Shady Canyon

[quote author="awgee" date=1231823322][quote author="Zulu" date=1231392260]28 Black Falcon just dropped from $5,150,000 to $4,750,000.



94 Canyon Creek was just listed $5,499,000 for 8,057 sq ft.



Compare these with 59 Canyon Creek, which has been sitting for months at $4,249,000. If this home were priced at $641/sf, same as Black Falcon, the asking price would be around $3,450,000.



Anyone want to guess how long these will stay on the market?</blockquote>


Inventory for Orange County homes with a listing price of over $4 mil is at 113 months right now, or a little less than 9 years, according to Steve Thomas of Altera Realty.</blockquote>


He's not still using "demand" incorrectly, is he? I hope not.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1231823322][quote author="Zulu" date=1231392260]28 Black Falcon just dropped from $5,150,000 to $4,750,000.



94 Canyon Creek was just listed $5,499,000 for 8,057 sq ft.



Compare these with 59 Canyon Creek, which has been sitting for months at $4,249,000. If this home were priced at $641/sf, same as Black Falcon, the asking price would be around $3,450,000.



Anyone want to guess how long these will stay on the market?</blockquote>


Inventory for Orange County homes with a listing price of over $4 mil is at 113 months right now, or a little less than 9 years, according to Steve Thomas of Altera Realty.</blockquote>




It'll be interesting to see how the falling high market affects the rest of us. If those 5 million+ houses in shady all got relisted around 2-3 million, you wonder if the Turtle Ridge/Northpark ones would drop half a mil too etc.



So, what'll it be? Will the crashing condo market eventually pull down the mid end, or will it be shady canyon that finally creams all those million dollar irvine houses?
 
I looked up Shady Canyon golf club.



$300,000 initiation fees...plus almost $1,500 per month and $400 per quarter for food & drink. I think that's for the whole family (at least).



This is probably a little more than $30,000 per year on golf. If you golf 5 times a week it's "only" $120 a game. If you are only golfing on weekends, that's a nice $300 a game.



Anyhow, I'd be really happy if someone wants to invite me next summer. I'll make sure to shoot a few shots higher than you to make you feel good!
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1231512917][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1231483000][quote author="Zulu" date=1230910693]Interesting. Redfin shows 62 Canyon Creek was on the market 348 days.

Original List Price: $7,350,000

Previous Price: $6,850,000

Search Price (High): $5,850,000

Search Price (Low): $5,850,000



Anyone know what it sold for?



I count 36 homes in Shady for sale at www.californiamoves.com, but I'm not sure this list is complete. There are several more "pocket listings" and homes coming on the market, so the actual number for sale is probably somewhere in the 40's.</blockquote>


62 Canyon Creek closed for $4.75M.</blockquote>


That is ridiculous. $2.6M less than original asking price.</blockquote>


62 Canyon Creek was built for the owners son who never moved in and moved into a tract home instead so the owners put it on the market - or at least that's what the realtor told me ;) It always looked WAAYY overpriced with no subterranean like a lot of the neighboring homes and backed up to a hill - don't get me wrong, nice property but at $7.3MM when I first walked it was way overpriced (over 1K a sq. ft.) so I didn't pay too much attention to the home or give it much consideration or even visit it a second time.
 
I wondered why Skek wasn't posting much this afternoon. Now I know why... <a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/25-Blue-Heron-Irvine-CA-92603/59725902_zpid/">25 Blue Heron was picked up at the foreclosure auction for a penny over $3.237mil</a>. That is some serious cash to pick that up. I think the wealth spreading will be an IHB party with catered food from Black Sheep and endless bottles of Chiroc all over the house. 44% off the 2004 price in Shady, now that is a motherfreakin discount. w00t party a skekker's house! Is that a hot tub I see?



That can't be good for Shady comps.
 
44% off 2004 price... Now why is it surprising? This is where bids are on all real estate.



$460 per sqft... Why is it that there is a theory that larger properties should have higher $$$/sqf? Is it because it is hard to create larger plots by combining lots (doubt it)? Is it because improvements and structure as % of sq ft are greater (doubt it). How is it different from going to Costco and buying toilet paper in large packs?



