Trying to buy in Irvine is NO Fun

[IndieDev]

Uh... so what does "and the comps look like $700k+" mean to you?

It is in english. Are you having reading comprehension issues again?

And did you stand behind that "claim" when I called you on it?

I'll let your cowardice speak for itself:

Although I can spare the $500 (even though you think I can't)... I try not to gamble on things I don't have any control over... that wouldn't be financially wise right?

I rest my case.

 

[IndieDev]

All this talk is not worth the time unless money is involved.

IHO, if you really want to be the man who "claimed" that Turtle Rock homes in this range are in the 700s, let's make if official.

I'll bet you a $500 friendly wager that based on market weakness in the area, and the way trends are currently for the Irvine market, that Antioch will not close over $700,000.

If you want to be the $700,000k man, then put a little dough on it. Keyboarding is cheap, let's at least make it worth $500.

And the winner donates the $500 to the charity of his choice?

I'll donate to ANY charity that is mutually agreed upon, and that either party has no connections to, or ability to benefit from.

 

[IndieDev]

See? Where did IHO go? He was just going tit-for-tat 5 minutes ago, but now he's suddenly disappeared.

This happens every time. I'm not trying to cyber-bully IHO, but the guy will say things like "this is a price anomaly" or "this is an outlier" when it comes to price weakness in Irvine, but when it comes down to it, he really doesn't believe anything he types.

But he'll argue for 20 posts about it. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

All this talk is not worth the time unless money is involved.

IHO, if you really want to be the man who "claimed" that Turtle Rock homes in this range are in the 700s, let's make if official.

I'll bet you a $500 friendly wager that based on market weakness in the area, and the way trends are currently for the Irvine market, that Antioch will not close over $700,000.

If you want to be the $700,000k man, then put a little dough on it. Keyboarding is cheap, let's at least make it worth $500.

I don't need to prove anything to you.

I was just countering your viewpoint and correcting some of your observations.

And since it's months later, who knows what's going to happen, as you've said, some have closed higher, some lower... for all I know, the $700k comp value I mentioned 4 months ago may have changed (I don't track TRock homes).

I do notice how wisely you hedge your wagers... reading back... your claims was Biddle should only be worth $600k, it was listed at $839k yet your bet would only go as low as $819k ($20k is not a large buffer for real estate transactions). If you truly believed that Biddle was not worth even $800k, why not lower your threshold to $700k? Even at $800k, you would have still lost since it closed at $808k... but you don't want to recognize that.

On Antioch... you were so sure it was a $600k house, but it never sold. Went back to the bank at $805k, then they listed it at $608k and you were positive that it would sell... you even bet $500 it would close below $650k (which I did not take because I don't foolishly bet money on things as unpredictable as real estate). Now... since it hasn't sold at that "REO list price" of $608k... and they are actively listing it above $700k, your new threshold is $700k (higher than before)? If the market is so weak, why not lower your threshold to $600k?

The funny thing is... 4 months later... I actually think Antioch could sell closer to $650k, if not lower. I haven't looked at comps... but considering how long it's been, there must be really something wrong with that home and unless the bank puts in some improvements it could go for less than $700k (which was why my over/under was $650k back in July).

And keyboarding may be cheap... but it's worth my time to see you hem and haw all over the place and trying to bully me with your "I have more money than you so let's bet" rhetoric. If it's not worth your time, then stop posting in this thread... because I guarantee you I will respond if I feel you are misrepresenting my opinions here. And there is nothing wrong with that, we all know that's how you roll... just don't be so sore about it... you open the can... eat the worms.

 

[homer_simpson]

We should all move to Temecula!

 

[irvinehomeowner]

See? Where did IHO go? He was just going tit-for-tat 5 minutes ago, but now he's suddenly disappeared.

Sorry man... you're not a priority... excuse me if I didn't reply instantly to your challenge... you want me to give you my phone number so you can call me instead?

As you can see, I was trying to intelligently respond to you. It's not as easy as just typing "Wanna bet?", or "Put your money where your keyboard is!" or "My father can beat up your father!".

Relax.... you might strain something.

