Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread

[quote author="skek" date=1236661906]Evidence that a stock market bottom is approaching*: Jim Cramer is on TV now giving up on ever being able to call a bottom.



*Note: 95% jest, 5% serious.</blockquote>


Jim Cramer has recently been a bit bearish. He has been bullish from 14.4K to about 7K. Once he is dead serious on being a bear, that is when I become a bull. (I'm 95% Serious)



Aside from that, I'm still loading up on BofA shares and call options anywhere from 2-9 months out. (have been for about 2-3 weeks). I normally don't "gamble", but here goes.

I miss, I lose 10% of my portfolio. I hit, (stock goes to 10 bucks or so) and I'm rich.
 
[quote author="skek" date=1236664830][quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1236663713][quote author="skek" date=1236661906]Evidence that a stock market bottom is approaching*: Jim Cramer is on TV now giving up on ever being able to call a bottom.



*Note: 95% jest, 5% serious.</blockquote>


Jim Cramer has recently been a bit bearish. He has been bullish from 14.4K to about 7K. Once he is dead serious on being a bear, that is when I become a bull. (I'm 95% Serious)



Aside from that, I'm still loading up on BofA shares and call options anywhere from 2-9 months out. (have been for about 2-3 weeks). I normally don't "gamble", but here goes.

I miss, I lose 10% of my portfolio. I hit, (stock goes to 10 bucks or so) and I'm rich.</blockquote>


I'm starting to see the resignation (this goes for both real estate and the stock market). Fewer and fewer people are talking about opportunities and timing the bottom, and more resignation and defeat. BV and graph, you guys understand the technicals better than I do so tell me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me that the volatility is largely pointed downward. When the markets rally, they do so weakly, on limited volume and are short-lived. It seems to me that one more big step downward could break the back of all but the mose resilient investors. At that point (probably 600-620 S&P), I won't be going all-in, but I'll make a strong move. Maybe 20-30% of capital, again, with a longer horizon in mind. We'll see how that works out.



Good luck BV, I hope you get rich. Do it now before Obama makes it unprofitable to be profitable.</blockquote>


There really isn't any relevant technical analysis to make other than things are going down. The rallies can't break previous days highs, and drops break previous days lows. It's a tubular pattern...going down....way down...



The last couple of trading sessions however, the market is being resistant to 6,500 and the drops haven't been as strong as before, but neither have rallies. Right now the market is just staying neutral, but a small puff of air can push it up or down. This would be news...bad or good. The market wants to go up, but there is nothing substantial out there to convince buyers to jump in. Not to meantion, people are worn out...losing hope.



Two ways you will get a rally. Washout or good news. Washout + good news will create a monster rally. It's coming, just don't know when. I'd rather be on the bullish side though than on the bearish side. This doesn't mean I don't have puts in place...I always do.



I'll try to make it out tonight, and we can talk. There are several defensive/offensive techniques you can use in any market other than just cost averaging. But biggest is to hold on to your capital. As long as you have capital, you can always time the bottom. Think of it as your own stimulus package, and how many stimulus packages you can pass depends on how much capital you have. Never go "all in" either no matter how sure you are unless you can create a delta neutral position. 30% cash at all times, 20% tops.
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1236667081][quote author="skek" date=1236664830][quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1236663713][quote author="skek" date=1236661906]Evidence that a stock market bottom is approaching*: Jim Cramer is on TV now giving up on ever being able to call a bottom.



*Note: 95% jest, 5% serious.</blockquote>


Jim Cramer has recently been a bit bearish. He has been bullish from 14.4K to about 7K. Once he is dead serious on being a bear, that is when I become a bull. (I'm 95% Serious)



Aside from that, I'm still loading up on BofA shares and call options anywhere from 2-9 months out. (have been for about 2-3 weeks). I normally don't "gamble", but here goes.

I miss, I lose 10% of my portfolio. I hit, (stock goes to 10 bucks or so) and I'm rich.</blockquote>


I'm starting to see the resignation (this goes for both real estate and the stock market). Fewer and fewer people are talking about opportunities and timing the bottom, and more resignation and defeat. BV and graph, you guys understand the technicals better than I do so tell me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me that the volatility is largely pointed downward. When the markets rally, they do so weakly, on limited volume and are short-lived. It seems to me that one more big step downward could break the back of all but the mose resilient investors. At that point (probably 600-620 S&P), I won't be going all-in, but I'll make a strong move. Maybe 20-30% of capital, again, with a longer horizon in mind. We'll see how that works out.



Good luck BV, I hope you get rich. Do it now before Obama makes it unprofitable to be profitable.</blockquote>


There really isn't any relevant technical analysis to make other than things are going down. The rallies can't break previous days highs, and drops break previous days lows. It's a tubular pattern...going down....way down...



The last couple of trading sessions however, the market is being resistant to 6,500 and the drops haven't been as strong as before, but neither have rallies. Right now the market is just staying neutral, but a small puff of air can push it up or down. This would be news...bad or good. The market wants to go up, but there is nothing substantial out there to convince buyers to jump in. Not to meantion, people are worn out...losing hope.



