Sudden sky high prices & no inventory of rental homes?

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superballamy

Member
When do you think we can expect to see a return to more normal rental home prices & supply in the Irvine & Tustin markets? We are hoping to move in December and the current lack of supply with sky high prices are not going to be something we would want to deal with.
 
Unfortunately, I don't think the lack of supply is going to change any time soon, just like the lack of inventory of homes for sale. There is no such thing as "a return to normal" as this is the new norm. Even when inflation comes down to 2%, prices are not going to drop back to pre-pandemic, unless there's a hard recession. However, worst case we'll see is a soft landing, as in mild recession at worst. Just like restaurants not dropping their prices, landlords will not drop their prices either.
 
CalBears96 said:
Unfortunately, I don't think the lack of supply is going to change any time soon, just like the lack of inventory of homes for sale. There is no such thing as "a return to normal" as this is the new norm. Even when inflation comes down to 2%, prices are not going to drop back to pre-pandemic, unless there's a hard recession. However, worst case we'll see is a soft landing, as in mild recession at worst. Just like restaurants not dropping their prices, landlords will not drop their prices either.
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But just a month or two ago, prices were actually about 10% lower than the previous YTD... and then suddenly supply evaporates and prices are almost back to where they were last year. ;(((
 
Typically summer months are extremely hot for rentals in this area. It's a good time to move if you're changing schools (which a lot of people are). I know 3 families that are moving into Irvine this month from surrounding areas specifically for schools and better quality of life. I'd probably say the late fall and holiday months are the best time to get a good deal just because no one really wants to move around then.
 
potsticker said:
Typically summer months are extremely hot for rentals in this area. It's a good time to move if you're changing schools (which a lot of people are). I know 3 families that are moving into Irvine this month from surrounding areas specifically for schools and better quality of life. I'd probably say the late fall and holiday months are the best time to get a good deal just because no one really wants to move around then.
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This is our thinking exactly! Glad to see that we weren't in our own silo with this... ;)
 
superballamy said:
When do you think we can expect to see a return to more normal rental home prices & supply in the Irvine & Tustin markets? We are hoping to move in December and the current lack of supply with sky high prices are not going to be something we would want to deal with.
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This is the new normal :cry:
 
superballamy said:
But just a month or two ago, prices were actually about 10% lower than the previous YTD... and then suddenly supply evaporates and prices are almost back to where they were last year. ;(((
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I'm not seeing the 10% dip ... in May 2022 the average rental price was 4,300 and increased to 4,500 in May 2023. In June 2022 the average rental was 4,500 and remains the same for June 2023 at 4,500

1684 homes have rented in Irvine since January 1st, an average of 8.7 per day, and today there are 382 active rentals available. The demand is hugh and the supply goes quickly ... the odds of rental prices decreasing in the near future is highly remote.
 
Raymond said:
I'm not seeing the 10% dip ... in May 2022 the average rental price was 4,300 and increased to 4,500 in May 2023. In June 2022 the average rental was 4,500 and remains the same for June 2023 at 4,500

1684 homes have rented in Irvine since January 1st, an average of 8.7 per day, and today there are 382 active rentals available. The demand is hugh and the supply goes quickly ... the odds of rental prices decreasing in the near future is highly remote.
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So the homes we see on the MLS and similar listings, that are still active, what are the odds of someone getting to lease a given <$3.7k 3bd 2ba home in Irvine? (i.e., about how many other applicants are there for these kinds of homes these days?)
 
Maybe the birth motel babies are starting to come back. Rental market going to tighten and population going to increase when that happens, imo. If they establish residency, they'll get education for free along with food stamps, low cost housing etc and affirmative action has been tossed, probably take all the spots you thought your kids had a chance to get in college.
 
superballamy said:
So the homes we see on the MLS and similar listings, that are still active, what are the odds of someone getting to lease a given <$3.7k 3bd 2ba home in Irvine? (i.e., about how many other applicants are there for these kinds of homes these days?)
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That combination rents quickly - there are 6 that match the criteria today. It increases to 24 at <4.0k
 
superballamy said:
So the homes we see on the MLS and similar listings, that are still active, what are the odds of someone getting to lease a given <$3.7k 3bd 2ba home in Irvine? (i.e., about how many other applicants are there for these kinds of homes these days?)
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With that budget you would then need to value the cost of living in Irvine versus a closer by city like Tustin/Lake Forest for example. How much value do you gain by being in Irvine versus a neighboring city? How much can you save by living in a neighboring city of Irvine?
 
sleepy5136 said:
With that budget you would then need to value the cost of living in Irvine versus a closer by city like Tustin/Lake Forest for example. How much value do you gain by being in Irvine versus a neighboring city? How much can you save by living in a neighboring city of Irvine?
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School districts if the renters care about IUSD would be a reason to pay the premium. 3/2s are likely families with a kid or 2. Taking Tustin Ranch as an example, their school district is great too, but rentals are the same as Irvine if not more.
 
akkord said:
School districts if the renters care about IUSD would be a reason to pay the premium. 3/2s are likely families with a kid or 2. Taking Tustin Ranch as an example, their school district is great too, but rentals are the same as Irvine if not more.
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If you want your kid to go to Ivy you best not go to IUSD. I’d rather save the rent premium and throw my kid to private and save $500 a month or 6k a year in rent if I cared that much about schooling.
 
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sleepy5136 said:
If you want your kid to go to Ivy you best not go to IUSD. I’d rather save the rent premium and throw my kid to private and save $500 a month or 6k a year in rent if I cared that much about schooling.
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Private school costs more than 6k a year, but yes I wouldn't pay Irvine rents if you went private
 
akkord said:
Private school costs more than 6k a year, but yes I wouldn't pay Irvine rents if you went private
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No one said private school is 6k. The point is why would you pay 6k+ more in annual rent to throw your kid to a public school if one cares about education? If one seriously cares about education, they should throw their kid to private and use the 6k+ towards the tuition cost for private.
 
sleepy5136 said:
No one said private school is 6k. The point is why would you pay 6k+ more in annual rent to throw your kid to a public school if one cares about education? If one seriously cares about education, they should throw their kid to private and use the 6k+ towards the tuition cost for private.
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Except the only private in OC worth anything is Sage Hill at $50K/yr, and it’s no Pasadena Polytechnic or Harvard Westlake. OC in fact sucks for private schools.
 
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