I rode my bike around Shady a week ago... This is not a great place to live. No sense of the neighborhood whatsoever, yet you have houses and walls everywhere around you. Empty plots that will never be built on (at current valuations). Hideous architecture in some homes, a-la Brooklin Italian dream. Dry hills around you (can't water all of it). Water tower is not much higher than the houses, wonder what water pressure is like.



Don't have a good feeling for Shady valuations at all. For the same price, I'll take Balboa any day.
 
Isn't that the property that was rumored to have foundation issues? If it's true how much money would you have to spend to fix it?
 
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<legend> Attached files </legend> <a href="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/237_3Iyt0TOxjHCRzvUt69LV.xls" target="_blank" class="gc-files">updatedshady.xls</a> <span class="gc-filesize">(33 B)</span> </fieldset>
 
I also heard from an agent that 25 Blue Heron had foundation issues. If compaction grouting is required to lift the foundation, the cost could easily run into the hundreds of thousands of dollars.



With some lot prices around $1.5m asking, including plans, it would seem building from scratch would provide a better value than taking on a problem.
 
72 Golden Eagle just took a $3.0m hair cut, not looking rosy for this owner who's also trying to sell his emerald bay home for $37.0m.



Now listed at $9,995,000



The Land is assessed at $2.8m, say it was purchased for $2.5m (40,000sq.ft lot). Approx. 11,000sq.ft. home. Using $600p/sq.ft. to build, lot value + cost of home to build = $9,100,000



eek
 
[quote author="sell4u" date=1233369668]72 Golden Eagle just took a $3.0m hair cut, not looking rosy for this owner who's also trying to sell his emerald bay home for $37.0m.



Now listed at $9,995,000



The Land is assessed at $2.8m, say it was purchased for $2.5m (40,000sq.ft lot). Approx. 11,000sq.ft. home. Using $600p/sq.ft. to build, lot value + cost of home to build = $9,100,000



eek</blockquote>


Whaddya figure the vig has been on that nut? Maybe $60,000 per month?
 
[quote author="sell4u" date=1233369668]72 Golden Eagle just took a $3.0m hair cut, not looking rosy for this owner who's also trying to sell his emerald bay home for $37.0m.



Now listed at $9,995,000



The Land is assessed at $2.8m, say it was purchased for $2.5m (40,000sq.ft lot). Approx. 11,000sq.ft. home. Using $600p/sq.ft. to build, lot value + cost of home to build = $9,100,000



eek</blockquote>


That same owner sold their company for around $700MM a few years back so I doubt they are hurting too bad. ;)
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1233159133]I wondered why Skek wasn't posting much this afternoon. Now I know why... <a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/25-Blue-Heron-Irvine-CA-92603/59725902_zpid/">25 Blue Heron was picked up at the foreclosure auction for a penny over $3.237mil</a>. That is some serious cash to pick that up. I think the wealth spreading will be an IHB party with catered food from Black Sheep and endless bottles of Chiroc all over the house. 44% off the 2004 price in Shady, now that is a motherfreakin discount. w00t party a skekker's house! Is that a hot tub I see?



That can't be good for Shady comps.</blockquote>


I cant imagine any realtor using a foreclosed comp in their factoring for listings...everytime I mention the <a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6-Prairie-Grass-Irvine-CA-92603/61642844_zpid/">last foreclosure sale in the Sycamores</a> I just get a blank stare but then a subtle acknowledgment as in "oh yeah but we don't count that" plus the foreclosure sales dont make it into mls typically so a good realtor would actually have to research the area well to know about all of the real activity. Most still don't get it. <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/45-Copper-Crk-92603/home/5856001">45 Copper Creek was just listed today at $961 a sq. ft!</a>
 
Skek,

Well, I will tell you that my building costs including landscaping are less than $290/sf with better quality and amenities than most of the specs I've seen. My house won't be one that you can tell a story about i.e. "...floor tiles salvaged from the ruins of Pompei" and "...doors from the Vatican and blessed by the Pope" but it will be excellent quality, practical and worth what we paid for it in this market or any other. Building costs have dropped greatly since most of the spec homes were started, but land is still the #1 cost. Even so, I could pay $2.5m for a lot and put a better home on it for less than most of the spec homes in Shady. The lots, as overpriced as they are, are still the best value in Shady if you know what you're doing.
 
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