Shady Canyon

[quote author="sell4u" date=1236821234]dangerously close. on another note, the assessed value per the county --> $6,072,988</blockquote>


Yeah, annual property tax is a mere $70K

Bring all offers!
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1236814653][quote author="awgee" date=1236803416][quote author="awgee" date=1234411981][quote author="Zulu" date=1234402737]72 Golden Eagle is an amazing home. Beautiful views and a lot of light. A bit over the top for my taste, but drop the price about $7 million and I'm definitely a buyer! ;-)



Rumor is that 59 Canyon Creek is now in escrow. The inventory of relatively-fairly-priced new homes (qualifier there...) in Shady seem to be selling at a rate of around 2 per month (that's a guess).</blockquote>


Per Redfin, the rate of new listings in the last 30 days is 11.</blockquote>


Per Redfin, there are 8 new listings in Shady Canyon in the last 30 days.



How many have entered escrow in the last 30 days? Ipo? Sell4u?</blockquote>


The only one I see over the past 30 is 49 Vernal Spring. I have noticed that many Shady properties don't do the normal indication of escrow by going to accepting backup offers. They go straight to pending sale or just plain ole sold. I suspect probaby 2-3 have entered the sale process over the past month.</blockquote>


It would appear that Zulu's estimate is accurate, and there are 4 to 5 times as many homes being listed each month than are being sold.
 
[quote author="Zulu" date=1234490053]Skek - how did you come up with 50 properties in Shady? I count only 36 on Redfin and 42 on camoves.com, minus the recent sells. Oops - just found the answer to my own question - you're counting the lots for sale as well. Even so, that doesn't seem like such a huge inventory considering there are 400 properties in Shady - 13% of the homes are on the market, but 87% aren't.



Thanks.</blockquote>


I was trying to put this in context so I get better get my little mind around it, so I figured what 13% of the total homes in Coto is. It is a bit more than 520, so for Coto to have the same percentage of properties for sale that Shady Canyon has,

Coto would have to have 520 properties for sale. Right now there are 167 properties, including lots, for sale in Coto, or 4%. But 96% aren't.
 
Well, here's the big difference between Shady Canyon and Coto as I see it:



First, there ARE still people buying these expensive homes ins Shady. Not many, but a couple per month. For homes in the $4 - $7 million dollar range, that's not bad. The problem isn't that there aren't enough buyers, it's that there are too many sellers. Everyone jumped on the spec bandwagon in 2004-05 hoping to make a couple of million bucks on their spec home. The ones early to the party made a killing, but by the time rest of the spec builders figured out there was a huge profit to be made, bought their land and got through the long approval process AND got their homes built, the party was pretty much over. With so many homes now on the market, the profits are gone and now it's damage control and the game is "try to get out with some of your equity". Now you've got the marginal owners trying to sell who really couldn't afford their homes in the first place, competing with the new market.



Coto, on the other hand, has NO new spec homes. Actually, there are 2 and one is on a lousy hillside lot in an area of tract homes and is listed for over $9 million, the other is right on the corner of Coto Drive. ZOOOMMMM!!! What did you say? I said the other is RIGHT ON THE CORNER OF A 60MPH 2-LANE ROAD WITH TONS OF TRAFFIC!! HELLO! CAN YOU HEAR ME?? You get the idea. Neither of these homes represent Coto.



The most expensive homes are in the Los Ranchos Estates. They are old and overpriced, which is why they aren't selling. That is why there was only 1 sale in 2008 for over $4 million. In fact, the home that sold was the expensive one on top the hill (can't remember the address) that was listed for over $20 million. It was lived in, but barely. If there were new homes in the $5-7 million range they would probably sell because buyers only almost no other choices for homes with land.



There is one lot on Pradera Road for sale which has the grading done and has all approvals in place to build a Tuscan style home. I hear the owner is looking for a partner to build out the lot, but other than that there is nothing on the drawing board for Coto for the foreseeable future.
 
[quote author="Zulu" date=1236837438]Well, here's the big difference between Shady Canyon and Coto as I see it:



First, there ARE still people buying these expensive homes ins Shady. Not many, but a couple per month. For homes in the $4 - $7 million dollar range, that's not bad. The problem isn't that there aren't enough buyers, it's that there are too many sellers. Everyone jumped on the spec bandwagon in 2004-05 hoping to make a couple of million bucks on their spec home. The ones early to the party made a killing, but by the time rest of the spec builders figured out there was a huge profit to be made, bought their land and got through the long approval process AND got their homes built, the party was pretty much over. With so many homes now on the market, the profits are gone and now it's damage control and the game is "try to get out with some of your equity". Now you've got the marginal owners trying to sell who really couldn't afford their homes in the first place, competing with the new market.

</blockquote>


No argument from me. Looks like you pretty much got it nailed.







Except for the idea that too many sellers is a problem. Looks more like opportunity than problematic to me; at least for those who are willing to wait. Your thoughtful and well articulated observations show why prices in Shady Canyon have just begun to fall and will become the opportunity of a lifetime for any who may care to purchase there, and want to buy at less than fire sale prices. 8.3% of C&D loans are currently in default. I wish I knew what the rate for Shady spec builders was right now. It certainly isn't going to get better any time soon. My visualization is of everyone on the Titanic trying to get out of one porthole at once.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1236839442]prices in Shady Canyon have just begun to fall and will become the opportunity of a lifetime for any who may care to purchase there, and want to buy at less than fire sale prices. </blockquote>


it will be opportunity of a lifetime because this is how long they will have to hold it to make money.



