Trying to buy in Irvine is NO Fun

[irvinehomeowner]

Poor Indie... still flailing.

I'm going to stick with my generalities and you can continue to focus on the minutiae. When 3br homes are going for over $1mil in Irvine, that's similar to a beach city premium to me... and non-fundamental.

Do people buy those homes for "solely financial" reasons?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Threads I'm involved in on Talkirvine generally have the highest viewcounts, and post counts. I'm generally well liked, and followed on this forum.

LOL.

 

[IndieDev]

200k over fundamentals? That would put this house at 2003 prices based on zillow estimates. So in 8 years, if prices appreciated at exactly 3.5% per year from your 2003, this house would be ..drum roll...840k.

I guess if you believe that all homes should be back 2003 prices...that's a whole different argument but not one based on "fundamentals."

To be fair, $608k is a short sale price, which are usually low to generate interest and more offers to the bank.

The $600K shortsale does mean NOTHING in the context of comps for the time being.

The property in question was foreclosed and has gone REO as of 12 days ago. It's no longer a shortsale, and has been on the MLS as a STANDARD sale for almost two weeks at $608,000, and still no takers!http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/18921-Antioch-Dr-92603/home/4738176

Does it mean something now baby?

Let me guess, the foreign cash chindians are going to wait another two weeks before buying this one up at $800,000 to support "comps".

Fundamentals! Where you at edhne? Where you at baby?!

 

[IndieDev]

Umm, I never bet edhne that house would close for $600k.

Here was my bet:

I will bet you that the home won't transact within $10,000 of the "Solid comp" price you claimed ($839,000). If it does, I'll pay you $100 for every thousand dollars within that $10,000 buffer up to $1,000. So if it transacts at $834,000, I'll pay you $500, if it sells at $839,000, you get the full $1,000. However, for every thousand it it sells below the $10,000 buffer, you give me $100 up to $1000. So if it sells at $819,000 and below, I get a full $1,000.

That's a much more realistic bet to observe on whose fundamentals are in check. You game?

So yeah, at $808k, I would've taken $1,000 that edhne couldn't afford to lose baby!

It also only proves that a sucker overpaid (kind of like you Starlight) when he could've gotten a house with more square footage two blocks away for $200k less.

 

[IndieDev]

Where's the peanut gallery? The silence is deafening people. No one wants to play the Turtle Rock is different game anymore?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

The property in question was foreclosed and has gone REO as of 12 days ago. It's no longer a shortsale, and has been on the MLS as a STANDARD sale for almost two weeks at $608,000, and still no takers!http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/18921-Antioch-Dr-92603/home/4738176

Does it mean something now baby?

So it went back to the bank for $805k... it's been available for 2 weeks at $608k... it still means nothing until it closes (and considering that Biddle closed over $800k, you're still $200k off).

I find it funny that you hedge your bets to favor you. Wasn't your fundamental evaluation of Biddle $600k yet your low value on the bet was $819k... so you don't really practice what you preach. And since you think the "sucker" overpaid by $200k, shouldn't your threshold be $608k? A fair bet would have been if it closes below $700k you win... splitting the difference between your $600k and ed's $800k, but you wouldn't make that bet would you?

It's actually difficult to bet on a specific real estate transaction because you never know what can happen, I could be technical and say since Antioch sold back to bank at $805k, your $608k did mean nothing.

Like I said before, REX Realty listed a NWP home for something like $400k, it ended up selling near the $900k mark... did that listing price mean nothing? Yes.

For fun let's try Antioch -- you say $608k and the comps looks like $700k+, so let's split it, will it close under $650k or over?

 

[IndieDev]

Aw yeah, the peanut gallery returns once again.

I specifically told edhne that corrections happen "over time", and that it wouldn't happen immediately, and it looks like I was right. Biddle Drive had to chop off over $30,000 to get sold. You can call it "hedging" my bets, but it's simply fundamentals which have helped me slay two pretenders already in the form of edhne, and NonFCB. I'm not going to bet that corrections will happen over the course of a few months after the market has been haywire for nearly a decade. That would be Guess-O-Nomics, I work under Funda-nomics, remember? 

Let's move on, that's the past. Now we have a standard sale home at my fundamental valuation on the market sitting for 2 weeks. It only takes one to crush comps.

I'll bet you $500 straight up (no contingencies, etc) that it will close for under $650k. Either you vanquish me once and for all, or you join the hit list of slayed pretenders with edhne, and NonFCB. Pull some dough out of your Quail Hill fund and let's do it baby.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Although I can spare the $500 (even though you think I can't)... I try not to gamble on things I don't have any control over... that wouldn't be financially wise right?

Outliers happen... and I have no idea what other problems that house may have. If it's in reasonable condition it should close nearer to comps which I believe are $700k+.

And I thought you didn't like posting images? I actually can imagine you in  that Spidey suit.

 

[IndieDev]

Although I can spare the $500 (even though you think I can't)... I try not to gamble on things I don't have any control over... that wouldn't be financially wise right?

Outliers happen... and I have no idea what other problems that house may have. If it's in reasonable condition it should close nearer to comps which I believe are $700k+.

And I thought you didn't like posting images? I actually can imagine you in  that Spidey suit.

Here's something I can imagine you wearing:

Seriously IHO,

 

[usctrojancpa]

If it's in reasonable condition it should close nearer to comps which I believe are $700k+.

