Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022

[Liar Loan]

I haven't followed too close on the market trend, but I hear Irvine home prices haven't really dropped like other areas. Is that true?

The Median Home Price in Irvine is falling faster than Orange County at large.



But PPSF is falling more slowly in Irvine than Orange County at large.


Either way, anybody that closed on a home in the first half of this year has lost money.

 

[OCtoSV]

The Median Home Price in Irvine is falling faster than Orange County at large.

View attachment 8872

But PPSF is falling more slowly in Irvine than Orange County at large.

View attachment 8873
Either way, anybody that closed on a home in the first half of this year has lost money.

You know I'm Mr. Bear however I have been pretty impressed with the resilience of Irvine pricing - I think CB hit it on the head in terms of FCBs limiting supply. That said the vast majority of what is transacting is low end stuff hence the lower median. I am not seeing the collapse in $/sq ft I'm seeing in areas like Laguna Niguel.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Based on that Redfin chart, median prices will have to drop to high $900ks or PPSF has to be in the $550/sft range?

That puts 2000sft homes over $1m... isn't that still too high?

 

[usctrojancpa]

The Median Home Price in Irvine is falling faster than Orange County at large.

View attachment 8872

But PPSF is falling more slowly in Irvine than Orange County at large.

View attachment 8873
Either way, anybody that closed on a home in the first half of this year has lost money.

LL, the median price per square foot for both Irvine and Orange County topped out in May 2022. The median price per square fott for Irvine went from $729/sf to $660/sf or a 9.5% decrease while the median price per SF for Orange County went from $631/sf to $569/sf or a 9.8% decrease. From what I'm seeing and hearing, most cities outside of Irvine are suffering a little more than Irvine with less buyers. I'll have a year-end write-up a week or so after year-end on Irvine.

 

[Liar Loan]

Based on that Redfin chart, median prices will have to drop to high $900ks or PPSF has to be in the $550/sft range?

That puts 2000sft homes over $1m... isn't that still too high?

Historically, these busts always end in something close to rental parity being achieved, so a combination of lower sales prices, increased rents, or declining interest rates could all play a role before a bottom is reached.

LL, the median price per square foot for both Irvine and Orange County topped out in May 2022. The median price per square fott for Irvine went from $729/sf to $660/sf or a 9.5% decrease while the median price per SF for Orange County went from $631/sf to $569/sf or a 9.8% decrease. From what I'm seeing and hearing, most cities outside of Irvine are suffering a little more than Irvine with less buyers. I'll have a year-end write-up a week or so after year-end on Irvine.

I think Redfin does a 3-month rolling average so their numbers may not align exactly with yours. Also, they are only displaying through the end of October, and you probably have more current stats.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Historically, these busts always end in something close to rental parity being achieved, so a combination of lower sales prices, increased rents, or declining interest rates could all play a role before a bottom is reached.


I think Redfin does a 3-month rolling average so their numbers may not align exactly with yours. Also, they are only displaying through the end of October, and you probably have more current stats.

Redfin's numbers can be off at time. My data comes from the Infosparks Market Statistics section in MLS through 11/30/22. I think I predicted back in Jan 2022 that we would be up in early 2022 and then end up around flat for 2022 by the end of the year and it's looking like that'll be a pretty close prediction. I do see some additional downside in pricing but how much will depend on where rates go, if they drop that will cushion price declines. The reality is that the bid/ask spread between buyers and sellers is growing and only those properties that show well and that are priced right sell in a timely manner while the stubborn seller/dreamer listings linger on the market like a bad habit.