Ok ok, I don't like the neighborhood, would be closer to the water for the same $$$$$, but here is what I would do if I were a Shady overlord:

- improve the empty lots by planting trees over them

- pay actors to move into the empty homes

- pay Quail Hill children to come up and play on the streets of Shady



then you may get someone to buy into this "neighborhood". Just parking the same old rental bentleys outside the homes you want to sell is not going to work...
 
[quote author="skek" date=1236917737][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1236909910]Assuming it?s a savvy buyer, I?ll go with $5.99M</blockquote>


I think ten is probably pretty close. I'll go a smidge lower and say $5.75M.



I love the lucky number pricing on the listing price...</blockquote>


You're both wrong! It will sell for $5,888,888.88. It's all about the 8's. That's how the FCBers roll... yo!
 
How much do you guys think these houses are worth? Not how much do you think some person with too much disposable income is willing to pay, but what is the value of one of those less than one acre looking into your neighbor's yard homes actually "worth"?



In a way I find it rather ironic that this stretch or rocky, hilly uncultivated land is demanding a premium. I wonder what the original Indians or James Irvine or whoever actually owned the land a century ago would think.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1236923938][quote author="skek" date=1236917737][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1236909910]Assuming it?s a savvy buyer, I?ll go with $5.99M</blockquote>


I think ten is probably pretty close. I'll go a smidge lower and say $5.75M.



I love the lucky number pricing on the listing price...</blockquote>


You're both wrong! It will sell for $5,888,888.88. It's all about the 8's. That's how the FCBers roll... yo!</blockquote>


Maybe in other parts of Irvine, not Shady.

I?m going to stick with Skek on this one.

10:1 guy with last name like DuPont is the buyer
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1236925325][quote author="graphrix" date=1236923938]You're both wrong! It will sell for $5,888,888.88. It's all about the 8's. That's how the FCBers roll... yo!</blockquote>


Maybe in other parts of Irvine, not Shady.

I?m going to stick with Skek on this one.

10:1 guy with last name like DuPont is the buyer</blockquote>


Dude... even the French are up on the Feng Shui. I stand by my price point. Plus, I heard a plane of Chinese flew into OC a few weeks ago to buy up homes. Come on... don't read the news? Planes and planes of Chinese are coming here to buy homes, specifically Irvine, more specifically Shady. [/snark]
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1236925672][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1236925325][quote author="graphrix" date=1236923938]You're both wrong! It will sell for $5,888,888.88. It's all about the 8's. That's how the FCBers roll... yo!</blockquote>


Maybe in other parts of Irvine, not Shady.

I?m going to stick with Skek on this one.

10:1 guy with last name like DuPont is the buyer</blockquote>


Dude... even the French are up on the Feng Shui. I stand by my price point. Plus, I heard a plane of Chinese flew into OC a few weeks ago to buy up homes. Come on... don't read the news? Planes and planes of Chinese are coming here to buy homes, specifically Irvine, more specifically Shady. [/snark]</blockquote>


Your price point maybe solid, but it's your buyer that I take issue with.

Feng Shui aside, my buyer is the Shady Canyon Country Club type (with lots of disposable income).



This guy...



<img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2336/1858427540_0baeef91d4.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="ABC123" date=1236924128]How much do you guys think these houses are worth? Not how much do you think some person with too much disposable income is willing to pay, but what is the value of one of those less than one acre looking into your neighbor's yard homes actually "worth"?



In a way I find it rather ironic that this stretch or rocky, hilly uncultivated land is demanding a premium. I wonder what the original Indians or James Irvine or whoever actually owned the land a century ago would think.</blockquote>


It is valued or worth whatever someone is willing to pay and the owner is willing to sell for. That's all. There is no other value or worth. I think folks get hung up on an idea that there is some set worth or value to a property. It does not matter what the appraiser or bank or anybody else says a property is worth. The buyer and seller determine worth.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1236927929][quote author="ABC123" date=1236924128]How much do you guys think these houses are worth? Not how much do you think some person with too much disposable income is willing to pay, but what is the value of one of those less than one acre looking into your neighbor's yard homes actually "worth"?



In a way I find it rather ironic that this stretch or rocky, hilly uncultivated land is demanding a premium. I wonder what the original Indians or James Irvine or whoever actually owned the land a century ago would think.</blockquote>


It is valued or worth whatever someone is willing to pay and the owner is willing to sell for. That's all. There is no other value or worth. I think folks get hung up on an idea that there is some set worth or value to a property. It does not matter what the appraiser or bank or anybody else says a property is worth. The buyer and seller determine worth.</blockquote>


I'm bringing you with me, armed with that quote, when Uncle Sam and I disagree on this issue in the future...

:)
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1236926196]

Your price point maybe solid, but it's your buyer that I take issue with.

Feng Shui aside, my buyer is the Shady Canyon Country Club type (with lots of disposable income).



This guy...



<img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2336/1858427540_0baeef91d4.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>


That girl is pretty but she has got fat arms.
 
[quote author="ABC123" date=1236929003]



That girl is pretty but she has got fat arms.</blockquote>


<img src="http://images.spaces.covers.com/Upload/UserImages/fatbastard.jpg" alt="" />
 
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