Shady Canyon

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[quote author="awgee" date=1230187256]Did The OC Register article on Shady Canyon come out today, or will it come out tomorrow?</blockquote>


Haven't seen it yet - I'll ping the writer to see when it came out or will come out.
 
Looks like John McMonigle has just <a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/12/26/ocs-super-agent-sells-his-home/10530/">sold his Shady Canyon home</a>.
 
<blockquote>his wife now wants a bigger closet, while he wants a subterranean garage.</blockquote>


<blockquote>McMonigle, who also owns his own custom homebuilding company, said he has built 15 homes for his family in the past 13 years.</blockquote>


It sounds like he can't be that good at building custom homes if his family is so unsatisfied that they have to move every year.



My favorite part of the home: a gift-wrapping room. WTF is that?
 
[quote author="ABC123" date=1230360973]<blockquote>his wife now wants a bigger closet, while he wants a subterranean garage.</blockquote>


<blockquote>McMonigle, who also owns his own custom homebuilding company, said he has built 15 homes for his family in the past 13 years.</blockquote>


My favorite part of the home: a gift-wrapping room. WTF is that?</blockquote>


Its actually fairly common in higher end homes. 95 Canyon Creek that just sold had one. It is a room right off of the kitchen that can be used as a mud room or a crafts room but the logic behind a gift wrapping room is actually pretty well thought out since many events will most likely be held at the home throughout the year - a room is set up with a lot of paper and whatever might be needed for wrapping a lot of presents. Beats having to drag all of that out of the garage every occasion - especially if the garage is on a subterranean level. Don't know about you but having had the whole family over for Christmas - having one of those rooms would have made a huge difference.
 
[quote author="EquityMind" date=1230428844][quote author="ABC123" date=1230360973]<blockquote>his wife now wants a bigger closet, while he wants a subterranean garage.</blockquote>


<blockquote>McMonigle, who also owns his own custom homebuilding company, said he has built 15 homes for his family in the past 13 years.</blockquote>


My favorite part of the home: a gift-wrapping room. WTF is that?</blockquote>


Its actually fairly common in higher end homes. 95 Canyon Creek that just sold had one. It is a room right off of the kitchen that can be used as a mud room or a crafts room but the logic behind a gift wrapping room is actually pretty well thought out since many events will most likely be held at the home throughout the year - a room is set up with a lot of paper and whatever might be needed for wrapping a lot of presents. Beats having to drag all of that out of the garage every occasion - especially if the garage is on a subterranean level. Don't know about you but having had the whole family over for Christmas - having one of those rooms would have made a huge difference.</blockquote>


My wife wants a craft room/gift wrapping room. Actually, she calls it a craft wing.
 
Did anyone read this article about Shady Canyon in the OC Register:



<a href="http://www.ocregister.com/articles/canyon-shady-irvine-2268533-home-prices">http://www.ocregister.com/articles/canyon-shady-irvine-2268533-home-prices</a>



Lots started at 550k!
 
Wasn't a particularly well written article. Yes, there is a lot of product on the market and yes, there are probably a lot of people waiting for the home prices to drop further before they will commit.



But as one realtor pointed out to me - correctly - what is the chance that the Shady home you really want to buy is going to drop to the price where you will finally buy it? If the price does drop and it is that nice of a home, chances are someone else will buy it first. Why? Because they can. They have the money now, and they don't need to wait for the bottom of the market.



Or, prices will come down but the headlines will be so bleak you'll think that prices are still goinging lower and you won't commit and then someone else will come along and they will buy it at the lower price. Either way, you don't get the home you want and you don't get to live in Shady. Which is, in the end, a very nice place to live.



That being said, I still think Shady home prices have a lot further to fall. But if you think you are going to be able to buy the exact house you want at a much lower price, don't count on it. The odds just aren't in your favor. You may end up with a low priced Shady home, but it won't be the one you had your heart set on.
 
Interesting. Redfin shows 62 Canyon Creek was on the market 348 days.

Original List Price: $7,350,000

Previous Price: $6,850,000

Search Price (High): $5,850,000

Search Price (Low): $5,850,000



Anyone know what it sold for?



I count 36 homes in Shady for sale at www.californiamoves.com, but I'm not sure this list is complete. There are several more "pocket listings" and homes coming on the market, so the actual number for sale is probably somewhere in the 40's.
 
[quote author="Zulu" date=1230787550]Wasn't a particularly well written article. Yes, there is a lot of product on the market and yes, there are probably a lot of people waiting for the home prices to drop further before they will commit.</blockquote>
I doubt it. My guess is that there are very few people waiting for home prices to drop further before they will commit. Just about anyone who wanted to buy a home and many marginal buyers already bought. Homes in the upper end were in a bubble also. That bubble burst.





