Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2023 to 2024

Where will Irvine housing prices in June 2024 be compared to June 2023?

  • Total voters
    37
  • Poll closed .
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irvinehomeowner

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
So the first poll we were close... most responded flat to down and if I'm looking at the trending charts properly, it looks more like flat to up.

Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022

Alright, put your crystal balls to the test. 1. Finite time frame, so 1 year from now. 2. Irvine housing only (this is TI after all) 3. You can pick up to 3 4. Can vote/edit for 2 months then it locks. I think I listed enough options but let me know if I missed something. I don't think over...
www.talkirvine.com

So what do we think for next year?

Same rules as last year's:

1. Finite time frame, so 1 year from now.
2. Irvine housing only (this is TI after all)
3. You can pick up to 3
4. Can vote/edit for 2 months then it locks.

I consolidated the 5/10% into one category since they are pretty close.
 
This is interesting to me.

It seems like prices HAVE to go down... but the last year has shown how stubborn Irvine is even with high interest rates (which had the opposite affect because it stagnated inventory). And there are still new homes going up in Irvine. Portola Springs, Orchard Hills and Great Park still have a land available.

I think new may still go up but resale my go down a bit.. so flat overall?
 
Lanelgn said:
compare to San Jose... Irvine is not that expensive...
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Indeed - an attached SFR (duet style) up the street from me just closed at $962/sf. We district into the most academically competitive and sought after HS/MS/ESs in SJC - I call our zip code the destination for Asian buyers that can’t afford Saratoga or Cupertino.
 
JamesMarco said:
but people here don't get paid as muc
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There is a finite amount of land and a finite amount of homes for sale. It all comes down to supply and demand.

You don't need to have the "average", "median", or whatever metric you want to apply to have houses go up (or down) in any given area. You only need to have those who can afford it, to buy. Whether they make money long term or not or whether they would have made (or lost) more (or less) buying elsewhere or waiting won't make a difference on short term moves. AND........... Irvine is not homogenous. There are older, newer, condos, townhomes, SFR, executive homes and some neighborhoods or houses will be more in demand than others. In the long term........... houses go up, unless something catastrophic happens like a landslide.
 
So this poll is different from last year's... which was mostly flat to down. This one is mostly flat to up which is what last year actually was (recency bias?).

From what has been posted here, TIC has sold of the rest of their PS builds to builders... what about the rest of Orchard Hills?

And is that a new home community I see breaking ground just south of the Y? I think it was called Irvine Heritage or something as is probably GP related.
 
From Redfin, Irvine housing looking slightly up... there was a big run recently but prices are coming down... is this FINALLY the end some people have been predicting for years? :)

1710347875712.png
 
Since the April 2022 peak, Irvine is "up" a mere 2.8%. CPI inflation is up 6.7% over the same time.

Irvine is not even close to keeping up with inflation and all-cash buyers are losing money as they pay property tax/mello roos/HOA and skyrocketing insurance costs. Financed buyers are losing even more because their cost of capital (the mortgage rate) exceeds the rate of appreciation on the home.

You can't borrow money at 4-5% and expect to make money when appreciation in Irvine is less than 2% a year!!

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You've been singing the same jelly tune about Irvine for years... I feel sorry for the people who listened to you in 2010, 2013, 2018... and on and on and on.

The WTF thread is hilarious because the WTF from previous years look like bargains now.

And don't get me wrong... Irvine prices are insane... but to keep saying people who buy in Irvine are in for "pain", "doom", "financial disaster" is not knowing the room.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
You've been singing the same jelly tune about Irvine for years... I feel sorry for the people who listened to you in 2010, 2013, 2018... and on and on and on.

The WTF thread is hilarious because the WTF from previous years look like bargains now.

And don't get me wrong... Irvine prices are insane... but to keep saying people who buy in Irvine are in for "pain", "doom", "financial disaster" is not knowing the room.
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The people that listened to me did very well financially. I was encouraging others to buy in 2010 and I bought a house myself that year, for which I took a lot of flak from the permabears of that era. awgee predicted I would lose 40% on the home and that I would regret selling all my gold near the peak in 2011, but he was wrong on both counts.

Irvine suffered a predicted downturn in 2018 and those that refrained from buying, like Kenkoko, saved a lot of dough according to their own testimonials here on TI. The rest of OC did not have a downturn and massively outperformed Irvine over that same time. That has always made you mad because it destroyed the "Irvine is special / last to deline / first to recover" myth that you used to promote.

Now we have the current stagnation -- Irvine has not gone anywhere and is actually declining in REAL terms, yet these poor fools keep falling for the hype. You are contributing to their financial ruin by engaging in the hype yourself. The chart you posted fails to include the cyclical peak in April 2022. It's sad that you would engage in this nonsense, but not surprising.
 
More dancing... you like to use these offshoot stories but more people who bought when you said not to were better off.

Your 2010 recount is flawed as I've quoted posts from you saying anyone who buys 2010+ were knife catchers and in for a world of pain... which you have repeated several times throughout the years hoping you would eventually be right.

Kenkoko would be in a much better place if he bought back in 2013 or 2018 or even 2022 (when you kept saying Irvine was in for a drop) compared to what prices are now. Anyone would be... especially when rates were lower. You keep ignoring that simple fact.
 
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