Two ways you will get a rally. Washout or good news. Washout + good news will create a monster rally. It's coming, just don't know when. I'd rather be on the bullish side though than on the bearish side. This doesn't mean I don't have puts in place...I always do.



I'll try to make it out tonight, and we can talk. There are several defensive/offensive techniques you can use in any market other than just cost averaging. But biggest is to hold on to your capital. As long as you have capital, you can always time the bottom. Think of it as your own stimulus package, and how many stimulus packages you can pass depends on how much capital you have. Never go "all in" either no matter how sure you are unless you can create a delta neutral position. 30% cash at all times, 20% tops.</blockquote>
I was tempted in picking up a few thousand shares of BofA around $3/share on Friday but didn't pull the trigger. I think that USB and WFC are probably better banks, but who the hell knows. What's your take on CSCO? It's getting close to 10x earnings. I'm also tempted on picking up some INTC, MSFT, and RIMM.
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1236663713][quote author="skek" date=1236661906]Evidence that a stock market bottom is approaching*: Jim Cramer is on TV now giving up on ever being able to call a bottom.



*Note: 95% jest, 5% serious.</blockquote>


Jim Cramer has recently been a bit bearish. He has been bullish from 14.4K to about 7K. Once he is dead serious on being a bear, that is when I become a bull. (I'm 95% Serious)



Aside from that, I'm still loading up on BofA shares and call options anywhere from 2-9 months out. (have been for about 2-3 weeks). I normally don't "gamble", but here goes.

I miss, I lose 10% of my portfolio. I hit, (stock goes to 10 bucks or so) and I'm rich.</blockquote>


If you are looking for lottery tickets, why not buy some call options on FAS instead? You miss you still lose 10% of your portfolio, you hit you are UBER-rich.
 
[quote author="BLUE FIRE" date=1236670203][quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1236663713][quote author="skek" date=1236661906]Evidence that a stock market bottom is approaching*: Jim Cramer is on TV now giving up on ever being able to call a bottom.



*Note: 95% jest, 5% serious.</blockquote>


Jim Cramer has recently been a bit bearish. He has been bullish from 14.4K to about 7K. Once he is dead serious on being a bear, that is when I become a bull. (I'm 95% Serious)



Aside from that, I'm still loading up on BofA shares and call options anywhere from 2-9 months out. (have been for about 2-3 weeks). I normally don't "gamble", but here goes.

I miss, I lose 10% of my portfolio. I hit, (stock goes to 10 bucks or so) and I'm rich.</blockquote>


If you are looking for lottery tickets, why not buy some call options on FAS instead? You miss you still lose 10% of your portfolio, you hit you are UBER-rich.</blockquote>
Leverage a 3x ETF, nice. Speaking of that, I might just sell 20 uncovered March FAS $2.50 puts (limited downside as this thing will not go to $0). The July 09 $2.50 puts are selling at $1.25...hmmm
 
[quote author="BLUE FIRE" date=1236670203][quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1236663713][quote author="skek" date=1236661906]Evidence that a stock market bottom is approaching*: Jim Cramer is on TV now giving up on ever being able to call a bottom.



*Note: 95% jest, 5% serious.</blockquote>


Jim Cramer has recently been a bit bearish. He has been bullish from 14.4K to about 7K. Once he is dead serious on being a bear, that is when I become a bull. (I'm 95% Serious)



Aside from that, I'm still loading up on BofA shares and call options anywhere from 2-9 months out. (have been for about 2-3 weeks). I normally don't "gamble", but here goes.

I miss, I lose 10% of my portfolio. I hit, (stock goes to 10 bucks or so) and I'm rich.</blockquote>


If you are looking for lottery tickets, why not buy some call options on FAS instead? You miss you still lose 10% of your portfolio, you hit you are UBER-rich.</blockquote>


Because I'm banking on a rally, m2m news, and the fact that BofA is undervalued....garbage...but undervalued.



I can hold on to the shares forever, FAS will devalue like an option contract over time.

Goal is to let BofA ride to about 4.50-5 a share, then that should be enough premium for me to write further out of money calls covering the cost of calls I bought giving me a free ticket.



so I lied...it really isn't a 10% loss, due to the way i have it setup. FAS is a quick in and out trade, I'm not playing BofA a quick in and out.
 
I <3 BofA! So far...



Just to what I said previously. The reason I've been buying calls (mainly around 6 strike) is because there is an incredible gap on BofA between 6 and about 12. If it has enough momentum to break 6, it has a huge possibility to ramp up to 12 a share very quickly. Today's and yesterday's rallies is great, however the lottery ticket winner will be announced after it crosses 6! Thats when the money multiplies at an incredible rate.



Aside from that, this market is showing incredible strength for today. Stochastics have risen with the rally, and now crashed back to its lows, however the market barely dipped. This shows great strength. We should be breaking intraday highs very soon. DOW at 6,754 currently.
 
