Trump Tax Reform and Home Prices

[Irvinecommuter]

This is just negotiating with maximum leverage.  I don't know why Rubio cares so much about the child tax credit, but he got what he wanted.

Get ready to pay higher taxes Irvine-ites, so I can get my 3.7% tax reduction!!

Not me, pass-thru income FTW! Plus I used to be fully phased out of SALT via AMT, now I might actually get a deduction for it. 

I assume your not going to give your staff a raise like GOP members are saying. (Small business owners are going to make more money and they are going to give more to their workers)

That has always been a myth .  As someone who has closely worked with very senior levels of management as a consultant, I can tell you they give a cr**p about workers - they are nothing more than numbers on a spreadsheet to be shrunk as they merge and acquire and get sold.  As companies have grown bigger and bigger with lesser competition, this is one reason why middle class wages have failed to keep pace.

As to smaller businesses, they pay their workers more only when they are forced to, to retain or acquire talent .  To that extent, if consumer confidence remains high and unemployment keeps falling I can see wages rise and more workers get hired , but it will not be because business owners suddenly are feeling generous from additional money in their pockets . There are obviously exceptions.

Many GOP voters are dumb-i-fied from Fox News  but even they understand this bill is not driven by logic to help workers, hence its unpopularity.

As someone else said, current GOP is so boneheaded that they have achieved the unique feat of making Obamacare popular and tax cuts unpopular

This is also probably the worst time to cut taxes.  End of a boom cycle, low unemployment, and raising interest rates.  Not to mention the global economy basically states that even if companies hire new workers, it is not going to be in this country.

 

[zubs]

One of the biggest things IHB Larry relied on for his predictions to be correct was a rising interest rate.  I mean how long can 3-4% interest last?!?
It's been 10 years now.  Is it finally going to spike?

I think Japan has been in low interest rates for 30 years now.

Interest rates will never go up significantly again...not in our lifetime..unless we go into some great depression/end of world scenario.

I remember how hard it was for that 0.25% interest increase last year.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

One of the biggest things IHB Larry relied on for his predictions to be correct was a rising interest rate.  I mean how long can 3-4% interest last?!?
It's been 10 years now.  Is it finally going to spike?

I think Japan has been in low interest rates for 30 years now.

Interest rates will never go up significantly again...not in our lifetime..unless we go into some great depression/end of world scenario.

I remember how hard it was for that 0.25% interest increase last year.

It will go up...just not to 10-15%.  I think it will settle at around 7-8%

Japan's problem is also cultural and demographic.  Japan has almost zero immigration and basically excluded married women from working.  The zibatsu system is broken and they don't know how to fix it.  It is also getting significantly older demographically.

 

[fortune11]

This is just negotiating with maximum leverage.  I don't know why Rubio cares so much about the child tax credit, but he got what he wanted.

Get ready to pay higher taxes Irvine-ites, so I can get my 3.7% tax reduction!!

Not me, pass-thru income FTW! Plus I used to be fully phased out of SALT via AMT, now I might actually get a deduction for it. 

I assume your not going to give your staff a raise like GOP members are saying. (Small business owners are going to make more money and they are going to give more to their workers)

That has always been a myth .  As someone who has closely worked with very senior levels of management as a consultant, I can tell you they give a cr**p about workers - they are nothing more than numbers on a spreadsheet to be shrunk as they merge and acquire and get sold.  As companies have grown bigger and bigger with lesser competition, this is one reason why middle class wages have failed to keep pace.

As to smaller businesses, they pay their workers more only when they are forced to, to retain or acquire talent .  To that extent, if consumer confidence remains high and unemployment keeps falling I can see wages rise and more workers get hired , but it will not be because business owners suddenly are feeling generous from additional money in their pockets . There are obviously exceptions.

Many GOP voters are dumb-i-fied from Fox News  but even they understand this bill is not driven by logic to help workers, hence its unpopularity.

As someone else said, current GOP is so boneheaded that they have achieved the unique feat of making Obamacare popular and tax cuts unpopular

This is also probably the worst time to cut taxes.  End of a boom cycle, low unemployment, and raising interest rates.  Not to mention the global economy basically states that even if companies hire new workers, it is not going to be in this country.

+1

One of my colleagues works with clients is in asset mgmt. biz and he told me that (God forbid) if we hit a recession for some reason soon, these tax cuts and the resulting deficit will make it that much more difficult to do anything to fix the economy when its most needed.

Sorry if this offends anyone but most small business owners are very short term focused in my experience (understandably so since many small businesses have shorter tenures) and while they may be cheering on tax cuts now, they will be the first ones to feel the pain when and if the economy overheats as a result and we land into a recession. Republican administrations are usually very good at that if history is any guide. 

 

[Liar Loan]

So taxes will be lowered and the Obamacare mandate will be repealed in about a week's time.  Has the #Resistance succeeded at doing anything yet?

 

[Irvinecommuter]

So taxes will be lowered and the Obamacare mandate will be repealed in about a week's time.  Has the #Resistance succeeded at doing anything yet?

It is pretty hilarious that you are touting a tax plan that has the support about 30% of the population and has been panned by just about every economists out there as some legislative success. 

You can hold on to that when the Dems take back Congress in 2018 and Trump is impeached.

 

[Liar Loan]

If you can muster 67 Senate votes, then Mike Pence will be your new President. 

 

[Irvinecommuter]

If you can muster 67 Senate votes, then Mike Pence will be your new President. 

