SALT Deduction

fortune11 said:
I will give you the exact benefit of tax cuts to corporate earnings and where the money was spent (relative to years prior)

Chest thumping conservatives want to take a guess first  ?

Remember prior beatdowns on the trade deals , bond bubbles, etc so take your time and google thoroughly before you respond this time  :)

That is , if facts matter to you  ...
Click to expand...

Well...everything will be solved by that 6% GDP growth...maybe GOP should take a page out of China's playbook and just make up their own GDP numbers.
 
Why is everything always in such extreme definitives?  Always 100 miles an hour or a dead stop? What about just decent growth...we will be fine.
 
morekaos said:
Why is everything always in such extreme definitives?  Always 100 miles an hour or a dead stop? What about just decent growth...we will be fine.
Click to expand...

Again...facts, evidence, and logic.  Talking points are pointless.
 
My point , as with many posts where I have repeated myself 10 times to drill this point home ?

Is that our economic supertanker moves via forces that are much much bigger than a political party or magical gimmicks like one time tax cuts

Demographics
Productivity ? v v IMP l
Labor force participation

Ever wonder why GDP was booming when ?boomers? were entering the workforce ? Because at the same time women were also entering the workforce in large numbers boosting aggregate demand . Didn?t matter we had high taxes at the time .

Do tax cuts spur the creation of new companies like apple or google ? Or do they just stuff more money in the pockets of old fossils who fund GOP ...  you know the answer .

That doesn?t mean you cannot make money during these mini cycles of boom and bust . Key is not to get too excited by recent events or political affiliations
 
fortune11 said:
My point , as with many posts where I have repeated myself 10 times to drill this point home ?

Is that our economic supertanker moves via forces that are much much bigger than a political party or magical gimmicks like one time tax cuts

Demographics
Productivity ? v v IMP l
Labor force participation

Ever wonder why GDP was booming when ?boomers? were entering the workforce ? Because at the same time women were also entering the workforce in large numbers boosting aggregate demand . Didn?t matter we had high taxes at the time .

Do tax cuts spur the creation of new companies like apple or google ? Or do they just stuff more money in the pockets of old fossils who fund GOP ...  you know the answer .

That doesn?t mean you cannot make money during these mini cycles of boom and bust . Key is not to get too excited by recent events or political affiliations
Click to expand...

TBF...GDP is seriously flawed measuring the 21st century economy, when so much of productivity is not centralized and automation/AI is growing.  It's really misleading when it is held up as this ultimate report of the economy.

A more holistic view of the economy is needed:  (more Andrew Yang plug)
https://www.yang2020.com/policies/measuring-the-economy/

 
Mety said:
eyephone said:
eyephone said:
Mety said:
eyephone said:
Mety said:
So the bottom line, not much changed?
Does this tell us in any way that the housing market will be back to bull run again? Or are the buyers still fed up with ridiculous prices?
Click to expand...

It did change it effected real estate. Go to the housing analysis thread.
Click to expand...

It did affect the market for sure. I agree with you like you suggested not to buy last year as I also think last year was the worst time to buy IMO. But people kinda stopped buying because of the seasonality, ridiculous listing prices and also the fear of this new tax plan would not benefit like it used to. It seems though because of other factors, people are not much affected by it in the overall tax calculations or even got more benefits for some reason as some TI members are saying. The housing tax alone might have been a little less attractive, but because of new bracket systems, maybe it turned out not as bad? I could be wrong. I?m just guessing from how people including myself thought it was going to be so bad, but surprised to see some benefits at the end. Well, I was only interested how it would affect the housing market so I guess we will see how it plays.
Click to expand...

Read the article from the NY Fed. Don?t be foolish and rely on TI responses. (You should know better.)
Click to expand...

Mety: take a look at these poll numbers

Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)

The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.

White House officials? response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469
Click to expand...

Thanks for the articles. While it may benefit me for now I guess it could possibly play the role in upcoming recession or any economic damage on the way. But like I said before, I?m not really too familiar with economy or political stuff. You guys seem to be on top of it always, but two opinions (Trump fans vs. Anti-Trump) can?t seem to agree forever lol.
Click to expand...

You say you are not familiar with the economy and politics. But I have to say in a way you are. You recognized the slowing in housing.

