but alas... he doesn't get why banks would do this. Maybe now this will help for him and others to start to get what those with inside knowledge get.



Don't get me started on commercial and CMBS. It is a mess that makes New Century look clean.
 
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