[quote author="Zulu" date=1230787550]

But as one realtor pointed out to me - correctly - what is the chance that the Shady home you really want to buy is going to drop to the price where you will finally buy it?

</blockquote>
You <strong>REALLY</strong> need to stop getting your re info from realtors. The realtor pointed out to you not only <strong>INCORRECTLY</strong>, but also stupidly and misleadingly. Of the few who are actually waiting for home prices to fall further, none are waiting for <em>"the Shady home you really want to buy"</em>. This is a ridiculous idea put forth by re agents designed to obfuscate, mislead, and frighten. No one who is waiting is waiting for any one particular home or property. And the chances that Shady Canyon home<strong>S</strong>, plural, will drop to a price that we will finally buy one are getting better every day. And, there are areas other than Shady Canyon which will be competing for our offers.





[quote author="Zulu" date=1230787550]

If the price does drop and it is that nice of a home, chances are someone else will buy it first. Why? Because they can. They have the money now, and they don't need to wait for the bottom of the market.

</blockquote>


Because they can? Huh? Then why aren't they buying right now? They can. Yet there are over forty homes for sale in Shady Canyon, some of which have been on the market for more than a year. I can buy a Ferarri, yet I am not buying one. I don't want one. I can buy a home in our neighborhood right now for cash, and I am not buying one. I have the money now. I do not <strong>NEED</strong> to wait for the bottom of the market, yet I am waiting for prices to drop further.

And again, what do I care what someone else buys first? The idea that there will not be homes for sale in Shady Canyon when we are ready to buy is about the stupidest thing I can think of.

Another one of the stupid things I hear from realtors is, "Yeah, prices are coming down, but if you find a home you love, you need to put in an offer." What a bunch of horse puckey! My wife can find a home she loves in two years just as easy as she can find one now. And she can find a home she loves <strong>MORE</strong> in a couple of years because we will have more money to spend on it and prices will be lower.



[quote author="Zulu" date=1230787550]

Or, prices will come down but the headlines will be so bleak you'll think that prices are still goinging lower and you won't commit and then someone else will come along and they will buy it at the lower price. Either way, you don't get the home you want and you don't get to live in Shady. Which is, in the end, a very nice place to live.



</blockquote>
Ummm-m, yes, we will commit. Someone else will come along? And they will buy it at the lower price? Dude! There will always be other buyers, ready to make offers. The idea that somehow that will change in the future to exclude us from buying a home is so preposterous that I am at a loss to respond.

Headlines bleak? Huh? What the heck do I care what headlines say? Hey, IHB bloggers! Is there anyone who thinks that Equitymind or I care what headlines say in reference to when we decide to buy a home?



[quote author="Zulu" date=1230787550]

That being said, I still think Shady home prices have a lot further to fall. But if you think you are going to be able to buy the exact house you want at a much lower price, don't count on it. The odds just aren't in your favor. You may end up with a low priced Shady home, but it won't be the one you had your heart set on.</blockquote>


Exact home? Huh? The only way anyone could possibly think there is some exact home which has already been built is if they have listening to some realtor fill their head with mush. The only way to get the exact home you want is to have it built to your exact specifications, and even then, given that we are creatures of insatiable wants, I doubt that anyone will get exactly what they want.

News flash! The folks who are waiting are the sort who do not get their heart set on a particular home.

Zulu - You really need to stop listening to realtor claptrap.

Zulu - Are you a realtor?
 
Awgee. Ouch, that hurt! I've been called many things, but being called a realtor....that hurts!



Not sure what point you're trying to make. You said "My guess is that there are very few people waiting for home prices to drop further before they will commit. Just about anyone who wanted to buy a home and many marginal buyers already bought." Well, that's wrong because waited for home prices to drop and they did. Our home in Shady will be completed soon. You said "I do not NEED to wait for the bottom of the market, yet I am waiting for prices to drop further." Well, we didn't NEED to wait for the bottom of the market, either. Prices dropped to a point where we thought we wouldn't get hurt too bad if we changed our minds. They've dropped a bit further since then, but so have our building costs so we're OK. It doesn't matter anyway - the market we're concerned about selling into won't exist for at least a decade.



My point may have sounded like a realtor sales pitch but it wasn't. There are people out there waiting for the prices of the good homes to drop before they commit. We know because we were among them. Unfortunately, the good homes do get snapped up first. Like 24 Cactus. Or 95 Canyon Creek. We would have bought either one of those homes if they got near our target price - unfortunately they didn't come close. So we're building a custom. But trying to time the market to hit the exact low AND get the home you want is a pointless exercise that is sure to end in disappointment. Get the home you want, and the only day you will be disappointed is the day you write the check.
 