This happens every time. I'm not trying to cyber-bully IHO, but the guy will say things like "this is a price anomaly" or "this is an outlier" when it comes to price weakness in Irvine, but when it comes down to it, he really doesn't believe anything he types.

But he'll argue for 20 posts about it. 

I have never claimed there is no price weakness in Irvine. I just use concrete practices like comparables to determine a true current valuation for homes rather than a "I'm smarter than you and have more money and know more people" approach.

You call that "cheerleading"... but it's the same method that banks and realtors use (unless USC uses Indie's Fundanomics when he negotiates prices for his clients).

 

[irvinehomeowner]

We should all move to Temecula!

Only if Hillary becomes president... and if there is Donut Star / Star Wok Express there.

 

[IndieDev]

we all know that's how you roll...

Who is "we"? I don't see anyone jumping on the IHO bandwagon.

This is between you and I. It's not about proving who has more money, for all I know you could be Donald Bren's grandson, I don't care. I don't even care that you have an opinion that greatly differs from mine.

But you have to ask yourself, if you do have one, an opinion that is, why throw it out there if you aren't willing to stand behind it? That's just being weak. That's the kind of character attribute I simply can't respect. You will defend your opinion until someone calls you on it, then it's "Uh.... well... the thing is...I don't have to prove anything...I don't gamble... I was just countering your viewpoint..."

One thing I've learned is if you ever go into business with anyone, respect yourself enough to stand behind your own words. If you can't do that, don't take the money, and admit you were wrong. Everyone will be better for it.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

And the winner donates the $500 to the charity of his choice?

I know Indie is your buddy... but let's ask you, since you are actually an active realtor in Irvine.

What is the comp value of Antioch? And... what do you think, with your experience, this would transact at?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

we all know that's how you roll...

Who is "we"? I don't see anyone jumping on the IHO bandwagon.

This is between you and I. It's not about proving who has more money, for all I know you could be Donald Bren's grandson, I don't care. I don't even care that you have an opinion that greatly differs from mine.

But you have to ask yourself, if you do have one, an opinion that is, why throw it out there if you aren't willing to stand behind it? That's just being weak. That's the kind of character attribute I simply can't respect. You will defend your opinion until someone calls you on it, then it's "Uh.... well... the thing is...I don't have to prove anything...I don't gamble... I was just countering your viewpoint..."

One thing I've learned is if you ever go into business with anyone, respect yourself enough to stand behind your own words. If you can't do that, don't take the money, and admit you were wrong. Everyone will be better for it.

Only you think that not standing behind your word = not taking a bet.

I have explained my position and still stand behind what I've posted, which I keep explaining... just because you have problems being able to read and understand that is your issue not mine.

And in the end, if my opinion turns out incorrect, I'll own up to it (I believe I have in the past). You still haven't admitted that Biddle closing at $808k was not was you expected.

 

[so_scared]

And the winner donates the $500 to the charity of his choice?

I know Indie is your buddy... but let's ask you, since you are actually an active realtor in Irvine.

What is the comp value of Antioch? And... what do you think, with your experience, this would transact at?

Has either of you even seen the property? I actually saw it because I put in a bid while it was a short sale. This house is in total POS condition. Regardless of where it closes, it would most likely be an outlier given its condition so no point in asking USCT to value it unless he has seen it in person.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/19131-Biddle-Dr-92603/home/4739506(this was another foreclosure. It was used as an old person home and was horrible condition as well. Maybe bank spruced it up for sale. Didn't see it after the foreclosure.)

 

[usctrojancpa]

And the winner donates the $500 to the charity of his choice?

I know Indie is your buddy... but let's ask you, since you are actually an active realtor in Irvine.

What is the comp value of Antioch? And... what do you think, with your experience, this would transact at?

Let me run comps and get back to you with my guestimate on that later on this evening. 

 

[usctrojancpa]

And the winner donates the $500 to the charity of his choice?

I know Indie is your buddy... but let's ask you, since you are actually an active realtor in Irvine.

What is the comp value of Antioch? And... what do you think, with your experience, this would transact at?