I like to leave you with you with a quote.
?If you sleep, you will miss the opportunity to be successful.?
E. Thomas

You have to be current with today news. (For example price of oil, tarriffs, Interest rates, etc..)

 
eyephone said:
Mety said:
eyephone said:
eyephone said:
Mety said:
eyephone said:
Mety said:
So the bottom line, not much changed?
Does this tell us in any way that the housing market will be back to bull run again? Or are the buyers still fed up with ridiculous prices?
Click to expand...

It did change it effected real estate. Go to the housing analysis thread.
Click to expand...

It did affect the market for sure. I agree with you like you suggested not to buy last year as I also think last year was the worst time to buy IMO. But people kinda stopped buying because of the seasonality, ridiculous listing prices and also the fear of this new tax plan would not benefit like it used to. It seems though because of other factors, people are not much affected by it in the overall tax calculations or even got more benefits for some reason as some TI members are saying. The housing tax alone might have been a little less attractive, but because of new bracket systems, maybe it turned out not as bad? I could be wrong. I?m just guessing from how people including myself thought it was going to be so bad, but surprised to see some benefits at the end. Well, I was only interested how it would affect the housing market so I guess we will see how it plays.
Click to expand...

Read the article from the NY Fed. Don?t be foolish and rely on TI responses. (You should know better.)
Click to expand...

Mety: take a look at these poll numbers

Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)

The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.

White House officials? response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469
Click to expand...

Thanks for the articles. While it may benefit me for now I guess it could possibly play the role in upcoming recession or any economic damage on the way. But like I said before, I?m not really too familiar with economy or political stuff. You guys seem to be on top of it always, but two opinions (Trump fans vs. Anti-Trump) can?t seem to agree forever lol.
Click to expand...

You say you are not familiar with the economy and politics. But I have to say in a way you are. You recognized the slowing in housing.

I like to leave you with you with a quote.
?If you sleep, you will miss the opportunity to be successful.?
E. Thomas

You have to be current with today news. (For example price of oil, tarriffs, Interest rates, etc..)
Click to expand...

Haha. I can't keep up with everything. I guess you guys (especially eyephone, fortune11, Irvinecommuter) have so much more capacity to study and observe than what I can do.

Besides my career field (which is not economy or politics) I mostly have interests on God and housing. Although I would like it to be just God (no, I'm not a pastor either), housing is needed for our family and to serve others also so I tend to study a lot on areas and markets, etc, to provide what's best for our family and friends. Thanks to people like you and YF for you guys provide much good information and things people usually miss on housing markets.
 
morekaos said:
Even Bernie Sanders admits it worked.

Hell Freezes Over :Bernie Sanders Admits That GOP?s Tax Cuts are a Boon for America?s Middle Class
Click to expand...

Yeah..you confuse Bernie Sanders with a good policy person.  To me, he is the Democratic equivalent to Donald Trump...all hat no cattle.
 
morekaos said:
Even Bernie Sanders admits it worked.

Hell Freezes Over :Bernie Sanders Admits That GOP?s Tax Cuts are a Boon for America?s Middle Class

?Yeah, it is a very good thing, and that?s why we should have made the tax breaks for the middle class permanent. Should we focus on the needs of the middle class? We should have.
Click to expand...

Using Bernie Sanders to boost your claim does not do much.

Bernie's heart is in the right place but his policy reflects how clueless he is to solving America's problems.

What good is a $15 minimum wage when millions of jobs are getting wiped out? Why subsidize free college ? only 32% of American even go to college (41% don't even graduate). And he wants to jump straight into Medicare for all wiping out private insurance in 4 years. Massive disruptions for care providers.

Trump's tax cut is great?

Corporate tax revenue drop of 31% in 2018. Amazon's effective tax rate is -1% despite 11 billions profit. Yet you want people to celebrate the measly amount they saved on their personal income tax?

 
Not my point, I think he?s an idiot but he is also reflexively anti Trump. His automatic set position is opposite whatever Trump does. In this instance he has no choice but to agree that the tax cuts were broad and effective. It?s too obvious for even Crazy Bernie to deny.
 
morekaos said:
Not my point, I think he?s an idiot but he is also reflexively anti Trump. His automatic set position is opposite whatever Trump does. In this instance he has no choice but to agree that the tax cuts were broad and effective. It?s too obvious for even Crazy Bernie to deny.
Click to expand...

This right here , shows your utter lack of political knowledge beyond ?copy and paste ?

