The Branches - New homes in Woodbridge (Alderwood) by William Lyon

irvinehomeowner said:
Back on topic:

How fast will these homes sell? Hard to believe the first 12 are already sold.
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They're going to sell at whatever crazy asking price WL offers for each phase with many disappointed potential buyers on the waiting list.  It's shark week and we're watching a feeding frenzy.  I think people that are on waiting list and unable to buy will look back years later and thank The Lord that they didn't buy during the insane period of early 2013.
 
What I don't get is why the market has gotten so crazy in the past few months? Inventories were low six months ago as well, weren't they?
 
BunkMoreland said:
What I don't get is why the market has gotten so crazy in the past few months? Inventories were low six months ago as well, weren't they?
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Yes but
1)  Spring is the traditional buying season for real estate.  There is no re-sale to speak of so new homes are the only way to go
2)  Interest rates are still ultra low but there is some sense that they will start going up
3)  The economy have improved to the point where lending is better and people don't feel like they have to save every penny.
4)  Some influence from oversea buyers but I feel like that's probably somewhat overblown.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Design wise, these look similar to IP homes (Great Room first floor), but how do the rooms feel? Do they feel big?

My problem with most of the new homes in Irvine today (and in my price range) is the master is pretty small. And some of the secondary rooms feel like they should be a master closet.

We considered going to look, but I'm protesting these exorbitant prices... $1mil for only 2400sf+, a tiny lot and no 3CWG? Even the Woodbury homes at least had a tandem 3CG.

Is a $200k premium worth the no MR and Woodbridge location over Stonegate or Portola?

Oh... and what was the HOA... was it just the $82 Woodbridge one? Or is there a second?
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There is only 1 HOA at The Branches.
 
ps9 said:
As I recall only a few choice lots in the middle that will have a decent size, anyone know which were released in the first phase?
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There were 6 lots released in phase 1a-  3 were in the middle.  The largest lot was 4200 sqft-  a bit less actually because you cannot use all of it due to the zero lot line easement.
 
qwerty said:
the shitty part for william lyon is that they are just getting a fee for building. the owner os Resmark Land & Housing, they are making all the profit.
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I think it will be interesting to see how these models compare to the models at Willow Bend when that opens.  I already like those floorplans better with the slight tweaks they made.  I don't think Resmark is involved on the Willow Bend project.
 
Willow Bend isn't sitting over a toxic plume like The Branches is.

Irvine_Plume_Map_Update_041706.jpg


Contamination at NC Marine base lasted up to 60 years
http://vitals.nbcnews.com/_news/201...ation-at-nc-marine-base-lasted-up-to-60-years
 
Finally got around to checking out the Branches (just out of curiosity - no intention of buying there).  Always having lived in homes with a separate living room and formal dining room, it's amazing how spacious the newer floorplans feel by eliminating living and formal dining rooms.  Latest price sheet as of early June.

1: $1.055M
2: $1.155M
3: $1.22M

Add a minimum of $50k for additional upgrades and $30k for hard/landscaping the tiny yard, and you're up to $1.3M for Plan 3 @ 2557 sq ft.  That's $508/sq ft!  Who's buying these things?

 
hrcp said:
Finally got around to checking out the Branches (just out of curiosity - no intention of buying there).  Always having lived in homes with a separate living room and formal dining room, it's amazing how spacious the newer floorplans feel by eliminating living and formal dining rooms.  Latest price sheet as of early June.

1: $1.055M
2: $1.155M
3: $1.22M

Add a minimum of $50k for additional upgrades and $30k for hard/landscaping the tiny yard, and you're up to $1.3M for Plan 3 @ 2557 sq ft.  That's $508/sq ft!  Who's buying these things?
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Most likely the China man
 
Did you see what phase they were in?

Even at $900k these things are a rip... at $1mil+... no wonder Lyon can go public again.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Did you see what phase they were in?

Even at $900k these things are a rip... at $1mil+... no wonder Lyon can go public again.
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Not sure what phase they're in, as I wasn't really paying attention.  Based on my quick glace at the site map, it looked like around a third? of the homes were "sold".  The sales lady did mention more than once about the "no mello roos".  I gotta give them credit for not saddling new buyers with $7k annual mello roos.  I estimate that to equate to $100k in the price of the house.  Of course, much of the infrastructure already existed (as part of the old school) at that location to begin with, so it would have been tough for them to justify and explain costly mello roos.
 
hrcp said:
I gotta give them credit for not saddling new buyers with $7k annual mello roos.  I estimate that to equate to $100k in the price of the house.
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try closer to 200K in purchasing power.
 
That would depend on the inflation/wage increase rates.  $100k to $150k would be more fair based on the present value of future mello roos payments at between 2.5% and 5% discount rate.  Diminishing purchasing power.  $1 will not equal the same in 20 years from today.

I think Mello Roos in CV and SG is around $3,600 so it would be $50k to $75k premium.
 
Goriot said:
That would depend on the inflation/wage increase rates.  $100k to $150k would be more fair based on the present value of future mello roos payments at between 2.5% and 5% discount rate.  Diminishing purchasing power.  $1 will not equal the same in 20 years from today.

I think Mello Roos in CV and SG is around $3,600 so it would be $50k to $75k premium.
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when you consider the tax benefit it gets you closer to 200K.
 
No Quarter said:
qwerty said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Great find.  The cool part is that they homes will not have any Mello Roos and the same HOA as the rest of Woodbridge (at least they better).  I wonder what the pricing will be and when these homes will be built. 
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No mello roos just means they are going to calculate the capitalized equivalent and tack it on the price of the house. Im guessing if they can get 700-800K for Montecito in Woodbury, I dont see why they would not charge 800-900K since there is no Mello-Roos.
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Exactly right!  I don't know why people refuse to believe this.  Its what any rational business would do - pass the cost onto the consumer.
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Except there is no additional cost. What they are doing is adding more profit.

It's like TIC charges you $10 because it cost them $5 and you have to pay $2 extra for MRs ($12 total). But Lyon charges you $12 even though it still costs them only $5 because they assume you would pay the $2 extra anyways.
Business is about profit maximization, not creating societal good.  If social benefits are created as a byproduct, is great.  However, that is not what any business's primary objective is.
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This is more to the point. They are charging you more because some people will pay it... but it's not really "fair" because they are not bearing any additional cost for infrastructure. They are actually benefiting because the neighborhood is built out, is centrally located, and has a built-in reputation. It's like an invisible MR that you will be taxed on every year and will never go away (although some MRs are like that now from what I hear).
 
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