Assuming Mike Pence stays on and not implicated.  Paul Ryan already sees the writing on the wall.

And then that tax plan will get wiped out and the Dems should just go straight into single-payer.

 

[usctrojancpa]

This is just negotiating with maximum leverage.  I don't know why Rubio cares so much about the child tax credit, but he got what he wanted.

Get ready to pay higher taxes Irvine-ites, so I can get my 3.7% tax reduction!!

Not me, pass-thru income FTW! Plus I used to be fully phased out of SALT via AMT, now I might actually get a deduction for it. 

I assume your not going to give your staff a big raise (more than a merit raise) or higher more people like GOP members are saying. (Small business owners are going to make more money and they are going to give more to their workers)

I don't have any staff...just me, myself, and I but I do use colleagues to help me with open houses when I have 2 on the same day and I pay them for their time.

So are you going to hire someone?
I already know the answer. You will only hire someone if it make business sense. (So the tax reform is not magical like the GOP are selling)

USC will probably buy another Porsche. As per GOP, Porsche will increase their sales, and will employ more people, resulting in a job growth and stability. LOLs

I did have a .2GT3 on order before the tax bill got proposed. 

 

[fortune11]

So taxes will be lowered and the Obamacare mandate will be repealed in about a week's time.  Has the #Resistance succeeded at doing anything yet?

Alabama turned blue thanks to organized voter turnout. And this will happen again and again.  while you keep gloating your way into oblivion. 

Reminds me of cocky democrats in 2008 and how they paid a heavy price for it in 3 subsequent election cycles.  GOP is about to go through the ringer and there aren't enough fox-addled older white male voters to save them

 

[jmoney74]

Mortgage interest deduct going to 750k now?

 

[usctrojancpa]

Actually, his tax write off for the Porsche is going to shrink, so I think you're wrong about that. 

That's why I got a more grown up car like the Cayenne (which will be replaced by the Macan S in Jan). 

 

[usctrojancpa]

One of the biggest things IHB Larry relied on for his predictions to be correct was a rising interest rate.  I mean how long can 3-4% interest last?!?
It's been 10 years now.  Is it finally going to spike?

I think Japan has been in low interest rates for 30 years now.

Interest rates will never go up significantly again...not in our lifetime..unless we go into some great depression/end of world scenario.

I remember how hard it was for that 0.25% interest increase last year.

It will go up...just not to 10-15%.  I think it will settle at around 7-8%

Japan's problem is also cultural and demographic.  Japan has almost zero immigration and basically excluded married women from working.  The zibatsu system is broken and they don't know how to fix it.  It is also getting significantly older demographically.

7-8% interest rates?  Yeah right, not in our lifetime.  If rates went up to those levels we'll be in the hurt locker...our deficit is too high to carry that kind of interest rate.  I say the 10-year bond rate don't go over 4% in the next decade plus and we'll see a sub 2% print before we see a 4% print.

 

[lnc]

One of the biggest things IHB Larry relied on for his predictions to be correct was a rising interest rate.  I mean how long can 3-4% interest last?!?
It's been 10 years now.  Is it finally going to spike?

I think Japan has been in low interest rates for 30 years now.

Interest rates will never go up significantly again...not in our lifetime..unless we go into some great depression/end of world scenario.

I remember how hard it was for that 0.25% interest increase last year.

It will go up...just not to 10-15%.  I think it will settle at around 7-8%

Japan's problem is also cultural and demographic.  Japan has almost zero immigration and basically excluded married women from working.  The zibatsu system is broken and they don't know how to fix it.  It is also getting significantly older demographically.

7-8% interest rates?  Yeah right, not in our lifetime.  If rates went up to those levels we'll be in the hurt locker...our deficit is too high to carry that kind of interest rate.  I say the 10-year bond rate don't go over 4% in the next decade plus and we'll see a sub 2% print before we see a 4% print.

Agree and I  don?t think the rates will go up that high either.

We willl be in a low inflation economy for a very long time and will be rare to see a GDP growth of over 4%.  There?s no justification for rate to go up to 7% level.  5% for a 30 year fixed mortgage rate probably is the highest it will ever go.

 

[OCLuvr]

My 0.02 cents: Rates would hit 4.5% by summer 2018

 

[WTTCHMN]

In a pre-emptive move against accounting maneuvers in high-tax states such as New York and California, the bill prohibits taxpayers from prepaying next year?s state and local income or property taxes, in order to deduct them from 2018 taxes. That form of tax planning would have allowed taxpayers to benefit more from the full state and local deduction this year before it is capped next year.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/15/us/politics/republican-tax-bill.html

 

[OCLuvr]

What if you received the bill in 2017, but due date is April 2018?

 

[rickr]

I read California can try giving middle finger to FED by changing the way they handle properly tax and treating it like a charity donation. Apparently totally legal. LOL.

That way you get to keep deducting prop tax and state income tax up to 10k.
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-tax-bill-california-20171214-story.html

 

[lnc]

I read California can try giving middle finger to FED by changing the way they handle properly tax and treating it like a charity donation. Apparently totally legal. LOL.

That way you get to keep deducting prop tax and state income tax up to 10k.
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-tax-bill-california-20171214-story.html

Ha ha, this is some good stuff.

The way Sacramental distribute some of the tax money, it does look like charity donations.

 

[rickr]

Tax attorneys and accountants are going to have a field day with the new law. I'm already laying the groundwork on the new LLC that I will be starting. Anyone looking for a Consultant? Ummm... Forget it actually just need the deduction.