[quote author="skek" date=1236736062]S&P seems locked between 711-715. Did the rally run out of steam, or is it catching it's breath before another push upward? I'm more short than long with my fun money account at the moment, so I'm a little nervous, but I have to keep reminding myself that the real money, to the extent it is invested, is all long...



I see what you mean about the stochastics dropping without the prices following. Looks like the same thing happened again around 2 pm EDT with QQQQ. Good call.</blockquote>


This is a viscious attempt by shorters trying to bring the house down and re-create panic and uncertanty. If they succeed, yeah todays rally isn't meaningful. But so far market is resistant to it and trying to fight back. Give it 10-15 more min of this and if it holds, we can see short covering soon. Its a battle out there.



Now, if some type of positive news comes out, this rally continues. We just can't have negative news or shorters will use everything they can to recreate uncertanty. It's all a game my friend.
 
Well if you are mostly long, like me. Today is a real winner. Not because of the gains, but mainly that we finished strong. Many rallies in the past couple of weeks collapsed, but today was a bit different.

The short covering at the end wasn't as big as I would have wanted, but you have to remember that there are many traders out there wanting to take their gains. Can you blame them for a day like this? So short covering is somewhat offset by people just cashing out. However, once a short trader gets spooked, they aren't likely to jump back in. The day traders (that took profits) will have to make a decision what to do tomorrow. Does the rally continue? or does it fade? Most likely they will make their decision on economic news. As long as shorts are kept at bay, it will be harder to bring this market back down. That is why its crucial that there isn't any bad news tomorrow or the day after as that will give them a weapon.



At this point, no news or good news = a rally!
 
A follow up...at the moment after market activity is bumpin! Party on!



Bac +25c after hours...6%. This is great news to me, because 5 bucks means its marginable again and mutual funds can buy again. Wouldn't be shocked if we open at 5.50-6.00 tomorrow.
 
I need a friend to talk to on this thread. I feel like I'm talking to myself...

must find a forum with more active day-traders...
 
[quote author="skek" date=1236770904]Sorry that you are talking to yourself, BV. I can't speak for others, but this is the one thread where I'm afraid of sounding stupid (insert witty retort here), so I tend to read and study this thread more than I talk.</blockquote>


Same here. I read and take mental notes. I am too much of a novice to keep up with you all, so I keep quiet. It's ok, keep talking to yourself, BV! I am learning a lot.
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1236770237]I need a friend to talk to on this thread. I feel like I'm talking to myself...

must find a forum with more active day-traders...</blockquote>
LOL...not that busy at work, eh? haha I'd be more than happy to day trade but I actually have a job again. Nice call on BAC, I knew I should have picked up a few thousand BAC and FAS shares as well as some CSCO shares. Oh well, each day brings new potential trading opportunities.
 
I haven't been posting as much, and well since panda hasn't been cheerleading gold and the crash of the dollar, I haven't had much to say. But, that is also because I didn't know there were so many readers of BV's posts. So... I will help out more often to pick his brain. Maybe one day when he has a day off sit next to him to watch what he does and post it real time on IHB. I would probably see things he doesn't think about posting. Oh... he will be fully clothed at all times.



I tried to buy some March calls on $17 strike price on SSO last night. I should have bought them before market close yesterday. Since I had a limit order of $0.25 it didn't go through and opened at $0.30. When I noticed that the rally had some legs, I placed another order for $0.50, but the market was off and running. Oh well, you make some and you lose some.



I think this rally could hold. I didn't notice the stochastic points until BV mentioned it. So with that... I think the rally continues tomorrow, and if it holds for the week, then 6500 was the bottom.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1236773408]I haven't been posting as much, and well since panda hasn't been cheerleading gold and the crash of the dollar, I haven't had much to say. But, that is also because I didn't know there were so many readers of BV's posts. So... I will help out more often to pick his brain. Maybe one day when he has a day off sit next to him to watch what he does and post it real time on IHB. I would probably see things he doesn't think about posting. Oh... he will be fully clothed at all times.



I tried to buy some March calls on $17 strike price on SSO last night. I should have bought them before market close yesterday. Since I had a limit order of $0.25 it didn't go through and opened at $0.30. When I noticed that the rally had some legs, I placed another order for $0.50, but the market was off and running. Oh well, you make some and you lose some.



I think this rally could hold. I didn't notice the stochastic points until BV mentioned it. So with that... I think the rally continues tomorrow, and if it holds for the week, then 6500 was the bottom.</blockquote>
The bottom for the time being. I think we rally with so-so 1Q earnings as most companies slashed their estimates. I think we go below 6000 in the Dow and 600 in the S&P in the fall when people realize that there is no second half recovery and earnings estimates get slashed again.
 
I didn't get a chance to read Barry's blog until just now, <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/204750/Big-Bear-Market-Rally-Coming-Says-Noted-Bear-Barry-Ritholtz">but it looks like he had similar ideas about the market as some of us today</a>.
 
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