US economic future

[nosuchreality]

There's no shortage of any in the stores.  Beef production has been largely flat over the last few years and we're up slightly from 2006.

Cost of production is up, quite dramatically.

Again, blue line, the real inflation pressure on your money is near 10% a year, not the 2-3% a year the political parties are lulling you to sleep with.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

There's no shortage of any in the stores.  Beef production has been largely flat over the last few years and we're up slightly from 2006.

Cost of production is up, quite dramatically.

Again, blue line, the real inflation pressure on your money is near 10% a year, not the 2-3% a year the political parties are lulling you to sleep with.

Even if true...inflation is measured the same way around the world...the US's rate is significantly lower than most other
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Can't keep kicking the can down the road forever...
http://inflationdata.com/articles/2013/06/08/tapering-fed-stimulus-program/

Yes you can, you just keep changing the official measure...

Have you bought beef or chicken lately?

Even by that graph, we are pretty okay as compared 2006/2007.

Also...meats are getting a little more expensive but pretty consistent with normal inflation
http://www.nationalchickencouncil.o...-and-retail-prices-for-chicken-beef-and-pork/

Good explanation: http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/q...-government-voluntarily-underreport-inflation

Also...SGS is basically an proposed alternative by basically one guy...not an widely accepted model. 
http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/80408/shadowstats-inflation-closer-truth-cpi

 

[Irvinecommuter]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-stagflation-2013-09-10

Meh...just more bears screaming bearish things.

 

[awgeecdcrez]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stagflation-the-feds-worst-nightmare-2013-07-23

Inflation talk has been going on since 2011...still no inflation.  Pretty much stuck at 1-2%.
http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/

Gold prices have recovered a little from the bottom of around $1,200 but we're pretty much at 2011 levels.

I think it is closer to 8% - 9% annually.

No, I don't believe government figures, and I think that those who do are naive.

 

[awgeecdcrez]

Can't keep kicking the can down the road forever...
http://inflationdata.com/articles/2013/06/08/tapering-fed-stimulus-program/

Yes you can, you just keep changing the official measure...

Have you bought beef or chicken lately?

Even by that graph, we are pretty okay as compared 2006/2007.

Also...meats are getting a little more expensive but pretty consistent with normal inflation
http://www.nationalchickencouncil.o...-and-retail-prices-for-chicken-beef-and-pork/

We are pretty ok compared to 2006-2007?  Why would you pick those years?  And how can 8% -10% currency devaluation be ok at all?  Is a devaluation of your savings by 10% every year ok with you?  Doesn't it set off any warning bells?  Or do we just pretend that it is inconsequential?  Does it concern anyone that the Fed is 'printing' billions of dollars every month and the consequence is a large tax on your income and lifestyle?

 

[awgeecdcrez]

im a bit iffy on the govs official numbers... they strategically leave out a few commodities... I forgot which ones exactly but if I remember correctly real estate is one of them?... maybe they have a good reason to leave it out but I dunno... im more of a mfg. industry person so not too knowledgeable about this area... but I do know ocean freight costs is more expensive now... there was a tremendous jump sometime around 2010ish and then the increase fluctuates here and there till now... :-\

Ocean freight costs more because 1) global demand and 2) fuel prices. 

Real Estate doesn't constitute "inflation" because it's not really a necessity.  I guess rental prices could be but there is no requirement that you own your home. 

More details: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm

Inflation only counts if the goods and services are necessary?  Huh?

 

[awgeecdcrez]

There's no shortage of any in the stores.  Beef production has been largely flat over the last few years and we're up slightly from 2006.

Cost of production is up, quite dramatically.

Again, blue line, the real inflation pressure on your money is near 10% a year, not the 2-3% a year the political parties are lulling you to sleep with.

Even if true...inflation is measured the same way around the world...the US's rate is significantly lower than most other
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

So it doesn't matter that you can purchase 10% less this year than last year as long as somebody else has it worse?  I am unsure of your reasoning, but do you realize that the Fed is taking money out of your pocket and giving to the banks in the form of 'inflation' which is more accurately called currency devaluation, and your purchasing power is not increased because another country has worse currency devaluation?

 

[changm55]

hmm... quick question... why do u guys try so hard to convince some stranger(s) on the forums whether there is no inflation or whether we are in a state of stagflation?

lol... just mind ur own bottom line and/or invest in what u think will benefit...

just let the ppl who disagree with u be suckers and get washed away with the wave of change while u progress... i want my grandkids and great grandkids to not have to work and be well off... i dont give a shit about nosuchreality or irvinecommuters grandkids or great grandkids...

ill check again in 4 months time to see if u guys are arguing about the same shit then... cause it took 4 months for 3 ppl to setup, incorporate a brand new company, R&D, and build this little thing below... ready for mass production by the end of the year @ 2000-2500 units per month... its a mid tier tool holder, undercuts our closest competitors LOWEST tier model by 20-23%...

all u guys do is argue this and argue that like pundits... if u really give a shit about americas role and/or future... then use ur creativity to come up with something new and ground breaking that will keep us on the top... its unfortunate to see a bunch of obviously highly intelligent folks squander their time on the forums trying to argue who is smarter then the other... im like the most mentally challenged n retarded of my family/friends lol but who cares?...

oh well... but then again, this is the beauty of america... cause 'MERICA~ FVCK YEAH~ let the suckers BURN~~~

 

[morekaos]

So what do you want to talk about?
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQFKtI6gn9Y[/youtube]

 

[awgeecdcrez]

Thanks for the advice Merika.  I wanna be just like you.