Bernie has been equated w Trump on the left . His most rabid supporters are as close to trumps supporters in their behavior as you can get . And trump actually used many of Bernie?s own talking points on the stump (that he didn?t implement them is a different story) ..
 
Maybe I'm too cynical and think the average taxpayer is actually stupid.  I seriously doubt many, even more than fifty percent think their tax went up or down based on whether they had bigger or smaller refund or the last check they had to send was bigger or smaller.

I'm that jaded, that the majority do understand, and can't do the math to determine if their take home pay was bigger, smaller and if told they're total tax paid was bigger or smaller and it doesn't match the I sent a bigger or smaller check on tax day, they're confused and go with the size of the check they wrote.
 
nosuchreality said:
Maybe I'm too cynical and think the average taxpayer is actually stupid.  I seriously doubt many, even more than fifty percent think their tax went up or down based on whether they had bigger or smaller refund or the last check they had to send was bigger or smaller.

I'm that jaded, that the majority do understand, and can't do the math to determine if their take home pay was bigger, smaller and if told they're total tax paid was bigger or smaller and it doesn't match the I sent a bigger or smaller check on tax day, they're confused and go with the size of the check they wrote.
Click to expand...

Nope...you are right on.  The vast majority of American taxpayers think that a refund is a good thing, when in reality it is just an interest-free loan to the government.  But that also goes to the perception is reality issue.  People don't care that they got $30 or $50 more in their paycheck every month...most people have direct deposit now and probably don't even the exact amount they are supposed to get paid.  That's not even talking about people who work hourly and whose pay fluctuates.  For those people, getting a refund check is like hitting a mini lottery.  There is a joy that comes with it.

Obama did this with the payroll tax in 2009 and got no political benefit from it.  People just didn't see it.  Trump made the same mistake this time around but because they wanted to use the tax cut to run on in the midterm.  Now, it's just a giant political (arguably economic) failure.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
So if people aren't affected by a marginal tax change (up or down), why do some say this affected housing?
Click to expand...

Tribal noise. People hear losing salt (SALT) deductions, don't really know what it means. Katie Porter is running a facebook post with a guy saying Trump's tax cut elimiated all the deductions.  Talking heads babble distort and contradict each other or if you're not on a finance channel and a regu!ar news channel or show like Maher or full frontal, its a panel all in agreement marching a line of tropes as unquestionable truth.

CNN is a good example today. 
Mueller report unable to conclude 'no criminal conduct occurred' on obstruction
Click to expand...
. Wow, I think Trump is pretty schmucky most of the time, but thats ridiculous.  Guilty until proven innocent much? 
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/18/politics/mueller-report-release/index.html

 
nosuchreality said:
irvinehomeowner said:
So if people aren't affected by a marginal tax change (up or down), why do some say this affected housing?
Click to expand...

Tribal noise. People hear losing salt (SALT) deductions, don't really know what it means. Katie Porter is running a facebook post with a guy saying Trump's tax cut elimiated all the deductions.  Talking heads babble distort and contradict each other or if you're not on a finance channel and a regu!ar news channel or show like Maher or full frontal, its a panel all in agreement marching a line of tropes as unquestionable truth.

CNN is a good example today. 
Mueller report unable to conclude 'no criminal conduct occurred' on obstruction
Click to expand...
. Wow, I think Trump is pretty schmucky most of the time, but thats ridiculous.  Guilty until proven innocent much? 
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/18/politics/mueller-report-release/index.html
Click to expand...

I rather this discussion stay in the other thread but Mueller literally said that there was not enough evidence for criminal charge...literally innocent until proven.
 
Irvinecommuter said:
morekaos said:
More "if true..thens"....those lines have not worked out as of late.
Click to expand...

2.9% GDP in 2018 was a real thing. 

2014:  2.5
2015:  2.9
2016:  1.6
2017:  2.3
2018:  2.9

Are you predicting GDP growth in 2019 to be better than 2.9%?
Click to expand...

Surprise!! Didn't see that comin. Well, not really.

US economy grows by 3.2% in the first quarter, topping expectations

First-quarter gross domestic product expanded by 3.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its initial read of the economy for that period.
Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the U.S. economy increased by 2.5% in the first quarter.
Gross domestic product for the first quarter was the best start to a year since 2015.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/26/gdp-q1-2019-first-read.html
https://youtu.be/yMwmqp3GLMc

https://youtu.be/yMwmqp3GLMc
 
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