Has either of you even seen the property? I actually saw it because I put in a bid while it was a short sale. This house is in total POS condition. Regardless of where it closes, it would most likely be an outlier given its condition so no point in asking USCT to value it unless he has seen it in person.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/19131-Biddle-Dr-92603/home/4739506(this was another foreclosure. It was used as an old person home and was horrible condition as well. Maybe bank spruced it up for sale. Didn't see it after the foreclosure.)

That's a good idea, I'll be around UCI later on this afternoon so I'll drop by and take a peek.

 

[IndieDev]

And in the end, if my opinion turns out incorrect, I'll own up to it (I believe I have in the past). You still haven't admitted that Biddle closing at $808k was not was you expected.

Right.

I will bet you that the home won't transact within $10,000 of the "Solid comp" price you claimed ($839,000). If it does, I'll pay you $100 for every thousand dollars within that $10,000 buffer up to $1,000. So if it transacts at $834,000, I'll pay you $500, if it sells at $839,000, you get the full $1,000. However, for every thousand it it sells below the $10,000 buffer, you give me $100 up to $1000. So if it sells at $819,000 and below, I get a full $1,000.

That's a much more realistic bet to observe on whose fundamentals are in check. You game?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

And the winner donates the $500 to the charity of his choice?

I know Indie is your buddy... but let's ask you, since you are actually an active realtor in Irvine.

What is the comp value of Antioch? And... what do you think, with your experience, this would transact at?

Has either of you even seen the property? I actually saw it because I put in a bid while it was a short sale. This house is in total POS condition. Regardless of where it closes, it would most likely be an outlier given its condition so no point in asking USCT to value it unless he has seen it in person.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/19131-Biddle-Dr-92603/home/4739506(this was another foreclosure. It was used as an old person home and was horrible condition as well. Maybe bank spruced it up for sale. Didn't see it after the foreclosure.)

That's why I would think it foolish to bet money on it. Maybe Indie has seen it and that's why he's so trigger happy on betting.

Even if I had seen it, betting on a specific real estate transaction price is risky for anyone. That's the point I'm trying to make yet Indie is trying to tie it to my manhood.

Indie: This home should be $600k.
Me: The comps say $700k.
Indie: Fundamentals disagree.
Me: Companomics say otherwise.
Indie: Then bet on it.
Me: Why should I?
Indie: Because that's what a real man would do.

Comical.

And be careful... Indie says you can't say "outlier" without standing behind it with money.

 

[IndieDev]

And the winner donates the $500 to the charity of his choice?

I know Indie is your buddy... but let's ask you, since you are actually an active realtor in Irvine.

What is the comp value of Antioch? And... what do you think, with your experience, this would transact at?

Has either of you even seen the property? I actually saw it because I put in a bid while it was a short sale. This house is in total POS condition. Regardless of where it closes, it would most likely be an outlier given its condition so no point in asking USCT to value it unless he has seen it in person.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/19131-Biddle-Dr-92603/home/4739506(this was another foreclosure. It was used as an old person home and was horrible condition as well. Maybe bank spruced it up for sale. Didn't see it after the foreclosure.)

That's a good idea, I'll be around UCI later on this afternoon so I'll drop by and take a peek.

Take pictures. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

@Indie:

So now you're saying that you feel Biddle is worth at least $819k?

The parameters of your bet do not reflect your stance on fundamentals... which is why I said you hedge your bets in your favor.

If you truly believe that Biddle is $200k overvalued... then your bet threshold should have been $639k... not $819k. Who's not standing behind his beliefs now?

 

[IndieDev]

@Indie:

So now you're saying that you feel Biddle is worth at least $819k?

The parameters of your bet do not reflect your stance on fundamentals... which is why I said you hedge your bets in your favor.

If you truly believe that Biddle is $200k overvalued... then your bet threshold should have been $639k... not $819k. Who's not standing behind his beliefs now?

Uh... I don't know... I don't bet on stuff I can't control... Hey USCTrojan... what is it really worth in your opinion... I never claimed that... I'm just counter pointing your point on that other point....

 

[usctrojancpa]

We should all move to Temecula!

Hell no, way too hot in the summer time...there's a reason I moved from Vegas back to OC (100+ degree summers for 3-4 months straight was at the top of the list).

 

[IndieDev]

Temecula ain't that bad for a 3 day weekend visit (for you married types out there looking to get away).