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Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022

Where will Irvine housing prices be in one year?

  • Down over 50%

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Down 20%

    Votes: 20 19.0%
  • Down 10%

    Votes: 40 38.1%
  • Down 5%

    Votes: 31 29.5%
  • Flat

    Votes: 37 35.2%
  • Up 5%

    Votes: 15 14.3%
  • Up 10%

    Votes: 5 4.8%
  • Up 20%

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Up over 50%

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other (please specify in post)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    105
  • Poll closed .

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
Alright, put your crystal balls to the test.

1. Finite time frame, so 1 year from now.
2. Irvine housing only (this is TI after all)
3. You can pick up to 3
4. Can vote/edit for 2 months then it locks.

I think I listed enough options but let me know if I missed something. I don't think over 50% either way is possible.
 

CalBears96

Well-known member
I'm sticking to no more than 20%, so I'm choosing the options ranging from 5% to 20%, since it will drop for sure.
 

melodypowell

New member
I am hoping that it drops to 2019/early 2020 level around my neighborhood, I have been looking to purchase another one so our parents can eventually move closer to us~ we will see~
 

potsticker

Active member
I selected down 5-10%. However, I think the drop will be seen more in the $2m and up price range. Below $2m should be flat-ish from here on out, in my opinion.
 

Liar Loan

Well-known member
Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.
 

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
Liar Loan said:
Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

See this is stuff I can understand.

Quite different from your 2018 predictions of instant pain... so... given that (and I've read some of your other posts), we won't see significant drops for 5 or more years? Do I need another poll for that?
 

Liar Loan

Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
Liar Loan said:
Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

See this is stuff I can understand.

Quite different from your 2018 predictions of instant pain... so... given that (and I've read some of your other posts), we won't see significant drops for 5 or more years? Do I need another poll for that?

I don't think I ever predicted "instant" pain.  There are too many differences between 2018 and 2022 to really compare the two - 2018 was driven by rates and the SALT cap revealing the weakness of Irvine home buyers; This time will be a nationwide economic event that we tell our children and grandchildren about: "I remember when rates shot up from 2% to X% and all the pain that it caused." - Just like the Boomers of today love to talk about 13% mortgage rates in 1980.
 

OCtoSV

Active member
Lansner?s statistical modeling has him predicting 10% mortgage rates. I see that happening within 2 years and a slow burn up to 50% off for entry level properties with tbe $2M+ market being only cash transactions
 
Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Liar Loan said:
Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

See this is stuff I can understand.

Quite different from your 2018 predictions of instant pain... so... given that (and I've read some of your other posts), we won't see significant drops for 5 or more years? Do I need another poll for that?

I don't think I ever predicted "instant" pain.  There are too many differences between 2018 and 2022 to really compare the two - 2018 was driven by rates and the SALT cap revealing the weakness of Irvine home buyers; This time will be a nationwide economic event that we tell our children and grandchildren about: "I remember when rates shot up from 2% to X% and all the pain that it caused." - Just like the Boomers of today love to talk about 13% mortgage rates in 1980.

Thanks for the non commitment answer 🤡
 

Liar Loan

Well-known member
iu
 

Liar Loan

Well-known member
#CherryPicking #BrokenClock

Orange County home prices could fall 14%, says Chapman forecast

The school?s semiannual economic outlook, released Thursday, June 23, calls for a 14% drop in the local median selling price to June 2023 ? one of the first projections of significant declining home values. The forecast says Orange County?s median home price will go from $1.03 million in 2022?s first quarter to $891,000 by mid-2023. Sales counts will fall 20% this year alone.

Chapman?s previous forecasts were one of the few outlooks nationwide that saw problematic inflation emerging from a robust economic rebound out of the pandemic?s business chill. How did so many ?experts? miss that fallout from an overly stimulated economy ? and the obvious next step, surging interest rates?

?I can?t answer that other than to say people don?t know history and don?t believe in history,? Doti says. ?It gets you to this tulip mentality, Bitcoin mentality, that the markets are just going to keep going up.?

?Almost virtually every time the Fed has tightened monetary policy ? certainly when you?ve had this kind of inflation ? there?s never been a soft landing,? he says. ?So how can anybody believe in the soft landing? Why are people thinking home prices can continue to go up forever when we?ve seen, historically, periods that they don?t??

https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/23/orange-county-home-prices-could-fall-14-says-chapman-forecast/

 
Considering homes were trending at $800psf, 14% actually is not bad.

Im sticking to my prediction of prices falling close to Q3 2021 values.
 

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
Davidlee199 said:
See what the federal reserve said.  Don?t fight the Fed!!https://fortune.com/2022/06/16/housing-market-reset-federal-reserve-could-see-home-prices-fall/

Keep in mind 50% houses in Irvine are rentals. It makes no sense for landlords to keep the rentals if home prices are falling.  Many China FCBs landlords are selling now as rates on their 3/5 years mortgages are about to reset to 6-7% this year.

But what about the ones who locked in at lower fixed rates?
 

Liar Loan

Well-known member
zovall said:
Davidlee199 said:
Keep in mind 50% houses in Irvine are rentals.

This seems awfully high. Does anyone have actual numbers on this?

We could back into the number.

Irvine by type of home:
SFR & Townhome ~ 55%
Apts & Mobile Home ~ 45%

Irvine by ownership rate:
Owner ~ 44%
Renter ~ 56%
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/irvine/real-estate

So by using crude math, maybe 11% of SFR/Townhomes are rentals. 

It's not precise because we don't know the percentage of vacancies in each property type.  If apartment vacancies are higher than SFR/Townhomes, which seems likely, then maybe 14-15% of Irvine SFR/Townhomes are rentals.



 

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
As much as I would like to see 20%+ drops for Irvine... based on history... doesn't seem like that can happen in 1 year.

Most of the votes are flat... so maybe I need a poll for 5 years from now since that seems like the magic timeframe for LL.
 

Liar Loan

Well-known member
Wow.... More #brokenclocks than you can shake a stick at.  Even the California Association of Realtors agrees with me!!  For shame! For shame!

Southern California housing prices will fall, some experts say. The question is how much

?It?s noteworthy,? said Jordan Levine, chief economist at the California Assn. of Realtors. ?Prices are going to go down.?

Levine is still putting the final touches on a forecast to be released in July. But for now, he expects the California median sales price for all of 2022 to be up 9.7% from a year earlier, a sharp slowdown from the nearly 20% growth seen in 2021.

Then in 2023, he expects the Federal Reserve?s actions to fight inflation will cause a mild recession and the combination of job losses and higher rates will cause the statewide median price to fall 7.1% compared with this year, with similar declines in Southern California specifically.

Others that recently shifted forecasts to include home price declines in 2023 are Capital Economics, an international economic research firm, and John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine.

In May, John Burns started forecasting that both national and Southern California prices would decline next year, in part because the firm sees a recession as increasingly likely.

In 2023, the consulting firm expects declines in the mid single digits in Los Angeles and Orange counties and for prices to fall in the high single digit range in the Inland Empire.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody?s Analytics, said prices could fall even absent a recession.

But if rates rise to around 6.25% or 6.5% and hold there, Zandi said, Southern California prices would probably fall around 5% without a recession and potentially as much as 10% with a recession.


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LA Times article without paywallhttps://archive.ph/1hZRV#selection-2143.0-2143.195
 
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