[quote author="Zulu" date=1230994002]Awgee. Ouch, that hurt! I've been called many things, but being called a realtor....that hurts!



Not sure what point you're trying to make. You said "My guess is that there are very few people waiting for home prices to drop further before they will commit. Just about anyone who wanted to buy a home and many marginal buyers already bought." Well, that's wrong because waited for home prices to drop and they did. Our home in Shady will be completed soon. You said "I do not NEED to wait for the bottom of the market, yet I am waiting for prices to drop further." Well, we didn't NEED to wait for the bottom of the market, either. Prices dropped to a point where we thought we wouldn't get hurt too bad if we changed our minds. They've dropped a bit further since then, but so have our building costs so we're OK. It doesn't matter anyway - the market we're concerned about selling into won't exist for at least a decade.



My point may have sounded like a realtor sales pitch but it wasn't. There are people out there waiting for the prices of the good homes to drop before they commit. We know because we were among them. Unfortunately, the good homes do get snapped up first. Like 24 Cactus. Or 95 Canyon Creek. We would have bought either one of those homes if they got near our target price - unfortunately they didn't come close. So we're building a custom. But trying to time the market to hit the exact low AND get the home you want is a pointless exercise that is sure to end in disappointment. Get the home you want, and the only day you will be disappointed is the day you write the check.</blockquote>


The more details you can't be without, the more you'll probably pay. But just because -you- are waiting for one, two, or even ten addresses to buy, that doesn't mean anyone else here doesn't have many more suitable alternatives. I can't imagine having ultra-competitive bidding wars for homes for quite sometime...that is, unless there on auction with a $1 starting bid and no reserve ;)
 
28 Black Falcon just dropped from $5,150,000 to $4,750,000.



94 Canyon Creek was just listed $5,499,000 for 8,057 sq ft.



Compare these with 59 Canyon Creek, which has been sitting for months at $4,249,000. If this home were priced at $641/sf, same as Black Falcon, the asking price would be around $3,450,000.



Anyone want to guess how long these will stay on the market?
 
[quote author="Zulu" date=1231392260]Anyone want to guess how long these will stay on the market?</blockquote>


90 days, until they are taken off and relisted at even lower prices.
 
[quote author="Zulu" date=1230910693]Interesting. Redfin shows 62 Canyon Creek was on the market 348 days.

Original List Price: $7,350,000

Previous Price: $6,850,000

Search Price (High): $5,850,000

Search Price (Low): $5,850,000



Anyone know what it sold for?



I count 36 homes in Shady for sale at www.californiamoves.com, but I'm not sure this list is complete. There are several more "pocket listings" and homes coming on the market, so the actual number for sale is probably somewhere in the 40's.</blockquote>


62 Canyon Creek closed for $4.75M.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1231483000][quote author="Zulu" date=1230910693]Interesting. Redfin shows 62 Canyon Creek was on the market 348 days.

Original List Price: $7,350,000

Previous Price: $6,850,000

Search Price (High): $5,850,000

Search Price (Low): $5,850,000



Anyone know what it sold for?



I count 36 homes in Shady for sale at www.californiamoves.com, but I'm not sure this list is complete. There are several more "pocket listings" and homes coming on the market, so the actual number for sale is probably somewhere in the 40's.</blockquote>


62 Canyon Creek closed for $4.75M.</blockquote>


That is ridiculous. $2.6M less than original asking price.
 
Some stats from Steve Thomas:





Of OC homes currently for sale



Listing price Months of inventory

?$1m-$1.5m 17.42

?$1.5m-$2m 21.56

?$2m-4m 39.40

?$4m+ 113.00



So, one and one half years of inventory for the $1mil to $1.5mil crowd

and over nine years of inventory for the $4mil + crowd.
 
[quote author="Zulu" date=1231392260]28 Black Falcon just dropped from $5,150,000 to $4,750,000.



94 Canyon Creek was just listed $5,499,000 for 8,057 sq ft.



Compare these with 59 Canyon Creek, which has been sitting for months at $4,249,000. If this home were priced at $641/sf, same as Black Falcon, the asking price would be around $3,450,000.



Anyone want to guess how long these will stay on the market?</blockquote>


Inventory for Orange County homes with a listing price of over $4 mil is at 113 months right now, or a little less than 9 years, according to Steve Thomas of Altera Realty.
 
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