A 40 year old fixer-upper? I doubt that this is in reasonable condition.

My prediction: it will sell for 620K to a flipper, completely renovated and then sell for 720K.

Not enough margin for a flipper...they'd have to buy it for around $550k to make it worth their while.

 

[so_scared]

Aw yeah, the peanut gallery returns once again.

I specifically told edhne that corrections happen "over time", and that it wouldn't happen immediately, and it looks like I was right. Biddle Drive had to chop off over $30,000 to get sold. You can call it "hedging" my bets, but it's simply fundamentals which have helped me slay two pretenders already in the form of edhne, and NonFCB. I'm not going to bet that corrections will happen over the course of a few months after the market has been haywire for nearly a decade. That would be Guess-O-Nomics, I work under Funda-nomics, remember? 

Let's move on, that's the past. Now we have a standard sale home at my fundamental valuation on the market sitting for 2 weeks. It only takes one to crush comps.

I'll bet you $500 straight up (no contingencies, etc) that it will close for under $650k. Either you vanquish me once and for all, or you join the hit list of slayed pretenders with edhne, and NonFCB. Pull some dough out of your Quail Hill fund and let's do it baby.

Because you know this home is a standard sale?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Here's something I can imagine you wearing:

Now you're dressing me up in your mind? Shameful. Is that shirt from your closet?

I feel my CompONomics position is stronger than your FundaNomics one because as you said yourself, it will take time for homes to adjust fundamentally, and comps are more important to banks.

But like a smart guy on this thread said:

One point of clarification... even if one or the other of you does have the better valuation method, the rubber hits the road when the buyer decides to make an offer, and the seller decides to accept or reject it.  Even if it is an apparently "great" offer, it's only valid when the seller agrees to it.  In individual cases the buyer and seller's motivation levels are the key driver to what the home will or won't sell for.

What it "should" sell for gets dangerous without knowing that info...

So really, while I think it favors me (again... being a fixer brings that into question), I don't want to end up wearing your other shirt:

 

[IndieDev]

I feel my CompONomics position is stronger than your FundaNomics

Then take the bet, you do a lot of talking/typing, why not put some merit behind it finally? $500 should be a drop in the bucket for someone who dreams of Quail Hill.

Okay let's do $300, and the loser buys the winner a $50 H-Mart Gift Card.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Sorry... the answer is still no.

I'm not looking to "vanquish" you... I'm just trying to illustrate that pricing in Irvine is non-fundamental (which you admit) and is why the OP says it's no fun to buy in Irvine.

Do I believe the prices are falling? Yes... I think everyone agrees on that point... but will it drop as far as your fundamentals say? No one knows... even you said you can't be a fortune teller and won't make any predictions X years into the future.

 

[LookieLucy]

Think we are going to sign our contract tomorrow for a brand new shiny Stonegate home. I know it's not like the prices have changed. It's still expensive and prices will probably drop and more incentives will probably be offered.

But...

1. Can't a mom go to the communtity pool without seeing people drinking and/or smoking out?
2. After reading the thread about suicides and murders in existing homes, I think a new home sounds quite nice!

-lookielucy

:'(

Reasons:

1. Being outbid by an all cash buyer.
2. Interesting properties are sold before we can even view them.
3. Inventory seems so limited.
4. Everyone says wait but we have been waiting for years. And even when we try we are unsuccessful.

Frustrating and sad.

Living in Irvine seems like a dream. And looking for a house is a nightmare.

Sorry had to vent.  :'(

 

[frank69m]

2. After reading the thread about suicides and murders in existing homes, I think a new home sounds quite nice!

How do you know if 125 years ago and Indian didn't get shot by an arrow and died in that plot of land you have? 

 

[LookieLucy]

That thought did cross my mind. 

 

[rkp]

My parents house was built in the 30s.  I always wonder about the previous owners and what their lives were like. 

What area did you go to where you saw people drinking and smoking out by the pool? 

 

[rkp]

The $600K shortsale does mean NOTHING in the context of comps for the time being.

The property in question was foreclosed and has gone REO as of 12 days ago. It's no longer a shortsale, and has been on the MLS as a STANDARD sale for almost two weeks at $608,000, and still no takers!http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/18921-Antioch-Dr-92603/home/4738176

Does it mean something now baby?

Let me guess, the foreign cash chindians are going to wait another two weeks before buying this one up at $800,000 to support "comps".

Fundamentals! Where you at edhne? Where you at baby?!

I am amazed that the bank bought it for $805K and then immediately listed it for $608K.  Why not just start the bids at $600K and save the time and commission costs?  Does this process feel normal to you?  I have seen REOs sell for less than bank purchased frequently but not for $200K less.  Also does it seem normal that the bank would allow tenants to stay in the property? 

From my POV, the context of this house wasnt whether or not it would sell for $600K but that its not a valid comp.  I wrote that "Without seeing the actual damage and work needed to be done, then its just a useless number.  My gut says there is substantial work needed to be done to make it like the other properties that closed."

As far as a comp goes, if this house needs $200K more of repair, then it says that the neighborhood houses are currently transacting at $800K.  Like I said earlier, without knowing the condition of the house, its really a useless number. 

A bet I would consider is that it would cost at least $100K to bring it to the same condition as 18962 ANTIOCH Dr. 

 

[IndieDev]

Tulipmania, and it continues!