 

[nosuchreality]

hmm... quick question... why do u guys try so hard to convince some stranger(s) on the forums whether there is no inflation or whether we are in a state of stagflation?

lol... just mind ur own bottom line and/or invest in what u think will benefit...

Because misinformed people vote. In large numbers.

 

[usctrojancpa]

There's no shortage of any in the stores.  Beef production has been largely flat over the last few years and we're up slightly from 2006.

Cost of production is up, quite dramatically.

Again, blue line, the real inflation pressure on your money is near 10% a year, not the 2-3% a year the political parties are lulling you to sleep with.

Even if true...inflation is measured the same way around the world...the US's rate is significantly lower than most other
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

So it doesn't matter that you can purchase 10% less this year than last year as long as somebody else has it worse?  I am unsure of your reasoning, but do you realize that the Fed is taking money out of your pocket and giving to the banks in the form of 'inflation' which is more accurately called currency devaluation, and your purchasing power is not increased because another country has worse currency devaluation?

Inflation also benefits folks that have low long term fixed interest rate loans like a 3% mortgage or a 1.49% car loan. 

 

[awgeecdcrez]

There's no shortage of any in the stores.  Beef production has been largely flat over the last few years and we're up slightly from 2006.

Cost of production is up, quite dramatically.

Again, blue line, the real inflation pressure on your money is near 10% a year, not the 2-3% a year the political parties are lulling you to sleep with.

Even if true...inflation is measured the same way around the world...the US's rate is significantly lower than most other
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

So it doesn't matter that you can purchase 10% less this year than last year as long as somebody else has it worse?  I am unsure of your reasoning, but do you realize that the Fed is taking money out of your pocket and giving to the banks in the form of 'inflation' which is more accurately called currency devaluation, and your purchasing power is not increased because another country has worse currency devaluation?

Inflation also benefits folks that have low long term fixed interest rate loans like a 3% mortgage or a 1.49% car loan. 

Yeah, if you are myopic.
Even if you have a fixed rate mortgage, your wages will buy less of everything else.
Even if you have a fixed rate mortgage, a constant increase in wages puts you in a higher and higher tax bracket with no corresponding increase in purchasing power.
Even if you have a fixed rate mortgage, the average length of time a family keeps a house is 7 years, therefore you will be getting a new mortgage with a higher interest rate.

Bottom line, there is nothing good about currency devaluation and the supposed benefits are a load of crap fed to you by the banking industry.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

There's no shortage of any in the stores.  Beef production has been largely flat over the last few years and we're up slightly from 2006.

Cost of production is up, quite dramatically.

Again, blue line, the real inflation pressure on your money is near 10% a year, not the 2-3% a year the political parties are lulling you to sleep with.

Even if true...inflation is measured the same way around the world...the US's rate is significantly lower than most other
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

So it doesn't matter that you can purchase 10% less this year than last year as long as somebody else has it worse?  I am unsure of your reasoning, but do you realize that the Fed is taking money out of your pocket and giving to the banks in the form of 'inflation' which is more accurately called currency devaluation, and your purchasing power is not increased because another country has worse currency devaluation?

Inflation also benefits folks that have low long term fixed interest rate loans like a 3% mortgage or a 1.49% car loan. 

Yeah, if you are myopic.
Even if you have a fixed rate mortgage, your wages will buy less of everything else.
Even if you have a fixed rate mortgage, a constant increase in wages puts you in a higher and higher tax bracket with no corresponding increase in purchasing power.
Even if you have a fixed rate mortgage, the average length of time a family keeps a house is 7 years, therefore you will be getting a new mortgage with a higher interest rate.

Bottom line, there is nothing good about currency devaluation and the supposed benefits are a load of crap fed to you by the banking industry.

Helps with exports.

 

[paperboyNC]

A) There are claims that we are dramatically devaluing the dollar.

A: The dollar has gone up against the Euro. 1 dollar = 0.692 euro 5 years ago and = 0.7521 today. The dollar is near 4 year highs against the Yen.

B) There are claims that we are running historic deficits

A: The Federal Government's 2013 deficit is expected to be the lowest since the start of the great recession.

 

[usctrojancpa]

true... but your portfolio will be taking it in the shorts from any fixed income or bonds that you have.  This would also hammer most insurance policy holders.

Interesting write up on that here:
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/inflations-affect-on/62020

I don't have any bond investment, fixed income, or insurance policies.  I invest by the seat of my pants trading options...risky stuff which generates large returns.  I do have an IRA that has Index ETFs in it. 

 

[usctrojancpa]

i used to do that too... but the wife's risk profile is much less than mine... so i heeded the advice of our financial adviser and diversified.
Plus, as you start to think about retirement and the kids future, you have to make sure you are playing with house money and still can bring home the bacon when its closing time.

Trust me - i think there's arbitrage potential in a variety of situations, but you have to have finished your due diligence in reading 10Ks & industry reports before pulling the trigger.

I agree that people that are married with kids will have a much different investing risk profile than I will.  I'm fortunate enough that I'm trading with house money at this point so I sleep better at night that I only have risk capital on the line.  As they say, no gutts....no glory!